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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

18Z GEFS for the 2nd wave: these members with surface lows in the east central Gulf that then move ENE over C FL and then into the Atlantic well offshore the SE coast would be worrisome if real as that is what the operational had to produce the bulk of the copious amount of coastal GA/SC ZR Saturday into Saturday night:

240DC17C-4320-4675-8C68-D62013FBDDCF.pngE8CD74C5-8D70-46AC-9604-D8FA286E9E9E.png

Anyone have the member wintry precip panels from the hour 90-108 or so period that would cover this 2nd wave? I’d appreciate anyone posting them. I’m not just talking about the pure snow maps.
 
KyloG said:
I can't recall an event where the upper low was so far removed from the surface low and produced that kind of precip. Can you?
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I think the separation part is fine, but where we normally see that is with a southern stream overrunning setup where the wave tracks out of TX/OK into TN, but the sfc low goes Miller A because the airmass is so cold out front with damming (Jan 88). The GFS scenario doing the same concept but with a northern stream wave...yeah, I don't know of any examples of that. The northern stream 500mb vort max tracks from S Indiana to E PA on the GFS. The end result is indeed beautiful in central-east areas. It will be interesting to see the direction we go. The NAM / RDPS / GFS are going about it in different ways.

GFS does have a nice sharpening of 850mb warm advection in central-east Carolinas here for precip generation

BTpx0Vb.gif
 
griteater said:
I think the separation part is fine, but where we normally see that is with a southern stream overrunning setup where the wave tracks out of TX/OK into TN, but the sfc low goes Miller A because the airmass is so cold out front with damming (Jan 88). The GFS scenario doing the same concept but with a northern stream wave...yeah, I don't know of any examples of that. The 500mb vort max tracks from S Indiana to E PA on the GFS. The end result is indeed beautiful in central-east areas. It will be interesting to see the direction we go. The NAM / RDPS / GFS are going about it in different ways.

GFS does have a nice sharpening of 850mb warm advection in central-east Carolinas here for precip generation

BTpx0Vb.gif
Click to expand...
It is good to see that many will get a storm in some form or fashion, especially the Triangle folks. What are your thoughts for which way this is heading?
 
griteater said:
I think the separation part is fine, but where we normally see that is with a southern stream overrunning setup where the wave tracks out of TX/OK into TN, but the sfc low goes Miller A because the airmass is so cold out front with damming (Jan 88). The GFS scenario doing the same concept but with a northern stream wave...yeah, I don't know of any examples of that. The 500mb vort max tracks from S Indiana to E PA on the GFS. The end result is indeed beautiful in central-east areas. It will be interesting to see the direction we go. The NAM / RDPS / GFS are going about it in different ways.

GFS does have a nice sharpening of 850mb warm advection in central-east Carolinas here for precip generation

BTpx0Vb.gif
Click to expand...
What's seemingly nice is each of the models you named get us there but in different ways. Nice to now there's a couple ways to get the job done
 
Snippet from James Spann
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: A complex forecast continues as a wave of low pressure will likely form on the front over the northern Gulf of Mexico Friday. This has potential to spread precipitation northward across Alabama Friday afternoon and Friday night, possibly into Saturday morning. Some light freezing rain is possible Friday morning over parts of South Alabama, and some light snow is possible later in the day and into Friday night across parts of East and Northeast Alabama.

We note the 12Z deterministic runs of the global models have trended drier for the state, shunting most of the moisture to the south and east. The 12Z European ensemble output shows only a 10-30 percent chance of one inch of snow or greater for Northeast Alabama.



But, the overall pattern still favors some risk of wintry precipitation. It is still too early for a specific forecast involving impact or snow/ice amounts, if any. We will be within 60 hours of the event tomorrow and will have much better clarity on the situation. Keep an eye on updates.
 
packfan98 said:
It is good to see that many will get a storm in some form or fashion, especially the Triangle folks. What are your thoughts for which way this is heading?
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Really hard to say, but I agree with you on the various solutions all still producing a winter storm. Biggest takeaway for me is keeping the north solutions into the Mid-Atlantic out of the equation. That's been the biggest plus today, and we have a few more days to keep it that way. Of course, that is not the direction you want to go if you are on the NW side of things
 
griteater said:
I think the separation part is fine, but where we normally see that is with a southern stream overrunning setup where the wave tracks out of TX/OK into TN, but the sfc low goes Miller A because the airmass is so cold out front with damming (Jan 88). The GFS scenario doing the same concept but with a northern stream wave...yeah, I don't know of any examples of that. The northern stream 500mb vort max tracks from S Indiana to E PA on the GFS. The end result is indeed beautiful in central-east areas. It will be interesting to see the direction we go. The NAM / RDPS / GFS are going about it in different ways.

GFS does have a nice sharpening of 850mb warm advection in central-east Carolinas here for precip generation

BTpx0Vb.gif
Click to expand...
That’s one thing I noticed was the FGEN. I would expect QPF to only increase with such a look.
 
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