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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Downeastnc said:
Yeah really its the perfect phase for central and eastern NC.....you can see the phasing actually tucks the 850's in much better probably giving everyone even better ratios thus increasing totals...great run for us.

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I personally wouldn’t put much stock in the GFS thermals. Always go with NAM/RGEM blend. There’s going to be a lot more mixing than the GFS shows, GEFS have a lot more ice. Eastern Nc is likely going to be an ice rink with sleet and some zr.
 
iGRXY said:
NE NC and SW Virginia are sitting in the sweet spot regardless of most situations. Unless the entire thing just went to hell in a hand basket. That is definitely one thing I’ll agree on. I’d be worried about the inevitable warm nose up that way potentially but that area definitely is sitting perfect as of right now
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Yeah I'm thinking NE/Central NC and SE VA look good right now, but I am concerned about mixing if this system becomes too amped. The RGEM and NAM crept freezing temperatures a little bit too northwest for me to be completely comfortable on the coast, as any system that gets too amped will cut out the coast from any freezing precipitation if it brings too much warmer maritime air ashore. Central NC won't have that issue because they'll probably stay below freezing at the surface for the whole event, but a more amped system = a stronger warm nose =more sleet/zr. Hoping for a stronger cold push at all levels from the surface up to 850.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
You have the means by chance?
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Still looked good but problem is the mean snowfall map counts everything as frozen and there was more of a pronounced warm nose on the GEFS. Still time to iron those details out but no fan of that showing up this early
 
snowlover91 said:
I personally wouldn’t put much stock in the GFS thermals. Always go with NAM/RGEM blend. There’s going to be a lot more mixing than the GFS shows, GEFS have a lot more ice. Eastern Nc is likely going to be an ice rink with sleet and some zr.
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That low gonna have to be a lot closer then.....the thermals are different because the evolution is different....I have lived here my entire life and we have never had a ice storm with temps in the mid 20's with a low that far off Hatteras....it comes down to who has the 850 low track right, the GFS has it on the coast which makes sense if the surface low is 250 miles east of Hatteras....the NAM has it well inland but also has the surface low right off HAT....so the GFS is gonna have to correct back well west which is entirely possible but its thermals make total sense given its evolution.
 
CMC looks as if it may have done it phasing wise instead of being close and missing like the GFS?

Even if not, there's more interaction between the two waves.
 
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