Showmeyourtds
Member
Based on the overnight model runs, yes. But there’s still alot that can happen.So...Atlanta is out of this now correct? Could be banter or not...just need clarity.
Based on the overnight model runs, yes. But there’s still alot that can happen.So...Atlanta is out of this now correct? Could be banter or not...just need clarity.
Still moderate differences between GFS/Euro...normally I would say Euro is probably more right but it's really sucked lately. This is just over 2 days away.
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Still moderate differences between GFS/Euro...normally I would say Euro is probably more right but it's really sucked lately. This is just over 2 days away.
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I think these icing amounts are way overdone along and east of US 17. Surface temps at the time will be 30-34 which is not great for ice accrual. Additionally, with a Miller A setup, we expect to see a much narrower corridor of ice. And going by our most recent history with the storm last week, the ice was way over modeled and more plain rain or sleet fell instead.
Then we owe Birdman an apology bc this was his forecast.Starting to get that Dec 2000 feel. A day that lives in infamy for us Raleigh folks.
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Right its tough but what we need to get a good snow, especially down here at the coast, is a low track well offshore which screws over everyone else on this board. There is much more leeway with the low track for the Greenville area and I think yall have a good shot of getting a pretty good snow out of this.Nice to see a met that actually lives in my CWA.....I have been in Greenville all my life ( 50 yrs ) so I have been down this road many times.....its the old need some phasing to get the QPF up but you play with that 850 warm nose though I am willing to mix pingers during the height of the storm to get 1.5" QPF as mostly snow. This starting to remind me a bit of Dec 2000 where the same general thing happened I mean I am not that scared of 0C at 850 if we had good rates....anyway post more
These charts never tell the whole story. Who cares what it got right over Kazakhstan. It's been an abomination with this system and should be ashamed of itself. King my bleep per brick
Right its tough but what we need to get a good snow, especially down here at the coast, is a low track well offshore which screws over everyone else on this board. There is much more leeway with the low track for the Greenville area and I think yall have a good shot of getting a pretty good snow out of this.
But that is not how science works dude. Anecdotal evidence does not outweigh statistics. Not trying to be a smart ass, I’m just saying.These charts never tell the whole story. Who cares what it got right over Kazakhstan. It's been an abomination with this system and should be ashamed of itself. King my bleep per brick
Yeah I getcha but it's how application works. If it whiffs on every winter storm, then it what difference does it make it it has an accuracy rating of 99.9, especially if another model seems to be doing better in that particular scenario? Currently, the Euro is 0-2 (assuming the current system doesn't amp way up).But that is not how science works dude.
Yeah I getcha but it's how application works. If it whiffs on every winter storm, then it what difference does it make it it has an accuracy rating of 99.9, especially if another model seems to be doing better in that particular scenario? Currently, the Euro is 0-2 (assuming the current system doesn't amp way up).
Edit: And I hear what you're saying. I give it a hard time, but I do believe there are situations when it is a better tool than others. It used to be the gold standard with winter storms. It's not like that anymore, for whatever reason.
Yeah it's looking quite ugly for NE South Carolina and SE North Carolina. The hope is that more sleet gets mixed in for those areas to prevent a catastrophic ice storm from happenning(kind of what happened this past weekend for Central/western Pidmont areas of North Carolina or what happened for the Central and northern Midlands of South Carolina back in 2014). We need to watch the trends over the next 24 hours to see if more sleet gets involed.Yeah the ice potential some of these models are spitting out even all the way to the coast is alarming really....I mean you got to believe these 1.3-1.5" ZR totals are wrong cause I have never seen anything even close to that around here actually pan out but even half of that is gonna raise hell on power lines and limbs, heck entire trees.....
Euro nailed my location for this past weekend's system when the GFS was out in left field. We should wait to see what verifies this weekend before deciding which model got it right.Yeah I getcha but it's how application works. If it whiffs on every winter storm, then it what difference does it make it it has an accuracy rating of 99.9, especially if another model seems to be doing better in that particular scenario? Currently, the Euro is 0-2 (assuming the current system doesn't amp way up).
Edit: And I hear what you're saying. I give it a hard time, but I do believe there are situations when it is a better tool than others. It used to be the gold standard with winter storms. It's not like that anymore, for whatever reason.