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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Here's the current advisories and warnings in place this morning.
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Very similar to yesterday to be honest. More advisories added in SC stretching to GA border over to Aiken. NC is almost unchanged from yesterday, but we'll see if that changes later today.

Oh, and almost forgot. WWAs snuck into FL panhandle and (what I believe is) Mobile Bay. (The purple in Lousiana is freeze watches/warnings)
 
packfan98 said:
12z RAP looked much better than the previous 2 runs. 12z model madness starting off well!
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We’re almost at a point where it’s better to watch the radar than watch any models runs at this point
 
iGRXY said:
Yeah looking at these models is pointless. We're literally under 12 hours and they're making complete 180 trends at H5 and the surface between runs still. Really no point in looking at them at this point.
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It probably gives the NWS some additional confidence their forecast is correct. Plus, it may make them want to expand some advisories and warnings
 
metwannabe said:
Very sharp cutoff, w/nw, going to be somebody that can smell the snow and get nothing.... very little wiggle room
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Yeah, hopefully as with a lot of similar setups, the models underdo the NW side of the precip and we have more wiggle room than the models suggest. But someone’s going to be on the wrong side of that line, regardless.
 
superjames1992 said:
Allan Huffman’s final forecast:

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I know this may be weenie but I just don’t see how after 8+ hours of snowing in the mid 20s .. especially after the small returns giving us that snow last night we’re impressive .. that we end up with 2 inches … this is screaming over preformed but we will see
 
Another thing to keep in mind is how many times do you get forecasted a quarter inch of rain and instead you get a half inch? Well, that’s the difference between 2-3” of snow and 5-6” of snow with a snowstorm, where a normally small and irrelevant difference suddenly is a big deal. Of course, it also often goes the other way where a half inch of rain forecasted ends up being a quarter inch…This is what makes forecasting snow hard. These differences don’t really matter with rainfall.
 
3k don't let me down now haha. Really nice increase on that run, it's almost nowcast time, I feel really good about where we are. Again look at WV, look at downstream obs/radar, etc, things are on schedule and a touch better than modeled.

1642849200-ja9BB1MrOT4.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I know this may be weenie but I just don’t see how after 8+ hours of snowing in the mid 20s .. especially after the small returns giving us that snow last night we’re impressive .. that we end up with 2 inches … this is screaming over preformed but we will see
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Going to be honest the one thing I've been kind of meh on with this storm is rates, half inch an hour for 8 hours for 4 inches feels really sane and reasonable. I think the biggest area for a bust is definitely when the precip starts... if flakes start in the triangle at 2 or something by some miracle then time to readjust
 
ILMRoss said:
Going to be honest the one thing I've been kind of meh on with this storm is rates, half inch an hour for 8 hours for 4 inches feels really sane and reasonable. I think the biggest area for a bust is definitely when the precip starts... if flakes start in the triangle at 2 or something by some miracle then time to readjust
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I just feel like some more mesoscale banding could show up and bring enhancements to some of those rates … i dont know i Just feel like we can produce more than 2-4 in areas that see those banding features
 
metwannabe said:
3k don't let me down now haha. Really nice increase on that run, it's almost nowcast time, I feel really good about where we are. Again look at WV, look at downstream obs/radar, etc, things are on schedule and a touch better than modeled.

1642849200-ja9BB1MrOT4.png
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The indicator for a good winter storm is to make sure the grass clippings are all covered by the end of it! That’s my benchmark
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I just feel like some more mesoscale banding could show up and bring enhancements to some of those rates … i dont know i Just feel like we can produce more than 2-4 in areas that see those banding features
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I really think the ratios are not being considered enough west of 95. If that zone gets .4 QPF, that should equate to 5-6" of snow.

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