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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

If you want to compare 18z Nam to Sat 18z GFS Pie Dream.

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500hv.conus.png
 
I'm guessing with the energy dropping more to the Southwest. That means like a pendulum it'll make it move Northeastward sooner? Through far eastern panhandle and southern Georgia?
 
FallsLake said:
RAH still watching. Might be looking at 0z runs tomorrow night before models align better.

Friday and Friday night: The upper trough over the central and
eastern US will reload as yet another strong, amplifying shortwave
trough dives SE, reaching the SE US late Friday/early Saturday.
Models keep any coastal low pressure system development offshore,
just how far offshore remains high uncertainty and remains a source
of large model spread in just how much liquid equivalent precip will
occur inland. Given that the shortwave trough in question is still
in a data sparse region over the Gulf of Alaska, expect to see a
narrowing/clustering of solutions once the system moves onto the NW
Pacific coast within the next 24 to 36 hours. Based on current model
projections, precip should begin as all rain with critical onset
timing occurring after daybreak Friday. If inland
precipitation/moisture is adequate, precipitation type could change-
over to snow Friday evening/night before ending from deep column
cooling as the northern stream trough moves into the area.
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This is a really good discussion. I know this probably gets overused a lot but the whole data sampling is definitely important with a set up like this. When it comes to phasing, being off by just a few hours can have huge implications to what actually verifies. I forgot who, some one earlier today brought up the comparison with what models are showing right now to March 1980, March 1993, and January 2000… while I was too young to remember March 1980, I do remember that with both 3/1993 and 1/2000 being off on phasing by a matter of hours very much effected what was forecasted and what verified.
 
Chazwin said:
This is a really good discussion. I know this probably gets overused a lot but the whole data sampling is definitely important with a set up like this. When it comes to phasing, being off by just a few hours can have huge implications to what actually verifies. I forgot who, some one earlier today brought up the comparison with what models are showing right now to March 1980, March 1993, and January 2000… while I was too young to remember March 1980, I do remember that with both 3/1993 and 1/2000 being off on phasing by a matter of hours very much effected what was forecasted and what verified.
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All the players should be on the field for data sampling by Wednesday ?
 
Chazwin said:
This is a really good discussion. I know this probably gets overused a lot but the whole data sampling is definitely important with a set up like this. When it comes to phasing, being off by just a few hours can have huge implications to what actually verifies. I forgot who, some one earlier today brought up the comparison with what models are showing right now to March 1980, March 1993, and January 2000… while I was too young to remember March 1980, I do remember that with both 3/1993 and 1/2000 being off on phasing by a matter of hours very much effected what was forecasted and what verified.
Click to expand...

Hasn’t model integrity improved since those storms?


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ATLwxfan said:
Hasn’t model integrity improved since those storms?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Model integrity has improved, but we’re still talking about phasing which is still something very difficult for even today’s models to nail down to the detail. The computers need as much data as possible to come out with the most accurate solution… I’m honestly suprised that NOAA isn’t sending out some air craft to the Pacific on this one with number of people a potential storm could effect
 
Long winded AFD of ever Conservative KLIM AFD Disco..

Still watching an area of low pressure that is likely to
develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday into
Thursday night. This storm system will develop ahead of a mid-
level trough and jump over to the baroclinic energy provided by
the Gulf Stream where it is likely to deepen as it tracks along
the US East Coast through Saturday. While this could be a
significant winter storm for portions of the northeastern US,
locally, impacts look to be minor or non-existent.

Moisture is likely to spread northward during the day on Friday
(worth noting some time difference among various global models
with the consensus being Friday afternoon) which will allow
temperatures to increase above freezing. Without some form of
cold air advection, in the form of high pressure to our north or
northeast, we are unlikely to have a supply of cold air
available during this event.

The main cold air for this system is likely to be sourced from
high pressure over Quebec, far too removed to impact our area.
Various models agree on the location of high pressure and cold
air advecting sources, so the main concern for our area is
rainfall intensity and the potential for changeover on the
backside of this deepening low.

Uncertainty only increases for Friday night into Saturday when
the potential for wintry weather increases. NW flow as the
system moves northward will rapidly bring below-freezing
temperatures throughout the column. How much moisture remains
will be the main question. The latest forecast maintains a
chance of snow on Friday night into early Saturday morning. Too
early and too much uncertainty for specific amounts; generally
expecting little to no impacts as dry air advection limits our
precip intensity.

Frigid and blustery on Saturday with highs struggling to hit
40. Clear and cold through the remainder of the weekend with
temperatures well below normal. Moderating and returning to
near- normal temperatures by Monday.
 
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