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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

From NWS Raleigh

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1135 AM Friday...

Update: After evaluation of new guidance, have expanded the winter storm warning westward, with the warning now running roughly along and southeast of a Rockingham-Raleigh-Roanoke Rapids line. New high res guidance is suggestive of a band of heavier snow potential across the Sandhills into the central/NE Coastal Plain and far SE Piedmont, with the focus still on 7p-3a time frame. -GIH
 
12Z UK: this is 10:1 for all precip falling when 2M is 32 or colder and not just for snow. The stuff on and near the SE coast is about all ZR. So, CHS’s 1” of snow is actually 0.10” of ZR for example:
7FD38E95-2671-4CD9-8BD4-3E93F356DE06.png
 
We see this happen with almost every system where the front edge of precip arrives earlier than expected, but typically it doesn't make too much of a difference in final totals. However, with temps so cold I think we could see meaningful accumulations from this before the main event gets started!
 
CLTwx said:
Yup...this is a honk from -- and the piedmontView attachment 109168
Click to expand...
With as temps air and soil, as cold as they are I have to imagine that he's still downplaying accumulations a good bit. With that in-house model, it's pretty much snowing from 4-10. That's a solid 6 hours of what appears to be moderate and maybe some heavy snow. With ratios looking great, I'd imagine at least a good couple of inches for Charlotte. At least he is mentioning the dangers of the snow on the roads, so people aren't caught off guard.
 
GSP
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM EST: Upper divergence is ramping up, as indicated
by cooling cloud temps streaming into the area thanks to right
entrance region jet dynamics. This forcing is causing more snow
to fall and seed the low-level moisture across the NC mountains
(lots of reports of accumulating snow). So far, all the model
guidance seems to be struggling with this (consensus PoPs are less
than 15%). So it`s really challenging to assess how much this will
continue as we head thru the day. For now, think QPF will be very
light, and will handle with a Special Wx Statement (SPS). But an
advisory may be needed, if banding sets up (or the snow just stays
more persistent than expected). Outside the mountains, there`s
a deeper dry layer preventing the seeder-feeder mechanism at the
moment. However, both the NAM and GFS fcst soundings show overall
moistening profiles this aftn, and frontogenesis will ramp up toward
sunset, as a strong shortwave approaches from the west. The banding
will be parallel to the frontal zone (SW-NE orientation), but
the exact placement is still up for debate among the guidance. It
could very well set up over the southern and central NC mountains,
extending to the NW NC Piedmont. Then, things will shift SE, and the
best rates are still expected to be from Greenwood, SC to Cabarrus,
NC and points E. This is where our current Winter Wx Advisory is,
and that looks good. With the overall trends in the guidance since
the 00z runs trending a little higher QPF this evening further
west into the Piedmont, we may need to expand the advisory. But
there`s still not enough confidence, and will assess all the 12z
guidance and the latest radar/satellite trends before making a
decision. Will handle non-mountain snow/black ice concerns with
an SPS as well for now.
 
NE SC/Coastal NC temperatures are still pretty much steady. Crucial time imo will be late this afternoon to see if they resume dropping.
 
My sense is that GSP is waiting to decide on WWA or straight to Winter Storm Warning. If we got 1-3 that would be just on the outside IIRC. Eastern portions of Meck may be closer to WSW.

Loganelliott99 said:
Wouldn’t this be WWA level for clt?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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