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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Chazwin said:
That’s beyond crazy… 6 hours apart, but it literally just moved the western extent from the coast line to CLT… can you imagine if we ever saw shifts like this with a hurricane?
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it happens. the hypothetical hurricane analogy here is the 10 mile shift west that makes the compact category 4 coming in at an oblique angle landfall in tampa instead of naples
 
For what it's worth. East TN is experiencing a flizzard event right now. This limited moisture is having no problem putting down some light snow.

Of course some upslope helping. But still a good sign for you guys to the east!

If Raleigh-Durham area starts seeing snow around rush hour it may get pretty rough for commuters.

692DBD6C-CB76-4080-AC84-DAE01922EA43.jpeg
 
Fountainguy97 said:
For what it's worth. East TN is experiencing a flizzard event right now. This limited moisture is having no problem putting down some light snow.

Of course some upslope helping. But still a good sign for you guys to the east!

If Raleigh-Durham area starts seeing snow around rush hour it may get pretty rough for commuters.
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absolutely. if the nam is to be believed and things begin at 4ish you've got every ingredient needed for snowjam 2022
 
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Friday...

Just minor changes this morning as we await a full suite of new 12z-
initialized guidance. Observational datasets confirm the near term
forecast trends. The latest surface analysis shows the frigid high
nosing strongly down through central NC with plenty of dry air
advection, including single-digit dewpoints just to our N. Skies are
just cloudy, with radar showing spotty elevated returns across the S
half, although most of this is likely not reaching the ground given
the somewhat dry subcloud layer noted on 12z soundings. Will
maintain low chance pops across the SE well into the afternoon,
before trending pops up with a NW expansion as we approach the
evening. Any changes to the advisory or warning will wait a few more
hours when further high res guidance can be fully considered. Expect
temps to hold firm or rise just a degree or two today, yielding
daytime highs of 27-34. Current brisk winds from the NNE and NE with
occasional gusts to around 20-25 mph will persist through the day as
the dense air pours in with a strong ageostrophic component, which
will keep wind chills in the upper teens to mid 20s for much of the
day. -GIH
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ILMRoss said:
absolutely. if the nam is to be believed and things begin at 4ish you've got every ingredient needed for snowjam 2022
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The NAM would be an absolute disaster.

It's 23.5 here with a ground temp around 29-30. After 15 minutes of literally the lowest rates you can get this is how an untreated road looks.


03BD405D-1E74-4B9A-B646-9BBF56567B68.jpeg
 
Here's season-to-date snowfall...interesting that this setup will primarily be impacting areas that haven't seen anything all winter yet, almost a perfect overlay to fill in most of the gaps in the Carolinas. Well, enjoy! :D

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nohrsc_seasnow.us_ma.png
 
Here on Da Coast, Hit 32F around 7:30~8am or so..

It's now At 31, screaming NNE Winds.
Surfaces are starting to ice up..

Current Obs..

31F
Humidity 99%
Dew Point 31.6º
Rainfall 0.11 inch
Pressure 26.65 inch
Winds NNE 10Mph gusting to 20+
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Looks to be some very very light returns over Atlanta right now. Doesn't appear that anything is reaching the ground from what I can tell.
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Yeah, the airport is reporting freezing drizzle/fog again right now. I got some light returns over me, but I’m not seeing anything so far.
 

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thunderwolf said:
UK has been steady bringing snow all the way to the coast. I would be interested to see a forecast sounding from that model to see why its missing the warm nose or if its just counting all frozen precip as snow. It would be awesome if it verified, but it's really the only model that shows significant snow here at the coast.
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It is because these UK snowfall maps are counting all precipitation falling with the surface 32 or colder as snow. Your 850s don’t get down to 0C until the very end of the precip.
 
NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-GA1263DD2353B8.SpecialWeatherStatement.1263DD243580GA.FFCSPSFFC.976a6a7e42637d214043ebe552e30eeffrom [email protected]
Sent:09:22 EST on 01-21-2022
Effective:10:04 EST on 01-21-2022
Expires:15:00 EST on 01-21-2022
Event:Special Weather Statement
Alert:...LIGHT RAIN MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA WHICH COULD CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND OTHER MINOR
IMPACTS...
Tonight, temperatures following a cold front are expected to fall to
near or below freezing for the majority of north and central
Georgia. This temperature drop will also coincide with Gulf moisture
overriding the cold air with light precipitation expected for
eastern and southern portion of the forecast area. Areas in East
Central Georgia are the most likely place where the combination of
light precipitation and freezing near-surface temperatures could
overlap going into the evening.
With wintry precipitation being extremely sensitive to small
temperature changes, there is still some uncertainty on any
locations and specific accumulations, which would mostly be confined
to grassy, metal-type and elevated surfaces. However, a period of
mixed light precipitation, possibly changing to all snow is
likely somewhere along and east of a line from Helen, to
Lawrenceville, to Covington, to Milledgeville. Any accumulations
are expected to range from a trace up to one-half inch could be
possible, with very isolated locations up to 1 inch not out of the
question. For areas south and east of a line from Sandersville,
to Eatonton, to Jeffersonville, to Eastman could receive a trace
to a few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain late tonight into
the early morning.
Overall confidence is low and residents and emergency officials
should remain alert and be prepared for possible snow and/or ice
accumulations, especially over parts of middle and east central
Georgia. Even small amounts of ice can cause significant impacts
such as slick roads and power outages due to icing on trees and
powerlines.
 
Figured I talk about this interesting quirk here...

So, my internet might end up struggling some today. It's going to be one of the coldest daytime winter days that we've seen in quite a while and lately, when I've woken up on cold mornings, the internet has been dodgy for us. My dad's theory is that the tower gets frozen when it's cold. If it's the right theory, the internet might struggle today.

Woke up to a temperature of 38, it might be 36 now. Gonna be an interesting day, hopefully.

May not be able to help myself if things work out well, I might choose to step outside tonight and see if I see something.
 
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