That’s the one I’m really interested in, not the one lizard lick posted
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Snowflowxxl
Member
I’m all in on Friday. The Sunday storm has too many potential issues
Montanasnow30
Member
@Parker Can you post one for Phenix City Alabama asking for a friend
Oh boy, several GEFS members are gonna has a second wave after the front and then a second threat late weekend.
NWMSGuy
Member
NCSNOW
Member
brendan123
Member
Honestly if the second wave still looks like a threat after a few more runs it should probably get its own thread to avoid confusion, at least in my opinion
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Wait until it's well defined that there will be two destinct waves.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Well, I was wrong. GEFS seems as if it mostly (like 12/20 were a yes or a just miss for earlier in the weekend) was a yes for the first system, but it's showing other chances as well.
Wonder if that actually happens.
Wonder if that actually happens.
There it is. Based on the GEFS look, probably gonna be more overrunning with threat #1.
Almost every member got Friday wave.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
So far GEFS reducing snow on I-20, increasing mean on I-40
Good signal for second wave.
Flotown
Member
accu35
Member
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Keep it in here please
Yes. We already know the progression here. Why? Because we've seen it 10,000,000 times. Can you tell me what's missing from this image in the spot that's marked? Hint: It's the secret ingredient for board-wide snowstorms.@Rain Cold. Check the last 5 runs out , went from central gulf to running inland here almost
View attachment 106938
I like this one much better:
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Flotown
Member
Thanks
Flotown
Member
A once inch mean at this range I'll take
Yeah I like keeping them together right now until we get a little clarity on the leading wave
18z GEFS Ens Mean Snow on SV for Fri-Mon
JLL1973
Member
I was thinking the same thing. I looking at next Sunday system but others are looking at a midweek system and a Friday system. I’m confused
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Incredible, big overlap with cold and moisture. I'm going to buy me some chains for my car tires lol. Looks like we may see a slammer here.
18z GEFS Ens Mean Snow on SV for Fri-Mon
Wow, that is about a pretty of a setup as ever for central/south Alabama. Let’s go!
If you want to really shoot for the stars we could make 2 out of this. With overrunning initially and a more wound up trailer wave
Good news is overrunning precip totals can be crazy undermodeled.
Grit posted a gif earlier of my thinking honestly. It's not uncommon to have multiple waves ride along a stalled out Arctic front giving smaller events, and something I'm honestly rooting for right now. Instead of one big bad wave that MAY over amplify.
Even with that, we could still have the small waves and a bigger one when all is said and done.
Stormlover
Member
GFS next Sat night
I tend to agree with this statement but this is something we haven't seen in many years. A VERY strong front which stalls off of the coast then over running moisture. These come in waves. The models are having a hard time with a consistent solution, thus the ensembles are the way to go. Something is most likely going to occur next Friday, Saturday, or Sunday but is it going to be one day or multiple?
This is how NWS RAH described in their 3:45pm discussion:
Following Arctic high pressure will sprawl ewd from the nrn Plains
to the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, with what may be the coldest
airmass of the season for cntl NC by Fri through the weekend. It
will be the srn extent of that Arctic drape, where both isentropic
lift and cyclogenesis may become energized by the aforementioned low
predictability shortwave troughs aloft, where precipitation --
including wintry on the poleward side-- will be possible, including
near or just southeast of cntl NC. To reiterate, those details and
the sensible weather impacts, with the threat of precipitation
spreading nwd into the Arctic air, remain highly uncertain - but a
possibility worth monitoring as those details are hopefully resolved
during the coming days.
Following Arctic high pressure will sprawl ewd from the nrn Plains
to the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, with what may be the coldest
airmass of the season for cntl NC by Fri through the weekend. It
will be the srn extent of that Arctic drape, where both isentropic
lift and cyclogenesis may become energized by the aforementioned low
predictability shortwave troughs aloft, where precipitation --
including wintry on the poleward side-- will be possible, including
near or just southeast of cntl NC. To reiterate, those details and
the sensible weather impacts, with the threat of precipitation
spreading nwd into the Arctic air, remain highly uncertain - but a
possibility worth monitoring as those details are hopefully resolved
during the coming days.
May not get resolved until those radiosondes (wave-offshore pacific) come in Tues morning
That general look, is extremely similar to February 2014, and that Arctic front
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I liked the look of the 18Z icon with the energy out west.