Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[GeorgiaGirl]

That is one big HP dropping out of Canada...

 

[iGRXY]

NAM looks like it’s heading for a phase

Edit: hold that

 

[Ollie Williams]

WAR looks more suppressed this run as the northern stream is quite a bit stronger.

850s are warmer than 12z at hr 60.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

WAR looks more suppressed this run as the northern stream is quite a bit stronger.

It actually looks a bit stronger, resulting in warmer 850s. which is natural in response to a phase but still, we need to work on this

 

[deltadog03]

 

[WeatherNC]

Glacier National Park is a very good northern stream entry point for phasing scenarios in the SE/southern Mid Atlantic, still chaotic at H5 with much more ejection out of the Baja, and a possible late clip / interaction in the southern plains. Going to take at-least another 48hrs to shake this out. Absence of a displaced 50/50 is concerning but not a deal breaker given the setup.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

View attachment 107565

I could be wrong but is this the first eps run that shows above freezing for 18z Saturday

 

[NCSNOW]

This run was literally 2” of snow and a bunch of sleet in the lower 20s

Yea , you me, everyone down 85 from SC to VA sit on the ole blue and/or pink line in like 90% of those 51 frames. Massive signal.

This high qpf has me perked. 1996 we got double digits off a snow, sleet, back to snow deal here.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here comes the Arctic front

 

[Montanasnow30]

View attachment 107570

@deltadog03 is this a good thing?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Guff

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

NAM sleeted us ?
We were about to go over to snow though if it progressed

 

[KyloG]

I’ll take this.

 

[iGRXY]

And this is before the actual storm that we’re looking at lol

 

[BullCityWx]

Good lord. That is insane.

 

[malak05]

And this is before the actual storm that we’re looking at lol

Yeap on 84 you can see the moisture welling up from Gulf back in MS and AL

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The nam Might have actually been a snow setup further south then the euro it was close, 850s were dragging down

 

[MSnowAtl]

Yeap on 84 you can see the moisture welling up from Gulf back in MS and AL

I see a narrow wintry mix on the backside across metro Atlanta...and this ain't even the storm. Wow!

 

[HKY1994]

The gfs should cave at 0z will be highly surprised if it doesn’t


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[LukeBarrette]

The nam Might have actually been a snow setup further south then the euro it was close, 850s were dragging down View attachment 107579

Looked like a wave was getting ready to ride the stalled front from the gulf into the sc/Nc/va region

 

[iGRXY]

The nam Might have actually been a snow setup further south then the euro it was close, 850s were dragging down View attachment 107579

Was just about to say the 850’s were actually pushing south before the main moisture began riding up

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

We’re immobilized from our slight little event with the arctic front .. while the beast is building in the gulf

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This thing imo needs to be suppressed for longer, this setup Involves the western Atlantic ridge

this post i put on sat is coming back to haunt us

 

[deltadog03]

@deltadog03 is this a good thing?

yes good jet structure coming together.

 

[BullCityWx]

The nam Might have actually been a snow setup further south then the euro it was close, 850s were dragging down View attachment 107579

Seems like that layer was the problem.

 

[CaryWx]

Seems like that layer was the problem.

Yes but do the 850s come on south or not. That system building off to the southwest was going to drive it back north right? (per euro run)

 

[deltadog03]

 

[BullCityWx]

Like @Myfrotho704_ mentioned, extracted data actually has snow here

 

[WeatherNC]

Somewhat bought in to a 2 wave scenario, perception long duration event. Good call out Delta!

 

[CaryWx]

Have to believe the gfs will come in with the 2 waves. Probably have its act together better than 18z but not as amped as the euro I hope.

 

[deltadog03]

Have to believe the gfs will come in with the 2 waves. Probably have its act together better than 18z but not as amped as the euro I hope.

It has been showing the 2 waves for awhile now. ( I think)

 

[griteater]

The gfs should cave at 0z will be highly surprised if it doesn’t


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It’s so far from the Euro suite though. It likes to do baby steps. That’s what I’d expect, a baby step

 

[Stormdoc]

The two wave scenario looks very plausible, but the Euro only shows one amped wave, correct? It seems to be if the one wave is amped then that would prevent a second wave from overrunning.

 

[CaryWx]

It has been showing the 2 waves for awhile now. ( I think)

Yes, but that 2nd one if I recall was rather wonky.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s so far from the Euro suite though. It likes to do baby steps. That’s what I’d expect, a baby step

If there’s one thing that gives me hope, it’s that models like to come together in the closer range and then the end to something together 1-2 days out, middle ground between the euro and GFS is quite honestly, money, but the GFS has had the same WAR issues

 

[iGRXY]

ICON looks better through 54 to me. N/S further south

 

[CaryWx]

The two wave scenario looks very plausible, but the Euro only shows one amped wave, correct? It seems to be if the one wave is amped then that would prevent a second wave from overrunning.

Just looks like that artic front is pretty wet with a small disturbance ridding it. That's the so-called 1st wave?

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The two wave scenario looks very plausible, but the Euro only shows one amped wave, correct? It seems to be if the one wave is amped then that would prevent a second wave from overrunning.

The Euro has two waves on the energy map, but it buries the second one. At least on the 12z, that's what it showed.

Honestly, idk that I would call what's shown on the NAM a second wave.

 

[CaryWx]

If there’s one thing that gives me hope, it’s that models like to come together in the closer range and then the end to something together 1-2 days out, middle ground between the euro and GFS is quite honestly, money, but the GFS has had the same WAR issues

WAR was more muted on 00z NAM at 84 though right?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

To me it just looks like the nam is picking up more wintry precip (sleet/ZR) as a mesoscale model because it’s feeling the SW flow aloft going parallel/slightly over the artic front as it dives south, creating WAA as the Arctic front is trying to ooze south, creating isentropic upglide from mid level WAA which is a forcing agent, something globals struggle with