Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[NWMSGuy]

Really interesting look on the RGEM for the MidSouth region on its last frame:

 

[CaryWx]

That's a fropa coming thru on Thurs for NC per NWS RAH.

edit: Per their afternoon discussion this will stall out stationary to the south where they expect a wave *could* form and move along it with snow to the north.

 

[wxdaniel]

Does anyone really see a lost storm as these guys are talking about? I see it on the models. In variations of location and intensity of course but it's there. Strung out or not.

The problem we been having the past couple of days is to many mby statements. We have anarchy going on on these forums now and it’s getting annoying. NOAA Chat is open.


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[accu35]

Really interesting look on the RGEM for the MidSouth region on its last frame:
View attachment 106911

It’s almost like that system Combining with an over running event?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Gfs continues to leave energy in the sw

 

[Cary_Snow95]

The good news is the gfs is trending better but just not quite giving up on leaving that energy

 

[Hypsometric]

Hopefully this is the start of a new trend.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

It’s not ideal but it’s much improved

 

[brendan123]

Much improved for storm chances for the first potential system on Fri/Sat or the second potential system later in the weekend?

 

[accu35]

Second wave

 

[DopplerWx]

I keep telling myself if the gfs showed a hit at 120 id be scared to death and investing in snow shovels in Kentucky.

 

[Arcc]

Big phaser incoming.

 

[accu35]

Incoming

 

[DopplerWx]

Look at that beast

 

[Hypsometric]

This looks bizarre. And I know the 12z euro did something similar.

 

[TileDude]

Birmingham NWS is totally discounting the next system.


LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0248 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022/

No changes are needed to the mid week system with a weak southern
stream wave and surface front moving through the area. Cannot rule
out a few thunderstorms, mainly in the south Wednesday afternoon,
but strong or severe storms are not expected.

Looking toward the end of the week, dry conditions are expected
behind the exiting front through the end of the work week, as
models have trended drier with a shortwave on Friday. An arctic
airmass will spread across the eastern conus, bringing several
days of cold temperatures to Central Alabama. Highs will struggle
into the upper 30s to mid 40s areawide Friday and Saturday, with
lows in the 20s. A shortwave will dive southward Thursday night
into Friday, but will no longer have enough moisture associated
with it for precipitation. Will remove rain/wintry mix chances and
the mention of winter from the HWO for Friday. This could change,
and we might have to add it back into the forecast as models
refine a series of troughs and moisture return.

 

[DopplerWx]

Hello there

 

[Arcc]

Good grief it’s gonna be 12/17 on steroids.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Another monster but 30 hours later. Gfs clearly likes the second wave better. I prefer the first though simply because the cold air source is dream worthy on Friday morning

 

[NWMSGuy]

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The energy kicks on the 18z GFS though, on the 12z Euro it just...kind of dies.

Would honestly prefer the first wave though.

 

[Storm5]

Saturday afternoon hour 144 ....

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[NickyBGuarantee]

If we don’t hit the first system looks like that second one will have our backs although there would be more of a CAD to the second system we would have to watch mixing issues

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I believe we are gonna see a lot of different runs. Anyway I like the chillier pattern it’s rare we don’t scorch after winter weather it’s about time we stay in winter like temps

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I like the euro solution far better IMO, as listed above but most importantly, it’s closer

 

[accu35]

Second storm will start in early as Friday in areas to the west towards Tx/La

 

[MSnowAtl]

The energy kicks on the 18z GFS though, on the 12z Euro it just...kind of dies.

Would honestly prefer the first wave though.

I think the Euro has a bias to hold back the energy in the sw I believe.

 

[HKY1994]

I trust the gfs over any model right now it is on a hot streak this winter!


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[CaryWx]

If we don’t hit the first system looks like that second one will have our backs although there would be more of a CAD to the second system we would have to watch mixing issues

Agree. Hugging the coast again

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I trust the gfs over any model right now it is on a hit streak this winter!


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Yes, it’s sniffed things out early and other models have followed suit. The new king.

 

[Arcc]

Some how missed the phase though. Dangerous ground there.

 

[brendan123]

I personally like the look of the first potential threat better as there’s more cold air available, it’s better to be suppressed than in the bullseye at this range, ect ect ect… and while the operational models have somewhat lost the system, the ensembles certainly haven’t and even look better today

 

[EastmanGAWX]

The GFS solution is a crippling 1988/1964 style ice storm for Central Georgia.

 

[accu35]

Lol, gefs picking up on that front like the RGEM

 

[LickWx]

@Rain Cold . Check the last 5 runs out , went from central gulf to running inland here almost

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I won't be 100% sure for a little bit but it "seems" like the GEFS is gonna mostly honk for Sunday instead of a day earlier.

 

[Zander98al]

Will say one thing, seems like colder air will be in place for this one thankfully, no relying on dynamic cooling for this event for us in Alabama it seems.

 

[accu35]

I won't be 100% sure for a little bit but it "seems" like the GEFS is gonna mostly honk for Sunday instead of a day earlier.

Lot of members are coming in view Friday also

 

[brendan123]

I like this look

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Gonna take several days in sunny Florida and hopefully come back to another foot of snow.