Eh, we saw flakes today, but that's about it outside of the mountains. I'm really not excited about another borderline temperature event. I know that makes up the bulk of our events, but that doesn't mean that I like them. It also doesn't help that the first year I moved here we had a blockbuster snow at 24 degrees and several more cold snows after.I’m moving to Huntsville or ATL. It just snows there all the time. ?
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Elongated just like gfs and euro
Not really. The n/s vorticity is extended out to eastern Montana just like the 12z CMC. That is still much further west than any of the other models, so the run would have likely produced something.
That ended up being two distinct waves with a ULL tailing after.
It’s funny that you should mention February 2014 with this, because there some other similarities. Back before those two back to back storms, the models had the overall idea of a storm, especially in the ensembles, but seemed early on to have trouble catching on to the different pieces of energy and how they would come together. It was as we got to about 48 hours or so before the first system that they were latched on to the idea of two separate storms. I think there’s a decent chance that might be happening right now.
The RGEM and NAM are also both similar to the CMC.
Control?
That's the operational.
Go back Jan 2000. Same deal artic front rolled through and we got a weekend weak sauce event. Front stalled over gulf coast and Monday a ns shortwave dropped right in the basket
Dude that weekend event in January 2000 wasn’t weak sauce for everyone. All of CLT metro back through the SC upstate got widespread 4-6” out of it with up to a .25” of ice on top… that was a great few days for me
Is this improved compared to12z control?
That is blasted close. Nice WSW flow aloft. I’ll take that look at 90hrs anyday.
Ladies and gents….allow me to boldly state that this will verify….for the simple reason that I’m driving up to Beech on Sun (23rd). Of course we’d get a big dawg at home when I’m packing driving and can’t enjoy?GFS next Sat night
This is a better mean that the one for today’s storm. And it over performed. I’ll take this all day.
Yeah, lots of members are relatively weak/suppressed coastal overrunning events. It wouldn't take much of a trend to change that.
My last big event, a long time ago, that wasn't a spring snow, was one of three in about 10 days. Two set the table and the third shut down the city. I love it when that happens
Hope you got something decent out of this one.
Unlike the previous event we are looking at hr 100 and any wrong trend can quickly nail the
. I hope I’m wrong and this works out for someone even if it’s for @Downeastnc
That is the first setup that comes to mind....Maybe even colder than that setup as well.
Definitely a possibility. The good thing about those overrunning set ups from LP that forms on an Arctic front is that they always have a more expansive precip shield to the north and west than what models will typically show at first. That’s what happened with the February 2010 storm… 24 hours before that started I was forecasted a chance of light snow… no accumulation. By late the next morning I was under a Winter Storm Warning and ended up with 5”
Is this regarding Friday or Sunday?
This 100%!!! Phases can be fun when they work, but there is no better way to get a good widespread southern snowstorm than a solid Arctic airmass in place and a 1018-1020mb low pressure riding a stalled out front near the Gulf Coast
Overrunning snow events, where a true arctic front moves through the area, stalls out and waves move along the boundary bringing us bouts of wintry precipitation have been very infrequent over the last couple of decades.
January 2011 was probably the last major overrunning event, but there have definitely been smaller ones… the Atlanta Snowjam in 2014 for instance. We are really overdue for one. 1988 had such impressive amounts due to a strong mid-level jet that helped provide extra lift. January 2011 could have been similar further east into the Carolinas, but the jet was pulling out and the wave quickly dampened out. They can generate great QPF just simply from the forcing of the warm Gulf moisture running over the top of the Arctic airmass producing great forcing. These don’t have real strong warm noses so the mixed precip is generally in a narrow band just to the north of the path of the low. This is a set up that honestly we are quite overdue for
Thank you! Are there any hints at that showing on the modeling, any reason to look for that? All I've seen are results of the energy phasing or not, surface systems forming off the coast at different spots. Just wondering what overrunning looks like on the models.
