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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Something to keep an eye on, historical precedence for NE NC / SE VA supports a DC skip followed by impacts in New England. 18Z EC mean kinda jives but not quite there.
 
griteater said:
Even with the control phasing and hitting the big cities, it keeps CLT in the mid-upper 20’s thru the storm

Looks like the GFS is in trouble, but only time will tell
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What I don’t like is there’s less 50/50 low/less confluence, this thing still has room to go more west, but at this point Charlotte looks to get another mixed bag, impactful winter storm, it begins in 78~ hours after all, the wiggle rooms for taking Charlotte out of this is shrinking just off time and improving modeling skill as we get closer. I don’t buy the GFS at all tho, as the 18z CMC looked to be even more amped
 
Just want to remind everyone worried that this storm is going too far west.... all of the other modeling has it way more weaker and suppressed. Like most of you, I think the recent Euro depictions are probably closer to the correct outcome than other models, but I don't think we're going stronger and west of where the Euro is now.... when all the other modeling is so weak. I expect the Euro to nudge back and little on the intensity while all other modeling plays catch up on strengthening. Just my two cents.
 
Means in phasing scenarios are very helpful to inside 72hrs, this is largely a partial phase as I read it. Ideally the southern stream is leading through south central TX, with a northern stream parcel catching up in SE OK, late hookup, this is atypical by standard but still may work for areas south of the NC/VA boarder.
 
This is dejuva/groundhog day movie if it ever was. Last Mon into Tues we where scrapping for an inch, rooting for amp.
Same thing is happening again. Storm track included. Maybe it will nudge east from this past Sunday storm a shade or 2. Nevertheless mby is gonna get precip with surface temps, low 20s and warm nose hopefully shallow enough to deliver sleet instead of freezing rain. Want complain about 4 inches of snow and sleet combo. White Ground is White Ground.
Thats my gut feeling right now. You go back and read last week, this is turning into the same movie. Thankfully,once again the CAD is gonna be so strong it saves the day from frzng rain here. I hope.
 
WeatherNC said:
Means in phasing scenarios are very helpful to inside 72hrs, this is largely a partial phase as I read it. Ideally the southern stream is leading through south central TX, with a northern stream parcel catching up in SE OK, late hookup, this is atypical by standard but still may work for areas south of the NC/VA boarder.
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Always thought we need hookups to happen at or past Mississippi River. We want the Low to close off past that point.
Usually if its sooner,they cut to far west for us
 
If you believe the EPS it rains for days in Raleigh. We got that to look forward to this weekend. ?

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NCSNOW said:
Always thought we need hookups to happen at or past Mississippi River. We want the Low to close off past that point.
Usually if its sooner,they cut to far west for us
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We do, my post was setting that stage, apologize for the confusion. Interaction starts ~ Ark-La-Tex, really dependent on how much energy can drop down in to the southern shortwave from the northern stream. Very close to constructive interference vs destructive, fine line and timing this go round / separation.
 
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Im extremely confident in all frozen or nothing 85 corridor, Triad esp where I have mby goggles on.
like all of us, Im always looking, chasing for the all snow precip type storm. Give Fro credit. The War and the 50/50 confluence are possibke red flags for the midlayers. Which is where my battle seems to be shaping up at.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
What I don’t like is there’s less 50/50 low/less confluence, this thing still has room to go more west, but at this point Charlotte looks to get another mixed bag, impactful winter storm, it begins in 78~ hours after all, the wiggle rooms for taking Charlotte out of this is shrinking just off time and improving modeling skill as we get closer. I don’t buy the GFS at all tho, as the 18z CMC looked to be even more amped
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Yes I’m becoming convinced that I’m gonna sleet my way to an above average snowfall total this winter… lol. In all seriousness this certainly does look to be a high impact event for the entire CLT metro area. One of the things that could really help drive this CAD to overperform even from as strong as it looks now is the additional snowpack to our north. Right now GSP has me at a low of 19 Friday night with precipitation, and while I think teens might be pushing it, 21-23 seems fairly reasonable
 
NCSNOW said:
Im extremely confident in all frozen or nothing 85 corridor, Triad esp where I have mby goggles on.
like all of us, Im always looking, chasing for the all snow precip type storm. Give Fro credit. The War and the 50/50 confluence are possibke red flags for the midlayers. Which is where my battle seems to be shaping up at.
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This run was literally 2” of snow and a bunch of sleet in the lower 20s
 
Something to keep in the back of your head is that one of these days, those ice maps are going to come to fruition. We're not always going to luck out with sleet saving the day. Especially given the fact this area is so overdue for one. A lot of us are. Not saying this event, but it's also not looking great either.
 
Does anyone know if you can run snowfall maps on these models to show different ratios other than Kuchera or 10:1. When the amount of sleet these soundings are indicative of it may help to have a snowfall map based on 3:1 ratios since that’s the normal for sleet. It would help considering just how poor these models seem to do with distinguishing sleet from ZR on their surface reflection
 
Well if there’s one thing the NAM
Just cleaned up it’s that shortwave that enters the pacific north west, note the western ridge is taller, I think our main focus now is trying to fix the northern stream energy that goes over the NE/SE Canada and strengthening it, to suppress the WAR
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Well if there’s one thing the NAM
Just cleaned up it’s that shortwave that enters the pacific north west, note the western ridge is taller, I think our main focus now is trying to fix the northern stream energy that goes over the NE/SE Canada and strengthening it, to suppress the WAR
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WAR looks more suppressed this run as the northern stream is quite a bit stronger.
 
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