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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

There is very little not to love about this setup.....its gonna waver some in the runs but the overall setup and look is classic NC statewide type event....the initial snow will focus out west but then the coastal low will form and central and eastern NC will get a payday.......as will the northern half of SC midlands..

I am seriously more worried this ends up so suppressed the beaches get a foot while I get flurries than this ends up trending NW....
 
Downeastnc said:
There is very little not to love about this setup.....its gonna waver some in the runs but the overall setup and look is classic NC statewide type event....the initial snow will focus out west but then the coastal low will form and central and eastern NC will get a payday.......as will the northern half of SC midlands..

I am seriously more worried this ends up so suppressed the beaches get a foot while I get flurries than this ends up trending NW....
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To me this has the look of a January 2-3, 2002 type event. A decent overrunning event for the western Piedmont back into the foothills and mountains and then a good hit for areas east as the low bombed out at the coast
 
Chazwin said:
To me this has the look of a January 2-3, 2002 type event. A decent overrunning event for the western Piedmont back into the foothills and mountains and then a good hit for areas east as the low bombed out at the coast
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LOL that is exactly the storm I was thinking of along with the Jan 23rd 2003 event...

Honestly though we just need another Mar 1980....it had that initial thump with sleet and snow then it kind of hit pause for half a day then boom as the coastal got captured and went nuts....
 
Chazwin said:
To me this has the look of a January 2-3, 2002 type event. A decent overrunning event for the western Piedmont back into the foothills and mountains and then a good hit for areas east as the low bombed out at the coast
Click to expand...
Very similar look on a longwave scale, especially with how the phase of the waves. However, we are going to need to thread the needle to keep this one suppressed with less troughing over SE Canada
2013-2014 +PNA.png
ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2744800.png
 
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Downeastnc said:
LOL that is exactly the storm I was thinking of along with the Jan 23rd 2003 event...

Honestly though we just need another Mar 1980....it had that initial thump with sleet and snow then it kind of hit pause for half a day then boom as the coastal got captured and went nuts....
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I would be thrilled with a March 1980 again. I don’t remember it, but I see that it put down “only” 8” back my way while you guys out east had so much more…. Heck I’m thrilled today with true .5” of sleet I’ve had so far today since it’s the first time my yard has been white in nearly 3 years
 
Ollie Williams said:
Vert similar look on a longwave scale, especially with how the phase of the waves. However, we are going to need to thread the needle to keep this one suppressed with less troughing over SE Canada
View attachment 106656
View attachment 106658
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There's almost always less troughing over Canada 24 hours out that it appeared at 168 hours out. That's about 85% accurate.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Very similar look on a longwave scale, especially with how the phase of the waves. However, we are going to need to thread the needle to keep this one suppressed with less troughing over SE Canada
View attachment 106656
View attachment 106658
Click to expand...
Perhaps the higher heights near Greenland will help. I know it’s not exactly west based but anything should help… didn’t the January 2002 storm have a slightly positive NAO?
 
Parker said:
Mods, I did not mean to post the pics of the current storm in this thread. You guys can move. Sorry about that!
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No worries. Some of them are sideways though. Although that will get us in the proper mood, since most of our D7 storms end up sideways! ?
 
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