Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[RobertRath]

I expanded the dates of this thread . There is the late Thursday Friday late bloomer thread . Then Saturday into Sunday here is this bad boy gfs and euro have it

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North to coast with that L please.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Mean went down.
00z
View attachment 106579
06z
View attachment 106580

The Euro Control looks good though.

 

[Shawn]

Looks like the multiple storm chances in succession to one another are from various runs bring different amounts of energy, with some leaving it trailing, others bringing the whole package, etc. I'd assume these ensemble means & Winter weather maps are going to be confusing as all Hell over the coming days.

 

[griteater]

Mean went down.

EPS Mean was more positive tilt with the wave this run...resulting in a more suppressed look

 

[Shawn]

The Euro Control looks good though.
View attachment 106585
View attachment 106586

I hate to see that 850mb 0c line already retreating North in South Carolina so early on in the runs. Guess we know where this is going for the Central Midlands.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Really like where this one sits 6 days out.

 

[CaryWx]

Looks like the multiple storm chances in succession to one another are from various runs bring different amounts of energy, with some leaving it trailing, others bringing the whole package, etc. I'd assume these ensemble means & Winter weather maps are going to be confusing as all Hell over the coming days.

Have to wonder if this is one storm next weekend the models don't have a handle yet though

 

[Shaggy]

So when do we expect the pieces of energy to get onshore and sampled better? Until.then trust nothing and just watch the trends at H5

 

[Myfrotho704_]

looks like we’re already beginning the event at hour 126yet again, this setup looks to feature a very deep cold air damming setup with a 1039 HP to our north, in fact the mean high for areas north of I-20 is already in the 20s On Friday

 

[Shaggy]

looks like we’re already beginning the event at hour 126View attachment 106601View attachment 106602yet again, this setup looks to feature a very deep cold air damming setup with a 1039 HP to our north, in fact the mean high for areas north of I-20 is already in the 20s On Friday View attachment 106607View attachment 106608View attachment 106606View attachment 106605

This really is the best part of this threat and that's by tonight it will be inside 120 already.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The members that have snow to our N on the EPS still have well below temps, signaling mixed precipitation, we’re getting into that range where it’s almost safe to say this might be legit

 

[Storm5]

Does the EPS pick up on the late weekend system the euro and gfs op have ?


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[Chazwin]

looks like we’re already beginning the event at hour 126View attachment 106601View attachment 106602yet again, this setup looks to feature a very deep cold air damming setup with a 1039 HP to our north, in fact the mean high for areas north of I-20 is already in the 20s On Friday View attachment 106607View attachment 106608View attachment 106606View attachment 106605

Geez… it’s like mother nature wants to make up for all these weak CADs we’ve seen the last few years, with super CADs

 

[Ollie Williams]

Does the EPS pick up on the late weekend system the euro and gfs op have ?


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Yeah, this was the 00z EPS

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah, this was the 00z EPS
View attachment 106621

Normally I’d be nervous about a trend like that, but temps/HP placement and everything looked absolutely great, just H5 was more supportive a flatter system, definitely still like the 06z EPS

 

[CaryWx]

Normally I’d be nervous about a trend like that, but temps/HP placement and everything looked absolutely great, just H5 was more supportive a flatter system, definitely still like the 06z EPS

The mean is further south with the precip though so that's a good sign

 

[Ollie Williams]

The mean is further south with the precip though so that's a good sign

It's slightly warmer at the 850s because the n/s wave is a little weaker, but it's rather trivial.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

I hate to see that 850mb 0c line already retreating North in South Carolina so early on in the runs. Guess we know where this is going for the Central Midlands.

The 0c is like is but the runs are getting colder for us in midlands. Maybe this will be the real ice storm?

 

[KyloG]

Control run is just getting started too....usual caveats apply with a day 5-6 model run