Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

[LukeBarrette]

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Sfc temps continue to look like an issue

 

[Shawn]

Rapidly temps crashing from 40 -> 34 for some areas. Not bad.

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[DopplerWx]

 

[DopplerWx]

Nice trends continue.

 

[NCSNOW]

nice track. Need it stronger sooner for temps and max benefit; Not a bad run.

 

[KyloG]

Is it get our snow shovels ready or the umbrellas....

 

[Shawn]

Cut those totals in half, though. Kuchera sure does.

 

[SNOWMANN]

Is it get our snow shovels ready or the umbrellas....

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If it bombs out it will come in NW I think upstate SC and WNC are in a good spot.

 

[KyloG]

If it bombs out it will come in NW I think upstate SC and WNC are in a good spot.

It really looks like a large area of the east is going to get a big, potentially very big, snow storm.

 

[Metwannabe]

Cut those totals in half, though. Kuchera sure does.

Yep temp profiles different than last storm

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[ILMRoss]

A change I've noticed is that the vorticity is a little more uniform from north to south- our god mode runs had the vorticity more focused towards the southern lobe. We want a little more detachment there- this uniform trough is fair and fine if you want a ton of folks geared for a few backside inches. But I think we need to revert back to the ways of a stronger southern portion (where height maps will have more of a "teardrop" shape) to realize the insane potential that this set up has.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

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Riddle me this.. why are we getting so much moisture feedback all the way here in NC with the main low pressure system already out of here into New England.. is this the doing of that secondary low off of NC .. maybe a hybrid overrunning set up ?

 

[Stormdoc]

GFS does that weird double barrel low thing. I would expect it to go towards a consolidated surface low, that would only strengthen the storm further. Yikes.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yep temp profiles different than last storm

Also 2-4 inches of this type of snow could cause more problems than 2-4 inches of the powdery stuff (in regards to trees and power)

 

[Arcc]

Seeing that weak low forming in the gulf really makes me think of January 2018. Too bad the temp profiles aren’t good or else I could feel good about a 2-3” snow across AL/GA.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Got to keep in mind that GFS typically pushes the low farther east then other models when the trough swings.

 

[SnowNiner]

Is it get our snow shovels ready or the umbrellas....

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Umbrellas.

 

[BullCityWx]

Some of y’all who were out here at the time can correct me if I’m wrong:

Wasn’t most of 1/25/2000 occurring during marginal temps?