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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

griteater said:
The globals have a similar look with doing it mostly with the northern stream wave sharpening a bit and sliding west to east (UKMet is flattest with the wave it looks like and the most suppressed). The NAM/RDPS are incorporating the southern stream wave more
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All models seem to want to pull the northern stream farther southwest so far tonight, if this is a multi cycle trend I could see globals trend towards the NAM/RDPS. Very unpredictable trends, after the 18z euro I was ready to throw in the towel. Seems the NW trend has commenced now though


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snowlover91 said:
GFS is forming the 850 low either over ENC or to the Nw, it’s so diffuse it’s hard to tell but the WAA would be an issue anywhere along and SE of where the 850 low is forming. The GFS is likely too far offshore with its surface reflection and it looks like we are starting the typical nw ticks we see at this range. Just don’t think this is a setup that favors snow in ENC but instead favors ice. View attachment 108175
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The 850 low being diffuse will help as the warming associated with the warm advection that increases will be negated some by the cooling associated with vertical motion....but again, I think how the northern stream wave behaves will be key. If it sharpens more and goes negative tilt, that will strengthen the 850 low / trough and move the transition line north a bit
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If the euro comes in hot I bet that “blend of models” model turns out amazing
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Speaking of

1642982400-hprrjqXxHrk.png
 
So here's the experimental Winter Storm Impact scale from MMFS.. It considers soil temps, ground temps, frozen precip accumulation & melting, regional climatology, and more. It is a 1-10 scale, with 10 being a very high impact system and 0 being no impacts. This is from the last run which initiated at 18z yesterday/Tuesday. It's still highly experimental but figured I'd share.

1642568921405.png
 
deltadog03 said:
well.....trends not that great if you don't live in the Carolinas and north. Not saying this is how we will see the final outcome, but seeing things trending that way where we (in GA) don't see much freezing/frozen Precipitation...
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So dicey of a forecast... as others have stated RGEM is similar to NAM just phases late and CMC has moved NW bringing Snow closer and closer across state. We also have seen precip field be much higher om NW quadrants of these storms. I don't envy FFC as models are generally showing some model consensus and seems to point toward more Carolina impacting but you still have NAM and some occasional teases from other models to its solution and if you miss and NAM right it's gonna stink
 
malak05 said:
So dicey of a forecast... as others have stated RGEM is similar to NAM just phases late and CMC has moved NW bringing Snow closer and closer across state. We also have seen precip field be much higher om NW quadrants of these storms. I don't envy FFC as models are generally showing some model consensus and seems to point toward more Carolina impacting but you still have NAM and some occasional teases from other models to its solution and if you miss and NAM right it's gonna stink
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This system & the model trends leading up to it are still eerily similar to December 8, 2017.
 
Looks to me at this point we have model consensus for a major winter storm for a lot of NC/SC, including a snowstorm for CLT-RDU and NW (and arguably a bit into the coastal plain, too). There‘s still time for this to fall apart but I’m liking the looks of this in the Raleigh-Durham area. I’m not sure any of the 00z model suite is anything but a major snowstorm here. Some more than others, but all moderate/major hits. Not gonna lie, though; the sleet line is uncomfortably close on some of the modeling.
 
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