The Canadian did a really good job at modeling the warm nose.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Yes, but the northern stream seems to be lifting north by the western Atlantic ridge.
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Anyone know how the Chinese model usually does? It looks really nice lol.
Stephenb888
Member
No matter how the models play out, is the best we can expect from this is a small event? Or is there potential for a big event? Big snow?
Everything is on the table.
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People don’t want to hear it but it did pretty good last event, especially at the surface
Definitely potential for a big.. or even huge event.
However the GEFS has way less QPF and has more suppressed look at the sfc
I will never take the American model seriously with how it preformed in the last event but I guess we can’t turn a complete blind eye to what it’s showing
Snownut
Member
No but I will be really surprised if it's not on board with EURO tomorrow
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Can someone explain what a meso high is and if it's more conducive to form where there is a higher snow pack? Also, can this allow more IP vs. ZR if it forms? The Euro puts a high in VA which would be the location I would expect to see such a feature.
brendan123
Member
GFS went from this at 6Z to this at 18Z. 12Z was about in the middle in the two. While the operational models are very different from each other, both the GEFS and EPS have had the highest axis of snow streching from I-95 on the VA-NC border towards SE Virginia. 
This is the ICON-ensemble for Atlanta. Lots of members showing precip during the day Friday. Not sure on ptype but gives temps in the 30s.
Check this out.. if you go to the weather.us site and put in your location it will bring up a forecast menu that will let you select all kinds of different stuff... forecast XL will break down the model output and type of weather PER model that you select
Hard to explain but it's pretty awesome of a site when drilled down that deep into it
This is ICON-ensemble for Florence SC, many members showing precip Friday with temps below freezing.
Yeah they have a lot of nice tools. Seems like a lot is missing too though like icon ensemble display maps, GEFS map capabilities, etc.
2nd wave surface low mean on 18Z GEFS is further south weaker vs 12Z GEFS:
Will this, assuming it doesn’t disappear/weaken more in later runs, come back NW later?
In the meantime, does anyone have the 18Z GEFS member precip panels for this second wave, alone? (Especially hours 120-150 or so)
Will this, assuming it doesn’t disappear/weaken more in later runs, come back NW later?
In the meantime, does anyone have the 18Z GEFS member precip panels for this second wave, alone? (Especially hours 120-150 or so)
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Well….. wow if that is right! Anyone from FFC post in here? Just curious. PM me please
With the wide spread in these models, one thing is for sure… local mets and the staffs at the NWS Field Offices in the Carolinas are gonna earn their pay this week. This is gonna be a deal where they are just gonna have to rely heavily on upstream observations to get a feel of the end result
12z > 18z CMC run to run change 
What does it shows?
CMC is holding the energy back less.
Looks like it brings that Southern energy in a little more (better for a storm)
GFS is gonna fold I can smell it from a mile away, I’m almost convinced the Carolinas/lower MA/other parts of the SE is gonna see a winter storm
iGRXY
Member
I still say this trends to an 85 special for snow and I20 for ice.
Snownut
Member
I agree those southern sliders like that almost Always trends to that
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SnowNiner
Member
Well, this is Merica. Im going with the Ford F150 of weather models. lol. I'm going to go againt the grain here. GFS was the first to see amplification of the yesterday's storm, and the gfs ensembles really don't see much of anything yet. And the phase and timing of the Euro is very hard for me to believe. I'm going to lean toward a cold whiff until the gefs beefs up.
NCSNOW
Member
It always folds. Lose count of the times its by itself against rest of world. Last storms Western KY runs day 3-5 range prime example.
BHS1975
Member
BHS1975
Member
Showmeyourtds
Member
I don't work for FFC, but I may or may not have stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
The FRZ RN depiction on pivotal almost maxed out the color scale with some amounts approaching 2 inches. Does that even seem like a realistic outcome down that way?
Bruh, were you here like 5 days ago? lol