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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

griteater said:
The GOAT of NC winter storm photos

GFS not backing down
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That storm really was memorable .. people didn’t take it seriously and that snow stuck really quickly and also lasted much longer than initially thought .. now we’re just colder and don’t turn to sleet
 
Stormsfury said:
You'd think it was the 80s again with such crazy shifts and expansions like that this close to an event.

But when s/w move across sparsely networked regions (*cough* Mexico mountains *cough *), this kinda gives validity to why so many winter events were "sneaky" suckers back in the day.

Temperatures running 1 to 2 degrees colder in the WWA around Charleston, Berkeley Counties at this time.
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Most models have maintained the warmer trends of yesterday and I can’t find even one model now (ignoring the cold biased WRF) with more than a very tiny bit of ZR here in SAV. But as you said, the cold air in wedges is often underdone by most models. So, that remains the wild card. Will continue watching temperature trends to my NE. Plus your well inland area and 100 mile further NE area will probably end up 1-3 colder or so during precip than the coldest here while precip is falling. I see that temperature falls in NE SC/Coastal NC have either slowed or stopped for the time being with 32 in ILM, 33 in Florence, 34 in MYR, and 36 in CHS. Will they resume falling this afternoon, the crucial time imo?
 
FFC may issue WWAs for E GA.
000
FXUS62 KFFC 211513
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1013 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022


...Update for wintry impacts updates...

.UPDATE...

As we move into the morning, we are seeing patchy areas of
freezing drizzle affect portions of north, northwest, and west
central Georgia, including portions of the Atlanta metro, causing
slick spots on roadways, especially on brides and overpasses.
Please use caution when driving in these areas. Temperatures are
expected to improve through the morning, but with cold air
continuing to push in from the north and thick low-level cloud
cover, several areas of North Georgia are expected to remain near
or below freezing for the entirety of the day.

In east central and southeast portions of the forecast area,
some morning model runs have indicated and increasing chance for
mixed wintry precip with the potential to cause minor impacts
tonight into Saturday morning. Some of these areas may be upgraded
to a Winter Weather Advisory this afternoon depending on model
trends throughout the rest of the morning.

PLease see the Special Weather Statements for more details.

Thiem

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
 
lexxnchloe said:
Greg Postal said on TWC its possible to see a bit more snow that what they are forecasting which was around 3-4 inches around Raleigh
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Considering even the drier 12z GFS has CAE at 5.1 inches with ratios, I agree that this thing is surely going to do better up there; It just has to...
 
GaWx said:
Most models have maintained the warmer trends of yesterday and I can’t find even one model now (ignoring the cold biased WRF) with more than a very tiny bit of ZR here in SAV. But as you said, the cold air in wedges is often underdone by most models. So, that remains the wild card. Will continue watching temperature trends to my NE. Plus your well inland area and 100 mile further NE area will probably end up 1-3 colder or so during precip than the coldest here while precip is falling. I see that temperature falls in NE SC/Coastal NC have either slowed or stopped for the time being with 32 in ILM, 33 in Florence, 34 in MYR, and 36 in CHS. Will they resume falling this afternoon, the crucial time imo?
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Temperatures running slightly colder than most guidance. When precip resumes again later, I could imagine we'd continue to see further falls in daytime temps. We saw the first level off in Charleston from 9am to 10am (first non fall ob's since 1pm yesterday. However, here at the Creek, with no precip falling now, temps have dropped down to 34 here. (Which is 2 to as much as 4 degrees colder than various model guidance from Yesterday).
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
People not taking this storm seriously at all. Hurricanes game is tonight that means a flood of traffic around 6 all through Raleigh .. light to moderate snow falling and if everyone makes it to the game then by the time they leave you have thousands of cars leaving in 23 degree moderate snow on top of 2 inches already fallen .. good grief could spell trouble if this game isn’t canceledView attachment 109117
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This is.... just bad. Moderate snow will be moving in by 7-8pm with temps in the upper 20s. A pretty careless tweet imo.
 
15z HRRR coming in

a945wY7.gif
 
Sun out here in Surry county, tells me dry air will be hard to overcome in a lot of areas in the NW part of the storm
 
CAE just updated..

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1128 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Recent model trends this morning have been consistently showing
a westward expansion of precipitation as it redevelops this
afternoon. Additionally, there is increasing concern about the
possibility of frontogenetic banding setting up from southwest
to northeast across the CWA. With a cold airmass in place,
model soundings have been suggesting more frozen precipitation
occurring further to the south and east than in the previous
forecast. With snowfall accumulations on the upswing, the
decision was made along with neighboring WFOs to upgrade the
Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for
Chesterfield, Southern Lancaster, Kershaw and Lee Counties. For
these areas, around 2 inches of snowfall accumulation is
expected mainly from this evening and through the overnight
period. The Advisory was also expanded southward through much
of the CSRA counties, minus McCormick and Lincoln where lesser
impacts are expected.

Expect temperatures to fall this afternoon, with high
temperatures either having already occurred earlier today, or
are at their peak late this morning. There remains a chance for
some some light precipitation this morning and into the early
afternoon hours, mainly of the liquid variety. However, the best
chance for precipitation will be later in the day and evening,
when the ptype is more likely going to be a wintry mix and
capable of generating some hazardous conditions for the evening
commute period.

Ice accumulations expected between 0.1"-0.25" across the
eastern and southern Midlands, less than 0.1" elsewhere.
Snow/sleet accumulations will be highest over areas in the
Winter Storm Warning, with around 2" accumulation and isolated
higher amounts possible. Amounts then decrease to the south and
west, with around 1.5" through the Columbia metro and up to 1"
into the Augusta area through early Saturday morning.
Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 20s, with warmest
values in the CSRA and coldest temperatures near the SC/NC
border.

Additional details with the afternoon package.
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Being right North of the mixing line is usually where there is stronger precipitation. I'm slightly away from CAE proper... but being right on that line can score big for people usually.. not just here but anywhere seeing that
 
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if RAH added Franklin, Wake, Johnston, and maybe even Harnett to the WSW in their afternoon package. I could also see them adding Davidson, Forsyth and Guilford to the WWA. We shall see.
 
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1135 AM Friday...

Update: After evaluation of new guidance, have expanded the winter
storm warning westward, with the warning now running roughly along
and southeast of a Rockingham-Raleigh-Roanoke Rapids line. New high
res guidance is suggestive of a band of heavier snow potential
across the Sandhills into the central/NE Coastal Plain and far SE
Piedmont, with the focus still on 7p-3a time frame. -GIH
 
packfan98 said:
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Yeah… I was just about to post that GSP has updated their forecast grids… they now have 1-2” over the current WWA area and even now around 1” for CLT itself. They mentioned at 10:45 they were waiting for all 12z guidance to come in before making a call on expanding advisory westward, but they were perplexed by the light snow that is breaking out in the Lee of the mountains in areas that only had 15% POP. It’s interesting that for CLT metro 2” in 8 hours is. WSW criteria so I wonder if they might pull the trigger on a warning for Cabarrus, Union, and Chester counties… it looks as if most models has 2”+ for the majority of those counties now
 
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