Z
Zander98al
Guest
More overunning in Alabama and Georgia?
Someone in the East is going to get hammered
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter $alt
- Start date
Yeah man, I was kind of vague with that, but I was thinking more big picture when I wrote it. What I meant was that we have our primary features which will come together, promoting storm genesis. I think the models are seeing those variables pretty well, which is why we have nearly unanimous agreement on a storm forming. However, I don't believe the models have the strength, movement, or timing of those all worked out yet. It won't take much of a miss to make a pretty big difference with respect to where and when the system initiates and how rapidly it develops.
And then you have secondary features which have influence upon the primary features...other energy in the streams that act as kickers or that can influence the western ridge, for example, that can impact the development and track of our system. Some of those are probably not being well-sampled.
Anyway, that's a lot of words lol. Ill-defined was probably not the ideal choice of terminology, but that's what I was thinking about when I wrote it.
And Fro already answered the TPV question. I'm not really sure why we have to use the T these days. I guess it's to differentiate from the Stratospheric PV, but we used to just use PV when analyzing storm systems. Context should eliminate the need for the qualifier, but I guess it looks more trendy if we use TPV, SPV, IPV, EPV, SDGPV, or whatever.
I haven't caught up on everything, but I believe what we'd like to see is a piece of energy not being picked up yet to come in behind this thing and try and tilt it. We really need help at h500, I think... I read last nights WPC and they were basicically saying they'd like to see this thing come into Western Canada etc first before commiting too much to one thing or another.
ajr
Member
? - Wave looks further west so far and into BC
iGRXY
Member
Honestly they’re treating it like we should treat every potential. Just see if the players stay on the field with the models until the energy is over land to truly be sampled. There’s just no possible way to even get an idea of how each little variable is going to tweak until you can truly sample it.
What do you mean? I just feel like it’s not everyday you see a system like this in a flow very fast with nothing to stop it, like the 50/50 low or blocking, develop a low inland and then cut it all the way up the coast. This to me is screaming big storm, light event or out to sea. Those are the options here imo .. I suppose if the trough was able to swing through earlier and flick the tilt sooner that would create an inland scenario but the tilt starts so positive it has such a long way to go to get to that negative state which is why I think it’s on the coast or off the coast
You're all good man I probably shouldn't of been so nitpicky hahaha. You've got the big picture spot on. A lot of the long-term folks on here tbh can have a more clear eyed view of the big picture than some mets I know.
This is a big improvement. Yet another tick west with the mean trough.
Hypsometric
Member
?
Light event scenario still looking the most likely but I love the trend here especially at this range. Don’t want that abrupt NW shift right now 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The cold in this system is quite the chill too per it so everything is just going to freeze well. I do like the ticks west and the better tilt, it's a better trend that will help sling moisture inward as it tilts negative.
Yessir regardless of any winter precip this trough moving in is quite deep and will probably bring a return to the overnight teens in most places even without snowfall .. what a mighty cold pattern we’ve been in might hit our lowest temps in 5 years twice this seasonThe cold in this system is quite the chill too per it so everything is just going to freeze well. I do like the ticks west and the better tilt, it's a better trend that will help sling moisture inward as it tilts negative.
Well now.....
Hypsometric
Member
If we keep the ICON look at H5 and continue the trend of that trailing northern energy coming in further west, this is headed towards something major for inland southeastern states. Lots of ifs, lots of minute details to hold in place, but the possibility is there and at this range, it's more than we can usually hope for.
You got that right and not a bad map at this range either, it isn't gone yet and that's a plus lol
Ron Burgundy
Member
I’d say FFC is unimpressed with this potential event, but I think you have to acknowledge something exists before you can be unimpressed by it. ?
LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
No major changes to the long term forecast with mostly zonal flow
through the 1st half of the extended, with driving cold front
setting up fire danger conditions in the 2nd half. Guidance progging
strong cold-front to push through the area along a positively
tilted trough on Friday, but kept PoPs at low-end Slight Chance
across the N GA mtns given limited moisture and PWATS less than
0.50", not expecting much if any accumulation at this time.
Looking to Saturday, fire weather concerns remain as area enters
NWly mid-lvl flow in tandem with NWly 10-15mph surface winds
behind the front, leaving current Tds forecast in the teens with
MinRH values approaching critical thresholds across much of
central and eastern GA. This will be something to monitor as Tds
could be lower than forecast as drier mixes down under higher
winds with model soundings still showing a sharp dry layer around
900-850mb. As far as temps go, expecting high and low temps to
near 5-10 degrees below climatological avg for this time of year
through Friday, before dropping lower to 10-15 degrees below avg
on Saturday under mostly clear skies.
Morgan
LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
No major changes to the long term forecast with mostly zonal flow
through the 1st half of the extended, with driving cold front
setting up fire danger conditions in the 2nd half. Guidance progging
strong cold-front to push through the area along a positively
tilted trough on Friday, but kept PoPs at low-end Slight Chance
across the N GA mtns given limited moisture and PWATS less than
0.50", not expecting much if any accumulation at this time.
Looking to Saturday, fire weather concerns remain as area enters
NWly mid-lvl flow in tandem with NWly 10-15mph surface winds
behind the front, leaving current Tds forecast in the teens with
MinRH values approaching critical thresholds across much of
central and eastern GA. This will be something to monitor as Tds
could be lower than forecast as drier mixes down under higher
winds with model soundings still showing a sharp dry layer around
900-850mb. As far as temps go, expecting high and low temps to
near 5-10 degrees below climatological avg for this time of year
through Friday, before dropping lower to 10-15 degrees below avg
on Saturday under mostly clear skies.
Morgan
Yeah, really need the backside of that trough there to sharpen up. Fingers crossed.
