Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[Metwannabe]

So Thursday front could be the one? Seems that way

Not the front but any wave that forms along that arctic front after it passes, timing still debatable at the moment.

 

[accu35]

No, what happens after that front on Thursday is from something else.

So it’s not from the tail end of that Thursday front? Trying to understand

 

[brendan123]

This just shows how we can potentially really score when we have real cold air to work with... pretty sure the last time the cold air/moisture lined up as well as this appears to be doing was January 2018

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

So it’s not from the tail end of that Thursday front? Trying to understand

The piece to the west is the energy of interest and precip develops from it as it interacts with the northern piece of energy.

 

[Metwannabe]

OMG y'all..... already arguing semantics in here. It's an arctic front that passes and wave(s) of low pressure try to form and move along it. They all play a role, it's mostly the wave that forms on the front that generates the potential winter storm

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Bet there will be a few big dogs ? on the ensembles for the Raleigh area

 

[CaryWx]

OMG y'all..... already arguing semantics in here. It's an arctic front that passes and wave(s) of low pressure try to form and move along it. They all play a role, it's mostly the wave that forms on the front that generates the potential winter storm

Yep and you're right about the fropa not likely to deliver any snow. That will just be some cold rain but not much of that I suspect.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Off of the Env Canada Website maps, it looks like the CMC is definitely not holding the wave back.

Edit: I'm looking at yesterday's 00z.

 

[Metwannabe]

Yep and you're right about the fropa not likely to deliver any snow. That will just be some cold rain but not much of that I suspect.

10-4 lol that wasn't really directed at you, just trying to keep that argument from snowballing and derailing the thread. Things can spiral out of control so fast haha

 

[accu35]

Coming in view

 

[accu35]

 

[Hypsometric]

Both the NAM and the RGEM continue to dig the northern stream wave way more than the GFS. Heck, I don't think the RGEM would even need the southern wave if it verified.

 

[Chandler]

Looks good

 

[CaryWx]

Is that going to phase?

 

[accu35]

Some big members on the 0z

 

[snowlover91]

Cmc close.

 

[Snowfan]

Even some freezing rain into the Florida panhandle.

 

[Shawn]

@accu35 to clear things up; there are multiple pieces of energy and the evolution of each is hard to pinpoint. There are some lighter events, then some bigger ones, especially when two pieces are phasing together.

What we are looking at to happen first is a strong cold front.. (Arctic) to push through and lay down some cold to allow the other pieces of energy to be able to ride along it and generate precipitation that gets thrown into the cold air; and we are also looking at a bigger deal a little down the road.

So the Arctic front itself, likely won't produce much of anything Wintry. It's what is going to ride along it, after it passes, that is.

 

[accu35]

@accu35 to clear things up; there are multiple pieces of energy and the evolution of each is hard to pinpoint. There are some lighter events, then some bigger ones, especially when two pieces are phasing together.

What we are looking at to happen first is a strong cold front.. (Arctic) to push through and lay down some cold to allow the other pieces of energy to be able to ride along it and generate precipitation that gets thrown into the cold air; and we are also looking at a bigger deal a little down the road.

So the Arctic front itself, likely won't produce much of anything Wintry. It's what is going to ride along it, after it passes, that is.

Thank you very much.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sheesh