wow
Member
Yep, RGEM checked out my crude sketch it seems. Wouldn't be surprise to continue to trend and dig deeper toward S MS/AL/GA.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
SnowNiner
Member
In my opinion NAM didn't look nearly as good as the RGEM. Plus, we all know about its cold bias as well. We've got some work to do I think in western NC to get a warning criteria event. Hopefully models trends toward the GEFS axis where we can all get in on the fun.
We should all do what @wow asks us to do.
The wild thing about that RGEM run, especially for those of us in the triangle N&W is we seemingly hadn’t even wetbulbed yet. I noticed Roxboro was 19/14 so theoretically, you could wetbulb in the mid teens with heavy snow.
iGRXY
Member
RGEM is only cold biased at the surface and is in line with other model guidance on surface temps. RGEM and NAM are still in the same camp and depict a more robust precip shield on the NW side which is likely to take shape.
Not sure what drives this. Maybe the less amped solutions coming in today.
iGRXY
Member
I think the money wave is the 2nd wave. I wouldn't expect many people to get much off the initial front coming though. The winter storm that we need to be more focused on is the 2nd wave forming and the end of the gulf.
Cary_Snow95
Member
A large portion of this snow on the 18Z NAM clown is from ZR and some from sleet based on how far north the 850 0C line is, including the far south TX stuff. This image shows about as far south as it got on the 18Z NAM:
iGRXY
Member
Wave looks faster and the N/S looks slightly further south
griteater
Member
Kind of yes, but the RDPS has the ticket for many (not all) with phasing the 2 waves late. GFS is keeping the 2 waves separate, with the northern stream wave tracking too far north into the Ohio Valley, and the southern stream wave coming out late and weaker. RDPS is much better for many
Cary_Snow95
Member
Only slight changes so far
griteater
Member
I don't see anything improved on the GFS run unless the held back SW wave goes gangbusters at the end
Cary_Snow95
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Actually took a small step in the wrong direction for a phase
packfan98
Moderator
Looks better at the surface at 72.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Thanks @GaWx. ATL city and south metro are right on that line as well. Lotta folks (including me) gonna be white-knuckling it given the qpf.
The better trends continueActually took a small step in the wrong direction for a phase
We dont necessarily need a phase
GFS looks better !