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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

BullCityWx said:
Up here, we’d back slide from RN to ZR to IP to SN which is highly unusual.
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For the frontal passage you would but the key thing here is that surface wave that's going to jog along the front right after. At least the NAM not pre-amping it like the euro was at 84hrs---At least I do not think so.
 
NAM is quite warmer than the GFS at hr84. It's the long range nam but still
namconus_T2m_seus_53.png

gfs_T2m_seus_16.png
 
Even with the stream separation looks, there’s not much to worry about given that favors a weak overrunning setup, as the nam shows, mesoscale factors would be in our favor since WAA is responsible for the precip itself and almost always ends up stronger then modeled in overrunning scenarios, which naturally means precip will be further NW then modeled naturally
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Even with the stream separation looks, there’s not much to worry about given that favors a weak overrunning setup, as the nam shows, mesoscale factors would be in our favor since WAA is responsible for the precip itself and almost always ends up stronger then modeled in overrunning scenarios
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In your opinion, what are we really pulling for trend wise on the NAM and Euro. Euro to flatten a bit to the sw and nam to amp a little more with the NS?
 
The jury is out on what becomes of the front beyond Thursday, with
the only real consensus being that it looks like there is the
potential for another winter weather event this weekend. Best guess
is that each solution has difficulty resolving the interplay between
warm, moist advection off the Gulf and the wedge.

Run-to-run consistency has been poor. GFS has showed a steady signal
of wintry precip, but has wavered on where and when (so... the keys
to the forecast). 06 and 12Z GFS runs develop a surface closed low
that treks along the Gulf coast, but the 12Z run is much more
bullish with FZRA accum. in central Georgia and kicks off
precipitation Saturday morning vs. Saturday afternoon. Euro has
(finally) started to show some consistency with itself, in that
the 00Z and 12Z runs both show the front and residual moisture
axis stalling along the coast and then being reinforced by a
digging upper-level shortwave that cuts across the Tennessee
Valley. 12Z run socks in the I-20 corridor with freezing rain
while far northern Georgia is predominantly snow.

With two incredibly divergent outlooks for the weekend and upper-
patterns that are out of phase, will keep mention of snow and a
rain/snow mix in the grids, didn't try to get cute with any other
mixed phase precip in the forecast. If icier solutions pan out, this
could become a high impact event, but we need more than 2 successive
runs with consensus to take a hard stance. Stay tuned.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
In your opinion, what are we really pulling for trend wise on the NAM and Euro. Euro to flatten a bit to the sw and nam to amp a little more with the NS?
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Something like the CMC honestly I like, even tho it’s QPF amounts is particularly not the best, I like where the energy is on it, maybe slightly more interaction then that but I mean just a little bit, for a mostly snow event for us
 
Couple trends to watch are: 1) the northern stream progression thru the Dakotas, and 2) the upstream wave dropping down into the Great Basin.

The EPS (1st loop) isn't as progressive (not as quick) with the trailing wave tracking in the northern stream thru the Dakotas, and it is dropping that upstream wave farther west thru the Great Basin compared to the GEFS (2nd loop).

The net of it is that the the EPS has more spacing / more room to breathe and allow the wave amplification to occur thru the central U.S. and move the wave from positive tilt to neutral tilt quicker

MUGJ6CM.gif


nRMdYOz.gif
 
from the CPC:
US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

Valid Thursday January 20 2022 - Monday January 24 2022

Hazards:
- Heavy snow across portions of the Southeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, the
Central Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, Thu-Sat, Jan 20-Jan 22.
- Freezing rain across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, and
the Tennessee Valley, Thu-Sat, Jan 20-Jan 22.
 
