Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[Hypsometric]

those temps View attachment 106854View attachment 106855View attachment 106856

With 15:1 ratios I guess we can afford a little less qpf

 

[Deleted member 609]

Too early to see how nam is treating energy late in run?

 

[Hypsometric]

Too early to see how nam is treating energy late in run?

I’m assuming since it get’s it’s boundary conditions from the GFS, it’s going to be similar to it so until the energy is sampled it may not differ much.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I like this NAM run a lot more

 

[Ollie Williams]

Too early to see how nam is treating energy late in run?

The NAM is much better, much more in line with the big dog setups!

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I like this NAM run a lot more View attachment 106862

Kiss of death over northern Texas lol

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

That doesn't include today's does it??

YES! SADLY SO!?

 

[Hypsometric]

I’m assuming since it get’s it’s boundary conditions from the GFS, it’s going to be similar to it so until the energy is sampled it may not differ much.

The NAM is much better, much more in line with the big dog setups!
View attachment 106863

Either I have no clue what I’m talking about or the 18z GFS is about to be a lot better. 50/50 chance lol.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

It’s never to early to look at the NAM ???

 

[Cary_Snow95]

It’s never to early to look at the NAM ???

Well the energy in question comes into view around hour 60. Def worth looking at

 

[Ollie Williams]

This would have pulled a big dog had it continued.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Can you spot the difference?

 

[Hypsometric]

View attachment 106864This would have pulled a big dog had it continued.

Agreed. It looked better than the CMC!

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Just changed to some snow/sleet here in Mooresville. Kinda surprised


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[Arcc]

The good news is we can win this one with a Miller A or with the very deep cold air, overrunning.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Agreed. It looked better than the CMC!

It looks almost identical to yesterday's 12z Euro.

 

[Ollie Williams]

The good news is we can win this one with a Miller A or with the very deep cold air, overrunning.

Or both.

 

[Arcc]

Or both.

I would love a long term overrunning and then the second wave eject for a Miller A.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Tomer Burg likes our potential.

 

[Parker]

This is the ONE!

 

[Storm5]

View attachment 106888


This is the ONE!

This is most definitely the one . Let's real it in


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[TheBatman]

View attachment 106888


This is the ONE!

Wouldn’t have that for Huntsville? Hate to ask. Lol

 

[BullCityWx]

Things were a mess today there and RDU. Hope you don’t get hamstrung by residual delays

I’m flying out of CLT tomorrow (hopefully) so I expect you’ll have this thing heading toward 85 & 40 by the time I get home next weekend!

 

[jackendrickwx]

If it doesn’t snow this weekend in the Carolinas, lots of whiffs

 

[packfan98]

Anyone want to extrapolate the 18z RGEM? I sure miss the DGEX!

 

[BullCityWx]

Anyone want to extrapolate the 18z RGEM? I sure miss the DGEX!

Oh you know it would throw us a crazy run at some point

 

[KyloG]

Interesting….

 

[DopplerWx]

 

[KyloG]

Anyone want to extrapolate the 18z RGEM? I sure miss the DGEX!

We hug the RGEM

 

[Flotown]

What's the chances this one could affect us further north and west,say northwest bama???

 

[Tokenfreak]

Interesting….

What does this mean in simpler terms lol? I’m still learning weather talk. Thanks


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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Things were a mess today there and RDU. Hope you don’t get hamstrung by residual delays

Thanks. Hoping so too. Already seeing cancellations for morning flights tomorrow

 

[Hypsometric]

Anyone want to extrapolate the 18z RGEM? I sure miss the DGEX!

Not quite as good as the 18z NAM, but definitely an improvement over the 12z RGEM and looks like it would produce something to me as the northern stream is digging and would probably capture at least part of that southern wave, though probably not the whole thing. IMO.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Our storm is almost in NAM range at this point .. sheesh I hope we real it in quickly and cleanly

 

[CaryWx]

Does anyone really see a lost storm as these guys are talking about? I see it on the models. In variations of location and intensity of course but it's there. Strung out or not.

 

[KyloG]

What does this mean in simpler terms lol? I’m still learning weather talk. Thanks


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Stronger short wave out in the pacific correlates to higher potential for an event…slp off NC coast.

 

[TheBatman]

What's the chances this one could affect us further north and west,say northwest bama???

It’s a 50/50 chance I would say.

 

[Arcc]

Not quite as good as the 18z NAM, but definitely an improvement over the 12z RGEM and looks like it would produce something to me as the northern stream is digging and would probably capture at least part of that southern wave, though probably not the whole thing. IMO.

View attachment 106898

I’d that northern wave trends like the last one, we may not need the southern wave.

 

[Hypsometric]

I’d that northern wave trends like the last one, we may not need the southern wave.

This is definitely another way to get there! If nothing else, if the northern wave starts digging more and can just capture a small portion of vorticity streamers from the southern wave, it would still net out about the same most likely.

 

[Arcc]

This is definitely another way to get there! If nothing else, if the northern wave starts digging more and can just capture a small portion of vorticity streamers from the southern wave, it would still net out about the same most likely.

Agreed. While past events are over used as analogs, that is a digging northern wave from a 12/7/17 type solution.