Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[iGRXY]

Now technically this has no bearing on how this system will progress but one thing I’ve seen after following these storms for years is the day 4-7 time frame is when the wheels falls off and everything that could possibly go wrong, goes wrong before the storm eventually comes back and we score. That technically means nothing as every storm is different but we are right in smacked in that timeframe so I’m not really worried right now.

 

[GaWx]

We’re immobilized from our slight little event with the arctic front .. while the beast is building in the gulf View attachment 107580

Comparing this 0Z NAM hour 84 to the 18Z GFS hour 90 for the 2nd wave:

1. It is much colder on the NW Gulf coast at 2M and at 850, but it is a little bit warmer in the SE.
2. The isobars suggest the surface low that would form just after this would probably be pretty far south in the W GOM.

 

[Stormdoc]

Just looks like that artic front is pretty wet with a small disturbance ridding it. That's the so-called 1st wave?

I guess, but I’m honestly having problems following all the waves. The GFs actually has some winter weather along the actual front, similar to the NAM, but the NAM is slightly later. Too much energy running around. Gives me pause that any of the models know what the heck is going to happen.

 

[KyloG]

ICON much weaker than Euro but solid winter event. Lots of ice south of I40.

 

[KyloG]

ICON precip and temps.

 

[bouncycorn]

RDPS looks nice so far.

 

[BullCityWx]

I don’t know that I can ever remember a -11 925MB layer before an event

 

[Rain Cold]

I don’t know that I can ever remember a -11 925MB layer before an event

Should limit zr, if real.

 

[WeatherNC]

RDPS looks nice so far.

Eyeballing supports a 2 wave scenario with the 2nd possibly being more significant for sensible impacts in the SE.

 

[MSnowAtl]

So, am I looking at this right...no second wave on the ICON!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Northern stream energy on the GFS looks far more improved this run so far

 

[bouncycorn]

Not much change in GFS thru hour 48 except northern energy is being held back a little more, continuing the earlier trend. May see an improvement overall.

 

[brendan123]

WAR continues to expand, 3 days ago on the GFS the 1020 line was a hundred miles offshore Cape Hatteras and now its modeled over Fayetteville

 

[bingcrosbyb]

1046HP sliding down.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Slowly folding, but the WAR at the same time is becoming a issue

 

[bouncycorn]

GFS Is starting to look a bit more like the euro thru hour 63. Southern energy a bit more progressive and northern energy slowing down a bit.

 

[HKY1994]

Grit called it when he said baby steps. Trend from 12z with northern stream energy is obvious. By 12z tomorrow we will have a phase on the gfs if not this run


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[KyloG]

UK day 4. Looks pretty good. Not going to be able to stay awake for precip maps later on.

 

[bouncycorn]

Run keep improving... hour 75 looks grand!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Run keep improving... hour 75 looks grand!

Lol this thing all the sudden starting looking great on the gfs at H5 around hour 70

 

[HKY1994]

Folded like a cheap lawn chair. That’s the gfs I know and love


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[Snowfan]

 

[brendan123]

Now we just need the Euro to pull a miracle and meet the GFS in the middle by trending less amped and colder... if only

 

[bouncycorn]

 

[Cary_Snow95]

??

 

[bouncycorn]

 

[malak05]

Precip Popping up back into AL at 96

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Enjoy it while it lasts

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Now the GFS looks as if it's going to leave that second wave back, but I thought that on 12z and then it was a go.

 

[wow]

Working it's way back to that 18z run on the 15th

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[accu35]

So we’re back to the first wave looking good?

 

[bingcrosbyb]

00z GFS getting closer. Holding back 2nd wave.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Working it's way back to that 18z run on the 15th

 

[bouncycorn]

TBH this run looks a lot like the euro.. pretty sizable adjustment.

 

[malak05]

So we’re back to the first wave looking good?

Seems better but much more room to improve

 

[CaryWx]

TBH this run looks a lot like the euro.. pretty sizable adjustment.

Yeah but much less brutal ice and a little better back to RDU

 

[Snownut]

NW she comes

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[NickyBGuarantee]

Enjoy it while it lasts View attachment 107619

12 or so hours of snow in the mid to low 20s … check! Here’s 10:1 but would expect those to be adjusted up for whoever ends up cold enough for snow

 

[KyloG]

Poor little GFS.