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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Here's the UKMet

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DopplerWx said:
View attachment 108167Gfs ens members at 78 look good
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Yeah that GEFS Ens Mean map on WBell doesn't look right. It has the 540 thickness line on the bottom side of the sleet, when a general benchmark in this area for snow is 543 (i.e. south of the 540 line). The key is where do we go from here. A sharper northern stream wave that goes more negative tilt would make things warmer....if that doesn't happen, I'd say we are in pretty good shape here at the moment

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NickyBGuarantee said:
What do you mean? Isn’t the Gfs the FV3?
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The GFS uses a FV3 core ever since 2019 as opposed to a spectral dynamic core. The GEFS was upgraded to match it in 2020. I figured that was what you were referring to by “old GFS”. All of the other US models (NAM, HAFS, HRRR, etc) are switching to an FV3 core as well.
 
griteater said:
Yeah that GEFS Ens Mean map on WBell doesn't look right. It has the 540 thickness line on the bottom side of the sleet, when a general benchmark in this area for snow is 543 (i.e. south of the 540 line). The key is where do we go from here. A sharper northern stream wave that goes more negative tilt would make things warmer....if that doesn't happen, I'd say we are in pretty good shape here at the moment

qWuXRIC.png
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As long as the 0z euro doesn't go back to a big ice solution again
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
CMC looks as if it may have done it phasing wise instead of being close and missing like the GFS?

Even if not, there's more interaction between the two waves.
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The globals have a similar look with doing it mostly with the northern stream wave sharpening a bit and sliding west to east (UKMet is flattest with the wave it looks like and the most suppressed). The NAM/RDPS are incorporating the southern stream wave more
 
Downeastnc said:
That low gonna have to be a lot closer then.....the thermals are different because the evolution is different....I have lived here my entire life and we have never had a ice storm with temps in the mid 20's with a low that far off Hatteras....it comes down to who has the 850 low track right, the GFS has it on the coast which makes sense if the surface low is 250 miles east of Hatteras....the NAM has it well inland but also has the surface low right off HAT....so the GFS is gonna have to correct back well west which is entirely possible but its thermals make total sense given its evolution.
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GFS is forming the 850 low either over ENC or to the Nw, it’s so diffuse it’s hard to tell but the WAA would be an issue anywhere along and SE of where the 850 low is forming. The GFS is likely too far offshore with its surface reflection and it looks like we are starting the typical nw ticks we see at this range. Just don’t think this is a setup that favors snow in ENC but instead favors ice. 5C351F52-7D4D-4F15-B3B4-FDE874DE9059.jpeg
 
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