As of now*** This is how I see the potential for the SE. I think most areas don't get anything from the front moving through except maybe the Carolinas. I think the 2nd wave coming has the most potential......B U T***** we need a good solid press south with the cold push. Has the 2 push through the front good enough.Screen Shot 2022-01-17 at 4.24.57 PM.png
 
From RAH:
Forecast confidence then decreases during the late week-early next
week time frame, as strong and at least briefly blocking ridging
develops and expands nwd along and just offshore the West Coast. The
geometry of downstream troughing over the ern US, dictated by
individual shortwaves and their potential interaction/phasing, is of
lower predictability and will be important for how they may interact
with the strong baroclinic zone related an Arctic air mass over much
of the nrn and and ern US, and warm/unstable conditions from the GOM
to the swrn N. Atlantic and Gulf Stream. That baroclinic zone will
result from the wavy Arctic front forecast to cross the Carolinas
Thu night, then become quasi-stationary from the wrn Atlantic to the
Gulf of Mexico through the remainder of the forecast period, and one
where both isentropic lift and cyclogenesis may become energized by
the aforementioned low predictability shortwave troughs aloft.
There, precipitation --including wintry on the poleward side-- will
be possible, including near or just southeast of cntl NC. The most
likely time of that occurrence in cntl NC appears to be late Thu
night and Fri, but those details and the sensible weather impacts,
with the threat of precipitation spreading nwd into the Arctic air,
remain highly uncertain - but a possibility worth monitoring as
those details are hopefully resolved during the coming days.

&&

--I sure hope the details are resolved in the coming days; the storm will be here in the coming days...
 
malak05 said:
Based off what historical has been known about ICON and its output during last system you have to question its temp profiles it does run a little hotter then most
Click to expand...

The issues here however are...

1. The Euro may be closer to the right depiction on the Western Atlantic Ridge, which has been trending west (although I will say that while I noted a slight shift west in the GFS, it didn't make a difference in the temps...maybe yet?). It'll make it a slop fest for some areas.

2. Like Delta just noted, how far does the cold front on Thursday get? Need a good push from it.
 
Chazwin said:
Geez that’s 1046 high over the Northern Plains!!! I don’t remember the last time we actually had a high that strong moving in with a storm threat, and this only hour 69 this isn’t fantasy land stuff
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Yeah that seems like a strong high, but interestingly that map does not show much of a cold push; almost looks like a bit of an SER
 
FallsLake said:
From RAH:
Forecast confidence then decreases during the late week-early next
week time frame, as strong and at least briefly blocking ridging
develops and expands nwd along and just offshore the West Coast. The
geometry of downstream troughing over the ern US, dictated by
individual shortwaves and their potential interaction/phasing, is of
lower predictability and will be important for how they may interact
with the strong baroclinic zone related an Arctic air mass over much
of the nrn and and ern US, and warm/unstable conditions from the GOM
to the swrn N. Atlantic and Gulf Stream. That baroclinic zone will
result from the wavy Arctic front forecast to cross the Carolinas
Thu night, then become quasi-stationary from the wrn Atlantic to the
Gulf of Mexico through the remainder of the forecast period, and one
where both isentropic lift and cyclogenesis may become energized by
the aforementioned low predictability shortwave troughs aloft.
There, precipitation --including wintry on the poleward side-- will
be possible, including near or just southeast of cntl NC. The most
likely time of that occurrence in cntl NC appears to be late Thu
night and Fri, but those details and the sensible weather impacts,
with the threat of precipitation spreading nwd into the Arctic air,
remain highly uncertain - but a possibility worth monitoring as
those details are hopefully resolved during the coming days.

&&

--I sure hope the details are resolved in the coming days; the storm will be here in the coming days...
Click to expand...
That's largely unchanged language from yesterday
 
Nice from the Icon; while there is ice around.. it's looking similar surface temperature wise that could save areas from the majority of the ice down into SC/GA. It's the Icon though.. it has been known to be too warm in the longer-range.
 
malak05 said:
Based off what historical has been known about ICON and its output during last system you have to question its temp profiles it does run a little hotter then most
Click to expand...
Actually, for the N. Georgia CAD areas, the ICON was a little too cold with its surface temps right up until verification. The NAM was close. The GFS too warm. Again, speaking of N. Georgia only but since that was what I was keyed in on.
 
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