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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

MHX office bullish a bit

The forecast then gets a bit more complex towards the end of the
week. High pressure centered in the northeastern CONUS on
Thursday slowly slides eastward into the Canadian Maritimes in
the following days. At the same time a cold front will approach
from the west on Friday while a coastal low develops off the
Southeast Coast and strengthens as it tracks northeastwards
Friday and Saturday along the Eastern Seaboard. Although there
remain differences in the exact track and timing of this
feature, confidence is increasing that this coastal low will
bring impacts to Eastern North Carolina on Friday and Saturday.
The main forecast challenge here will be p-type especially
Friday evening into Saturday morning as thermal profiles are
forecast to become cold enough to support a rain/snow mix or
even plain snow across much of the Inner Banks and inner
Coastal Plain. This low then tracks off to the north and east by
Saturday afternoon with high pressure forecast to build into
the Carolinas behind this departing low Sunday and Monday
resulting in fair weather across the forecast area. Temperatures
are forecast to remain below normal through the end of the
forecast period.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Or it can be an AL and N GA storm as well. Miller A style storms tend to be the best chance at big snows out this way as well and it shows on some ensemble members. Could also be a N GA through most of NC storm as well. Too many solutions with a lot of time to fluctuate 3 very key pieces of energy. The trends I say are in a fair position at the moment.
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Definitely. I think the goal posts are set. I hope that the storm develops fast enough for some folks in the SE to benefit. New England snow lovers have to be licking their chops though.
 
LukeBarrette said:
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Been thinking about how everyone wants the TPV to get going and I’m personally not a fan of routing for something like that for that exact reason .. I still think while there’s nothing backing the flow I don’t see much being able to really make this a “cutter” per say unless everything get going much earlier but I don’t see that in the cards yet
 
KyloG said:
I don't see how the EPS is going to go from this cluster to running way inland. Once the EPS gets inside day 4 it's going to be in the ballpark of where the SLP will track.

View attachment 110113
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That is the sticking point for me. While the trends are good and I would love to see a west track, on the other hand we are getting close to where the EPS isn’t off much.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Been thinking about how everyone wants the TPV to get going and I’m personally not a fan of routing for something like that for that exact reason .. I still think while there’s nothing backing the flow I don’t see much being able to really make this a “cutter” per say unless everything get going much earlier but I don’t see that in the cards yet
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The longwave trough configuration argues for a track east of the Apps (hopefully offshore please please please). We just need the PV to go on ahead and drop into the base of the trough and get it over with. ?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Been thinking about how everyone wants the TPV to get going and I’m personally not a fan of routing for something like that for that exact reason .. I still think while there’s nothing backing the flow I don’t see much being able to really make this a “cutter” per say unless everything get going much earlier but I don’t see that in the cards yet
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Sometimes I think people (not all just some) pull for buzzwords and acronyms with not much reasoning why they are or the end result of getting what they want
 
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Arcc said:
That is the sticking point for me. While the trends are good and I would love to see a west track, on the other hand we are getting close to where the EPS isn’t off much.
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It won't take much to move it by a couple hundred miles or so. If the low was already formed and tracking along, then maybe a different story. I think people tend to forget a little bit how we're dealing with several pieces of ill-defined energy, the timing, orientation, strength, and combination of which can have significant impacts on where the storm forms, how strong it gets, and where it subsequently moves. There's no way the models have a precise lock on all of that. Being off by just a little can make the difference between an inland bomb or a swing and a miss even for New England.
 
Like to see a minum 990 to sub 990 by the time its off NC Coast.
For MBY , I need a track no futher east than over Frying Pan shoals to Cape Hatteras shoreline. Futher East from there, more strength , lower surface pressue will be needed to chug moisture back this way.
Triad can live with a track up hwy 17 to maybe as far back as I 95. Anything west of there is usually BL problems until we are on the backside..
 
Rain Cold said:
It won't take much to move it by a couple hundred miles or so. If the low was already formed and tracking along, then maybe a different story. I think people tend to forget a little bit how we're dealing with several pieces of ill-defined energy, the timing, orientation, strength, and combination of which can have significant impacts on where the storm forms, how strong it gets, and where it subsequently moves. There's no way the models have a precise lock on all of that. Being off by just a little can make the difference between an inland bomb or a swing and a miss even for New England.
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Going to push back a little on the bold, I think this energy is a little more defined and consistent than our usual 5-day-away storm. Agree with everything else

By the way i'm going to ask an amateur question, what is a TPV lol, I'm sure i know what it is just under different terminology
 
ILMRoss said:
Going to push back a little on the bold, I think this energy is a little more defined and consistent than our usual 5-day-away storm. Agree with everything else

By the way i'm going to ask an amateur question, what is a TPV lol, I'm sure i know what it is just under different terminology
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Tropospheric polar vortex
 
lexxnchloe said:
That actually looks pretty good to me. 80 miles SE and its a big one for NC.
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Take the 6z EPS ens cluster bullseye circle, move it 80 miles SE like you said and thats money, puts it right over Frying Pan Shoals. Thats the target for me and still leaves plenty of wiggle room futher west. The GEfs is almost there, probably 25 miles.

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c730010edebbce57f61603c1cd30f0a4.jpg


Someone in the East is going to get hammered

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BirdManDoomW said:
I’m probably the only one watching Texas/Oklahoma and seeing how they verify today too with their winter storm warnings. Radar looks better than a lot of guidance yesterday. Could bode well for eastern Carolina’s. View attachment 108746
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Loganelliott99 said:
c730010edebbce57f61603c1cd30f0a4.jpg


Someone in the East is going to get hammered

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Hopefully this means the southeast and not the northeast as they get enough snow compared to the south lol
 
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