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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

BHS1975 said:
I was in NW Raleigh and it started out as sleet for about an hour and then temps dropped to the upper 20s with like 4" per hr snowfall rates. The changeover was very fast.


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Yeah that's exactly what happened. Started with a little freezing rain/sleet mix where I was and sleeted for a while after that. Then during the evening it changed to snow and the temp dropped. It wasn't marginal. It was cold. The next day was very cold with heavy snow for a good while and then it was cold after.

Also, you don't have to have a banana high for a Miller A, but a lot of our good Miller As have a high dropping into the midwest and scooting south and east. That's a typical Miller A SE snowstorm look. You do want some cold air feeding into the storm.

In this case, we already have some marginal cold. It's not like we're starting from scratch, coming out of the 70s with no cold air around. But the problem is, you need a rapidly strengthening storm to collapse the column while the storm is close enough to drop heavy precipitation. The surface is going to be mild, but it will cool and be fine when/if the changeover to snow happens. That's why I've been harping on this developing at a lower latitude than Cape Hatteras. We don't want a 1013 low off of Hatteras. We want a 913 low off of Myrtle and going into the 800s, heading N from there, while remaining just offshore. :)
 
Looks good to me
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
 
KyloG said:
Euro has trended better...would hope it's ens are much better.

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"Just keep trending, just keep trending...." Western ridge keeps shifting west, we need to keep that up so that backside energy will slide west and allow enough time for the wave to dig and amplify in just the right spot. If we can, it's boom boom time from RDU east at least.
 
KyloG said:
Euro has trended better...would hope it's ens are much better.

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Looks better. Need to take that purple string at the bottom to the shop and work on that a little and then you might have something pretty good.
 
Chazwin said:
It is much improved overall, but it’s still doesn’t have great resolution and is still known to not pick up well on dynamic cooling at the surface. I think the key here is that if there is snow falling at good rates, these maps showing temperatures 35-37 will most likely end up being more in the 31-33 range
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Yeah, in my experience heavy snow will invariably eventually drop the surface temps down to near freezing (32-33), at the least. Heavy snow and 35F for hours upon hours doesn’t really happen from what I’ve seen (not saying it’s impossible).
 
Pilotwx said:
For those of us back in the foothills, NW Piedmont , SW VA and Mountains we need it to trend way back to the SW and develop over the Gulf and more like the Central to Western Gulf , if we are gong to see a big snow. East looks better right now
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tenuous sentiment here. The gradients for this storm will likely have a lot of north/south gradients. If you folks do well with this, there's going to be a lot of unhappy folks east of 77 (and vice versa)
 
ILMRoss said:
tenuous sentiment here. The gradients for this storm will likely have a lot of north/south gradients. If you folks do well with this, there's going to be a lot of unhappy folks east of 77 (and vice versa)
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Exactly and for Raleigh to even do well there will likely be some heavy rain in the far eastern coastal plain I'm guessing. Certainly the sound. obx and coastal areas.
 
Stephenb888 said:
How much more work do we need to do for us in upstate Sc to get in on this? A few small tweaks or is it big changes?
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Not much. As we get closer to verification time, expect things to come in more amplified. That's been the idea recently and I don't see a reason for it not to. The Euro being sheared out is okay at this point.. here's the thing.. the Euro recently wiffle waffles from way too amped to way too sheared. It probably won't be long before we see the Euro do some sort of way over-amped situation only to pull back too far and then for the GFS to sniff out the general idea.
 
As many have pointed out, you want to see energy consolidated at the base as opposed to a N-S axis. Early read is this looks more like a MA/NE storm with maybe the Carolinas getting clipped as it begins to bloom around our latitude. Bombing needs to begin and occur well to our south for a big dog, right now that does not look to be the case.
 
ILMRoss said:
tenuous sentiment here. The gradients for this storm will likely have a lot of north/south gradients. If you folks do well with this, there's going to be a lot of unhappy folks east of 77 (and vice versa)
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Well a few on here could care less if Foothills or Western region ever gets snow again. But, for our area this is what we need. East has a lot more margin for error
 
We’ve seen the last two storms give us a strong early signal then trend east only to then trend back west and closer to the original solution. The models love to dance it seems. Will it shift back enough??


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ATLwxfan said:
We’ve seen the last two storms give us a strong early signal then trend east only to then trend back west and closer to the original solution. The models love to dance it seems. Will it shift back enough??


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I think it will. The trends lately say yes. But who knows.
 
Models will always go back and forth here. *as of now* I see this as a swing and a miss for most of us in the SE. I think the Carolinas have the best shot if anything. The pattern is too progressive right now with energy flying all over the place. I know things can change for sure, but we need the pattern to slow down a bit to get that energy to act right. lol. Well....if we did that we would figure a way to screw that up and have it cut inland over TN...LOL
 
Shawn said:
Cut those totals in half, though. Kuchera sure does. ;)
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WeatherNC said:
As many have pointed out, you want to see energy consolidated at the base as opposed to a N-S axis. Early read is this looks more like a MA/NE storm with maybe the Carolinas getting clipped as it begins to bloom around our latitude. Bombing needs to begin and occur well to our south for a big dog, right now that does not look to be the case.
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As usual, good, rational analysis from WeatherNC to keep some inflated expectations in check.
 
RAH still watching. Might be looking at 0z runs tomorrow night before models align better.

Friday and Friday night: The upper trough over the central and
eastern US will reload as yet another strong, amplifying shortwave
trough dives SE, reaching the SE US late Friday/early Saturday.
Models keep any coastal low pressure system development offshore,
just how far offshore remains high uncertainty and remains a source
of large model spread in just how much liquid equivalent precip will
occur inland. Given that the shortwave trough in question is still
in a data sparse region over the Gulf of Alaska, expect to see a
narrowing/clustering of solutions once the system moves onto the NW
Pacific coast within the next 24 to 36 hours. Based on current model
projections, precip should begin as all rain with critical onset
timing occurring after daybreak Friday. If inland
precipitation/moisture is adequate, precipitation type could change-
over to snow Friday evening/night before ending from deep column
cooling as the northern stream trough moves into the area.
 
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