Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[Tarheel1]

NAM at the end

Classic SE winter storm track! GSP to CLT get hammered

 

[lj0109]

Ouch:

 

[DopplerWx]

WOOF! Just getting started too.

 

[Broken024]

View attachment 107904

Have to think this was a out to go full beast mode here

 

[DopplerWx]

Look at these temps as the storm gets going, goodness

 

[iGRXY]

That run was about to drop the hammer as the Vorts started consolidating.

 

[wow]

NAM - oh so close to wrapping up and bombing out past 72 hrs

 

[BHS1975]

The Carolina Crusher started out as an ice storm in Ga.

 

[accu35]

 

[Jrips2710]

Atlanta getting hammered at 84. Bullseye is right where were we want to be on the 84hr NAM ?

 

[griteater]

NAM is not far off from what we want to see to get snow to more individuals....keep the wave positive tilt for a long time, then get the wave in the southwest to kick out and ideally phase a bit with the northern stream at the last minute

 

[Ollie Williams]

I don’t like how warm 850s are.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

The NAM is so different from the globals its insane

 

[Zander98al]

I20 Alabama Special.....all snow, and a lot of it!

Have a feeling, the precip shield may grow, hopefully it isn't just a i20 special, but the Alabama special lol

 

[Cary_Snow95]

NAM is not far off from what we want to see to get snow to more individuals....keep the wave positive tilt for a long time, then get the wave in the southwest to kick out and ideally phase a bit with the northern stream at the last minute

That solution probably warms 850s for eastern folks quite a bit though, no?

 

[cyclogent]

3hr rates are impressive. 0.25 to 0.35" precip over ATL, or about 3" of snow from HR81 to HR84

 

[superjames1992]

I think we have to remember this is the LR NAM. Good or bad, it’ll change and it’s far out of its wheelhouse.

 

[wow]

So close to this...

 

[iGRXY]

That expansion of precip is what is closer to reality based on the dynamics of how the precip is being generated. Regardless of whether the globals or the NAM is right that shows what I would expect the precip shield to look closer to. Now the temp situation and what those precip types are is a different story that we still need to iron out.

 

[griteater]

That solution probably warms 850s for eastern folks quite a bit though, no?

It's a tight setup. A bit of phasing would crash the termperatures aloft more to the east. If the SW wave doesn't kick out some and there's little phasing, you're not going to get much precip back into the area supportive of snow