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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Shawn said:
Grit posted a gif earlier of my thinking honestly. It's not uncommon to have multiple waves ride along a stalled out Arctic front giving smaller events, and something I'm honestly rooting for right now. Instead of one big bad wave that MAY over amplify.

Even with that, we could still have the small waves and a bigger one when all is said and done.
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My last big event, a long time ago, that wasn't a spring snow, was one of three in about 10 days. Two set the table and the third shut down the city. I love it when that happens :) Hope you got something decent out of this one.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, lots of members are relatively weak/suppressed coastal overrunning events. It wouldn't take much of a trend to change that.
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Unlike the previous event we are looking at hr 100 and any wrong trend can quickly nail the ⚰️. I hope I’m wrong and this works out for someone even if it’s for @Downeastnc
 
Overrunning is what I’m expecting. Seen too many setups of LP forming on stalled Arctic fronts to think that’s not the most likely case in this situation. Still too early to know for sure but I think I20 gets winter weather but it’s a whole lot of mixed bag stuff with snow on the NW side. Oddly enough this is usually one of the very few setups where it pays to live south of 40
 
I have noticed that a ULL of the coast of Nova Scotia is slower on the GFS run this evening. This has allowed for a much bigger system. Speed up that ULL and we are talking more of an event for the traditional CAD areas. I believe this second system is risky for the entire board. Our blocking is there, but if that ULL which is hundreds of miles away from its placement this morning.

gfs.jpg
 
iGRXY said:
Overrunning is what I’m expecting. Seen too many setups of LP forming on stalled Arctic fronts to think that’s not the most likely case in this situation. Still too early to know for sure but I think I20 gets winter weather but it’s a whole lot of mixed bag stuff with snow on the NW side. Oddly enough this is usually one of the very few setups where it pays to live south of 40
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Yeah, I hate having to depend on a phase honestly. Too many moving parts.
 
iGRXY said:
Overrunning is what I’m expecting. Seen too many setups of LP forming on stalled Arctic fronts to think that’s not the most likely case in this situation. Still too early to know for sure but I think I20 gets winter weather but it’s a whole lot of mixed bag stuff with snow on the NW side. Oddly enough this is usually one of the very few setups where it pays to live south of 40
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Definitely a possibility. The good thing about those overrunning set ups from LP that forms on an Arctic front is that they always have a more expansive precip shield to the north and west than what models will typically show at first. That’s what happened with the February 2010 storm… 24 hours before that started I was forecasted a chance of light snow… no accumulation. By late the next morning I was under a Winter Storm Warning and ended up with 5”
 
iGRXY said:
Overrunning is what I’m expecting. Seen too many setups of LP forming on stalled Arctic fronts to think that’s not the most likely case in this situation. Still too early to know for sure but I think I20 gets winter weather but it’s a whole lot of mixed bag stuff with snow on the NW side. Oddly enough this is usually one of the very few setups where it pays to live south of 40
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Is this regarding Friday or Sunday?
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, I hate having to depend on a phase honestly. Too many moving parts.
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This 100%!!! Phases can be fun when they work, but there is no better way to get a good widespread southern snowstorm than a solid Arctic airmass in place and a 1018-1020mb low pressure riding a stalled out front near the Gulf Coast
 
Chazwin said:
This 100%!!! Phases can be fun when they work, but there is no better way to get a good widespread southern snowstorm than a solid Arctic airmass in place and a 1018-1020mb low pressure riding a stalled out front near the Gulf Coast
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When was the last time we've had an overrunning event? I honestly don't remember a big event from one in many years. I know 1988 was the big one everybody talks about. How is the qpf generated by such a weak wave?
 
SnowNiner said:
When was the last time we've had an overrunning event? I honestly don't remember a big event from one in many years. I know 1988 was the big one everybody talks about. How is the qpf generated by such a weak wave?
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Overrunning snow events, where a true arctic front moves through the area, stalls out and waves move along the boundary bringing us bouts of wintry precipitation have been very infrequent over the last couple of decades.

The energy throws moisture over the cold dome. That upglide creates lift and precipitation. Usually the waves are weak enough not to amp up and screw up the thermals but strong enough to provide enough lift for precipitation.
 
SnowNiner said:
When was the last time we've had an overrunning event? I honestly don't remember a big event from one in many years. I know 1988 was the big one everybody talks about. How is the qpf generated by such a weak wave?
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January 2011 was probably the last major overrunning event, but there have definitely been smaller ones… the Atlanta Snowjam in 2014 for instance. We are really overdue for one. 1988 had such impressive amounts due to a strong mid-level jet that helped provide extra lift. January 2011 could have been similar further east into the Carolinas, but the jet was pulling out and the wave quickly dampened out. They can generate great QPF just simply from the forcing of the warm Gulf moisture running over the top of the Arctic airmass producing great forcing. These don’t have real strong warm noses so the mixed precip is generally in a narrow band just to the north of the path of the low. This is a set up that honestly we are quite overdue for
 
Rain Cold said:
Overrunning snow events, where a true arctic front moves through the area, stalls out and waves move along the boundary bringing us bouts of wintry precipitation have been very infrequent over the last couple of decades.

The energy throws moisture over the cold dome. That upglide creates lift and precipitation. Usually the waves are weak enough not to amp up and screw up the thermals but strong enough to provide enough lift for precipitation.
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Thank you! Are there any hints at that showing on the modeling, any reason to look for that? All I've seen are results of the energy phasing or not, surface systems forming off the coast at different spots. Just wondering what overrunning looks like on the models.
 
Chazwin said:
January 2011 was probably the last major overrunning event, but there have definitely been smaller ones… the Atlanta Snowjam in 2014 for instance. We are really overdue for one. 1988 had such impressive amounts due to a strong mid-level jet that helped provide extra lift. January 2011 could have been similar further east into the Carolinas, but the jet was pulling out and the wave quickly dampened out. They can generate great QPF just simply from the forcing of the warm Gulf moisture running over the top of the Arctic airmass producing great forcing. These don’t have real strong warm noses so the mixed precip is generally in a narrow band just to the north of the path of the low. This is a set up that honestly we are quite overdue for
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I don’t think the 2014 Snowjam could be classified as minor. I had 4” of snow while snowing at 18 degrees at 11am. Hit -3 the next morning.
 
The late Jan 2014 storm is the last overrunning event that I remember which covered a large swath of the SE... Charleston, Savannah, and Wilmington saw an ice storm and even some spots in N Florida saw snow along with ice. I think that storm also caused the Atlanta snowjam. NE North Carolina and SE Virginia saw the highest totals from that storm, and it's actually the last storm I've had approach a foot. If we could get even a setup somewhat like that, it'd be wonderful
 
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