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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

NCSNOW said:
Interesting!View attachment 108006
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After last weekends near miss for my locale I will take the 3.1” right here and now! I apologize for a dumb question….trying to jump in after not keeping up much last 24 hr but is this continuing to be modeled as strictly an overrunnning scenario or are we looking new phasing at this point?
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Yeah I feel like every system we’ve had this year trended south until about 2 days before. Then it would start trending back north. This could be different but that’s been a theme this winter


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I agree, but this system has a different setup because the degree of phasing is what’s driving this. I guess more ridging could come into play once there’s a low to track. If it’s a weak system that’s a late bloomer, there not a large area that would be affected by a NW shift.
 
If I was in van Denton’s shoes (the hardest area to forecast in this storm being on the edge) I would throw down a map saying light to no accumulations for Yadkinville to Greensboro…(dusting to 2”) and then moderate accumulations east of Greensboro (2-4”), and scattered snow showers foothills/mtns dusting to 1”….that way he has wiggle way to add or remove up to 2” and that largely covers all available guidance ?
 
I definitely think NE NC and SE VA are sitting pretty regardless of the progression. But there’s going to be more moisture on the NW side. The main driver of precip is WAA instead of a true LP until it gets going off the NC coast. WAA is the driver here and it going up against CAD screams more moisture. Over running is notorious for having more moisture than model depiction. We also all know a NW trend is likely at some point but it’s just a matter of how much
 
Chazwin said:
Exactly… as many mets have noted.. there is nothing to prevent the last minute shift NW that we’ve all grown accustomed to
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Obv I’m no met but I remember reading many stating that NW trend was more of an idea than a reality but……as a 20 year predominantly lurker going back to Talk weather days……it seems that only rarely does a storm not shift nw as models converge. Maybe a cpl of I20 specials/sliders but as a layman observer...NW usually happens to some degree.
 
iGRXY said:
I definitely think NE NC and SE VA are sitting pretty regardless of the progression. But there’s going to be more moisture on the NW side. The main driver of precip is WAA instead of a true LP until it gets going off the NC coast. WAA is the driver here and it going up against CAD screams more moisture. Over running is notorious for having more moisture than model depiction. We also all know a NW trend is likely at some point but it’s just a matter of how much
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Yeah man GSP said there might not be much of a lull after the front moves through sounded like there expecting over running more NW up into the MTNS/Foothills
 
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