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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Only have the snow mean, but based off of it, this EPS run is fantastic
Model crack atp 
Still going to, there might already be a 5 inch mean in some spots
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brendan123
Member
5 inch snow mean imby... the inevitable rug pull's gonna hurt
(Edit: And it's still going... somewhere in SE Virginia's gonna reach 6 inches this run)
Pretty classic evolution on the EPS to what gives the SE and the Carolinas esp significant winter storms, basically overrunning to a Miller A 
iGRXY
Member
A 4” mean is crazy this far out
griteater
Member
Snow on EPS Mean on SV
rburrel2
Member
Good googly moogly what a snow mean on the EPS.... huge signal! This threat looks even more legit than our current storm did 5 days out, and it looked great too!
These looks are giving me vibes of the January 2002 storm
griteater
Member
Latest thoughts from WPC...
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 19 2022 - 12Z Sun Jan 23 2022
...Pattern Overview...
...Of the main shortwaves, the first should slide over the Great Lakes into the Northeast Wednesday and Thursday, with the next tending to dig more sharply into the South Friday and up off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast Saturday. There is significant forecast spread and run to run uncertainty with this latter feature and associated mid-winter weather focus with frontal wave/coastal low genesis.
...The wavy trailing cold front on the leading edge of this Arctic blast will gain some Gulf moisture to fuel an emerging area of precipitation up from the South/Southeast. Guidance varies however with potential focus due to ample run to run trough track/separation uncertainty aloft later week into the weekend. The pattern offers potential into later week for an enhanced swath of overrunning snow/ice on the northern periphery of activity. A cluster of multi-model ensemble members along with in particular the 18 UTC GFS and now the latest 00UTC ECMWF/Canadian models, are much more robust with frontal wave to coastal low/storm genesis and mid-winter precipitation extent across the region and up the East Coast at these longer time periods. However, the 00 UTC GFS has backed off. The preferred model and composite trends WPC product continuity toward more organized and closer to the coast genesis and track, but not at this point as strong as some of the models.
Schichtel
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 19 2022 - 12Z Sun Jan 23 2022
...Pattern Overview...
...Of the main shortwaves, the first should slide over the Great Lakes into the Northeast Wednesday and Thursday, with the next tending to dig more sharply into the South Friday and up off the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast Saturday. There is significant forecast spread and run to run uncertainty with this latter feature and associated mid-winter weather focus with frontal wave/coastal low genesis.
...The wavy trailing cold front on the leading edge of this Arctic blast will gain some Gulf moisture to fuel an emerging area of precipitation up from the South/Southeast. Guidance varies however with potential focus due to ample run to run trough track/separation uncertainty aloft later week into the weekend. The pattern offers potential into later week for an enhanced swath of overrunning snow/ice on the northern periphery of activity. A cluster of multi-model ensemble members along with in particular the 18 UTC GFS and now the latest 00UTC ECMWF/Canadian models, are much more robust with frontal wave to coastal low/storm genesis and mid-winter precipitation extent across the region and up the East Coast at these longer time periods. However, the 00 UTC GFS has backed off. The preferred model and composite trends WPC product continuity toward more organized and closer to the coast genesis and track, but not at this point as strong as some of the models.
Schichtel
Last edited:
Yeah, very similar setup at 500mb, but this system has less of a 50/50 low. If the search bar were available, I would go and find it.
mydoortotheworld
Member
This looks ”better” than our current storm, as in I don’t think the current storm looked this good 6-7 days prior, at least for the I20 corridor. I’m pretty convinced ATL benefits most from overrunning setups just like this, with 12/7/17 & 1/28/14 on my mind (anyone have any other good ex?)
From RAH:
Uncertainty continues to remain for the Fri-Sat timeframe. The
GFS/Canadian/ECMWF all show a deeper mid-level trough digging from
the Great Plains and Midwest region into the southeast US late Fri
night. However, the models differ on the overall position, track,
and intensity of the shortwave, as well as in regards to the track
and development of a potential Miller Type A surface low tracking
along the western Atlantic along the arctic frontal boundary. The
GFS is faster and more offshore by Sat, while the ECMWF/Canadian are
closer to the coast. The cold air in place would largely favor snow,
but if the low moves further inland, it could result in a mix of
rain or snow. Many of the GEFS/NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble members show
precipitation in this timeframe, which would favor a solution closer
to the ECMWF/Canadian, so have kept chances for snow toward the end
of the period.
&&
Uncertainty continues to remain for the Fri-Sat timeframe. The
GFS/Canadian/ECMWF all show a deeper mid-level trough digging from
the Great Plains and Midwest region into the southeast US late Fri
night. However, the models differ on the overall position, track,
and intensity of the shortwave, as well as in regards to the track
and development of a potential Miller Type A surface low tracking
along the western Atlantic along the arctic frontal boundary. The
GFS is faster and more offshore by Sat, while the ECMWF/Canadian are
closer to the coast. The cold air in place would largely favor snow,
but if the low moves further inland, it could result in a mix of
rain or snow. Many of the GEFS/NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble members show
precipitation in this timeframe, which would favor a solution closer
to the ECMWF/Canadian, so have kept chances for snow toward the end
of the period.
&&
Oh 
Broken024
Member
Oh yea
Something else right behind it to lol 
GFS is hinting at the same system to euro has 