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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Jessy89 said:
To be honest way euro temps are trending. A rain event for a lot of people can’t be ruled out. The ridge can’t be underestimated


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Not really… the cold push is still just as strong at the surface and up to about 925mb. That temp map you see is at 7am Friday before the CAD has really gotten fully established. You can see the cold is still push further south and west and the CAD is getting stronger
 
iGRXY said:
Everything was slower on that euro run so a lot of “warmer” trends when really it was being delayed. But trending strong with the WAR is the last thing you want to see.
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Wouldn't a Strong WAR bring in more WAA causing more Ice than snow?

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Chazwin said:
Not really… the cold push is still just as strong at the surface and up to about 925mb. That temp map you see is at 7am Friday before the CAD has really gotten fully established. You can see the cold is still push further south and west and the CAD is getting stronger
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With the snow pack up north...this CAD will be stronger than the last one...I can see alot of sleet for ATL turning into snow as the low passes.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Cold won’t be a problem! I think most would tank anything other than rain!
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If cold wasn’t a problem, and this system tracks along the coast then why wouldn’t we have all snow? Iv always heard for us to get a snowstorm we need cold in place and a storm from the gulf that tracks just off the coast?
 
Snownut said:
How much affect does the WAR have on me and you here in upstate?

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A lot if you want snow. Western Atlantic ridge can bring a lot of ice though especially with a stout wedge digging in. We toe a fine line when this feature shows up and as others have stated it usually trends stronger. Too much of it and it shoves our energy so far inland that we rain.
 
iGRXY said:
WAR only really affects temps aloft. Not at the surface. Precip was just starting to break out and CAD was filtering it quickly.
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Yeah but there will be more top down erosion of the CAD through latent heat release.


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I think the Icon might have the right idea here for the moment. Pretty much has the transition line along hwy 64 in NC from Murphy to Manteo, waffling 30-50 miles either direction from run to run. Its clown shows this. See how it shakes down at h5 placement of features next couple cycles. That will tell us alot
 
Stephenb888 said:
If cold wasn’t a problem, and this system tracks along the coast then why wouldn’t we have all snow? Iv always heard for us to get a snowstorm we need cold in place and a storm from the gulf that tracks just off the coast?
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Western Atlantic Ridge is trending stronger pushing more WAA aloft. Regardless of where the LP is on the coast, warmer air is still getting pushed into the upper atmosphere
 
NCSNOW said:
I think the Icon might have the right idea here for the moment. Pretty much has the transition line along hwy 64 in NC from Murphy to Manteo, waffling 30-50 miles either direction from run to run. Its clown shows this. See how it shakes down at h5 placement of features next couple cycles. That will tell us alot
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I love for it to be right. However, you should never underestimate the WAR, that's why you should go with the warmest model.
 
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