Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[Cary_Snow95]

View attachment 107955View attachment 107956

Almost the exact same footprint of snow as the ICON

 

[GaWx]

This 24 hour 18Z GFS qpf is rain with very close to 32 in the entire coastal corridor SAV-CHS. This isn’t good.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Why do I feel like the models are really "reeling" a solution in now. Small tweaks likely but there seems to be a consensus on where the zones are setting up.

 

[tempo47]

Still seems so much different between models

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Why do I feel like the models are really "reeling" a solution in now. Small tweaks likely but there seems to be a consensus on where the zones are setting up.

I was thinking the same. Euro, GFS, RGEM, ICON, UKMET all show a heavy band from ne of Charlotte towards se Virginia

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Snowflowxxl]

There’s enough discrepancies in the models that everyone can just chose their favorite and run with that and nobody would bat an eye

 

[CaryWx]

Yep all in same general area. Just need to sort out p-type boundaries, rate intensity and total precips. Won't likely get those until at least late tomorrow

 

[Chazwin]

Perhaps, though I’m always nervous to predict above 10:1 ratios around our region. It hardly ever happens, even when the conditions look promising.

I agree completely… every one talks about the January ‘88 storm and how dry and powdery the snow was, even it was a 12:1 ratio in CLT. To me the only time we ever truly see high ratio snow pan out is when we get strong enough clipper type system that able to redevelop precip east of the mountains… the January ‘03 storm for example that had 40:1 ratios in CLT.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

At least Eastern NC can feel great knowing they're all but certain to see a decent snow this weekend lol.

 

[packfan98]

precip shield doesn’t look as far NW on the 18z GEFS as the 12z run.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sheesh

 

[accu35]

SheeshView attachment 107967View attachment 107968View attachment 107969

That’s really close towards the gulf coast also

 

[BullCityWx]

SheeshView attachment 107967View attachment 107968View attachment 107969

And that’s on a 10:1 ratio. I think we’re gonna do at least 13:1 if not 15:1.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Not a whole lot of moisture but I could see the 1-3” coming one county east of Mecklenburg, NC but half a foot or more Raleigh, NC and points north-east. Maybe some scattered flurries for Mount Airy.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

SheeshView attachment 107967View attachment 107968View attachment 107969

Do you mind posting the 12z total snowfall mean for comparison?

 

[DopplerWx]

GEFS members

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 107975GEFS members

Looks slightly better then last run in NC esp

 

[JoshuaMurrayWX]

When will the energy actually be on shore and fully sampled?

 

[DopplerWx]

Looks slightly better then last run in NC esp