iGRXY
Member
The progression of the short range models will be telling IMO.
What exactly is the reasoning behind your thinking?There is no “problem” it has trended to other guidance finally for the correct solution. The euro finally matches my thoughts from a couple of days ago. I think it could tick east if any, it’s a a little too high on the western sides.
It’s always been a late bloomer and those rarely if ever spit moisture back from the coast to the mountains. There’s always sharp gradients with these type of southern sliders that eject in a east north east flow. My reasoning was looking at all guidance not just the one or two that was showing heavy snow for Wilkes. There was plenty of guidance that was alarming for those out west but people were trying to say it will pop n/w like the last system. This is nothing similar to our last system in terms of direction/path and esp where the qpf develops. I could just say sky healing from the recent snow and it’s someone’s else’s turn to see snow (Raleigh) but I didn’t!What exactly is the reasoning behind your thinking?
The problem is, while it’s completely possible this heads SE, this setup while being a late bloomer is also overrunning driven by WAA/FGEN at the start, not just a late bloomer. these forcing agents typically result in more mixed precip and precip more NW then forecastedIt’s always been a late bloomer and those rarely if ever spit moisture back from the coast to the mountains. There’s always sharp gradients with these type of southern sliders that eject in a east north east flow. My reasoning was looking at all guidance not just the one or two that was showing heavy snow for Wilkes. There was plenty of guidance that was alarming for those out west but people were trying to say it will pop n/w like the last system. This is nothing similar to our last system in terms of direction/path and esp where the qpf develops. I could just say sky healing from the recent snow and it’s someone’s else’s turn to see snow (Raleigh) but I didn’t!
Also what are the odds that this system starts going back NW around the 48 hour mark? I say likely it’s just a matter of how muchThe problem is, while it’s completely possible this heads SE, this setup while being a late bloomer is also overrunning driven by WAA/FGEN at the start, not just a late bloomer. these forcing agents typically result in more mixed precip and precip more NW then forecasted
Yes and the GFS has come back west with its low and the precip shield on the western side, and is not the only model seeing more precip expanding to the west. I actually agree that the triangle and points east and northeast will likely see the highest snowfall accumulation, but I also think there is a lot that screams for 3”+ snowfall back to the mountains, foothills and SC upstate…. Strong FGEN forcing and strong jet dynamics… it’s a very similar to what happened in the January 2002 storm… western area got a nice overunning event while eastern take advantage of the low gaining strength near the coastIt’s always been a late bloomer and those rarely if ever spit moisture back from the coast to the mountains. There’s always sharp gradients with these type of southern sliders that eject in a east north east flow. My reasoning was looking at all guidance not just the one or two that was showing heavy snow for Wilkes. There was plenty of guidance that was alarming for those out west but people were trying to say it will pop n/w like the last system. This is nothing similar to our last system in terms of direction/path and esp where the qpf develops. I could just say sky healing from the recent snow and it’s someone’s else’s turn to see snow (Raleigh) but I didn’t!
Exactly… as many mets have noted.. there is nothing to prevent the last minute shift NW that we’ve all grown accustomed toAlso what are the odds that this system starts going back NW around the 48 hour mark? I say likely it’s just a matter of how much
Exactly… as many mets have noted.. there is nothing to prevent the last minute shift NW that we’ve all grown accustomed to
The NAM is hinting at it. If the euro was on board like it was yesterday id feel good about chances further west. The euro completely lost it but the gfs is now trying to go back west slowly which is good. If the 00z NAM looses it too than I think it’s time to move on from thinking this will be a major event for N GA and the upstate. Thermals look great we just need some stinking qpf to deal with. That’s never really been the problem for us recently.Also what are the odds that this system starts going back NW around the 48 hour mark? I say likely it’s just a matter of how much