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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
Went from suppression on the GEFS to apps rubbers lol
Z
Zander98al
Guest
06z GFS snowfall totals. 
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Come on 19. Be right.
NCSNOW
Member
Landmark References from past East Coast Bombogenesis. Always interesting to see these come along. Heres a few of the big daddys that affected the SE. Theres others. Lot has to do when the exact time the trough gets neutral/negative tilted. Thought the 1980 surface maps look closest to what we been seeing on models for this potential storm. Difference is 1980 flow slowed enough, Dont think we have that luxury here.
93 Superstorm: NW Central GOM-Tallahasse-Macon-Raleigh-Off to Yankee land
Carolina Crusher 2000: Shortwave trough dropped into the GOM off MS/Louisianna Coast-Amped/became negative tilt on eastern Florida gulf coast- NE off Ga coast between Sav & jax - pivoted off Wilmington - Out to Sea
1980 ENC Beast: Had to dig this one up
Figure 2. Surface Analysis at 12Z March 1, 1980 showing strong Arctic high pressure covering much of the eastern U.S.
Figure 3. 500 mb Heights at 00Z March 1, 1980 showing cold polar vortex over eastern Canada.
Figure 4. 500 mb Heights/Vorticity at 12Z March 2, 1980 showing shortwave digging across the southern states.
As the shortwave continued to strengthen, the overall system slowed and became neutrally tilted by the afternoon of March 2 with the 500 mb low cutting off over Georgia (Figure 5). By late afternoon on March 2, the system intensifies and becomes negatively tilted with cyclogenesis off the South Carolina coast (Figure 6).
Figure 5. 500 mb Heights/Vorticity at 21Z March 2, 1980 showing upper low becoming negatively tilted and cutting off.
Figure 6. Surface low pressure deepening o
93 Superstorm: NW Central GOM-Tallahasse-Macon-Raleigh-Off to Yankee land
Carolina Crusher 2000: Shortwave trough dropped into the GOM off MS/Louisianna Coast-Amped/became negative tilt on eastern Florida gulf coast- NE off Ga coast between Sav & jax - pivoted off Wilmington - Out to Sea
1980 ENC Beast: Had to dig this one up
Figure 2. Surface Analysis at 12Z March 1, 1980 showing strong Arctic high pressure covering much of the eastern U.S.
Figure 3. 500 mb Heights at 00Z March 1, 1980 showing cold polar vortex over eastern Canada.
Figure 4. 500 mb Heights/Vorticity at 12Z March 2, 1980 showing shortwave digging across the southern states.
As the shortwave continued to strengthen, the overall system slowed and became neutrally tilted by the afternoon of March 2 with the 500 mb low cutting off over Georgia (Figure 5). By late afternoon on March 2, the system intensifies and becomes negatively tilted with cyclogenesis off the South Carolina coast (Figure 6).
Figure 5. 500 mb Heights/Vorticity at 21Z March 2, 1980 showing upper low becoming negatively tilted and cutting off.
Figure 6. Surface low pressure deepening o
NCSNOW
Member
06z EURO h5 at 90
00z EURO h5 at 96
00z EURO h5 at 96
ajr
Member
A little stronger and further SW, right? Tilt seems about the same.06z EURO h5 at 90
00z EURO h5 at 96
iGRXY
Member
TPV lifting to the NE as well on the Euro at 90
lexxnchloe
Member
Is that good or bad?
NEGaweather
Member
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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iGRXY
Member
Personally I think we are shifting too far west too soon. Without any blocking and this thing digging further and further west there’s really not a lot from this thing going further inland IMO. We are on a thin thin line here between suppressed and OTS before turning into a bomb for the NE, potentially overrunning setup, and a potential Apps runner.
Step in the right direction for sure, as expected. I still favor areas west of here. Assuming I'm wrong about that though, we're still going to need for this things to get going quickly off the coast of SC, as we'll be dealing with marginal temps.
Yeah, we need a perfectly time ull going negative and perfectly tracked SLP to hit backside snow. We don't have a HP to our north so we need a lot more luck than usual. I am rooting for a big bomb even if it means we rain...be fun to watch unfold.
packfan98
Moderator
My gut tells me that because of the trough orientation the system won't go negative far enough west to be an apps runner. I may be wrong. Even if it does come further west, as long as the system has enough time to develop and blossom, someone in the SE could get a wallop with dynamic cooling snow. It might be the Tennessee, Northern Mississippi, Northern Alabama region, or it could be the same area along the coast that received snow. Time will tell. At least we are in the game. It might be the last big opportunity this season.
KILM AFD.
A new shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the
Rockies Thursday and move across Texas on Friday. Surface low
pressure will likely develop out ahead of this trough along the
Southeast coast Friday. The 00z Canadian is considerably faster
than the 00z ECWMF or GFS with the eastward extent of both the
surface and upper level features. A slower solution is
preferred which spreads clouds across the area Thursday night
with rain chances developing Friday...especially near the
coast.
Surface low pressure should deepen as it moves northeastward
Friday night and away from the Carolinas. The upper level trough
will move overhead later Friday night, and there appears to be
some potential for a period of wintry weather as low level cold
air deepens while lift and considerable moisture and some lift
continues aloft above the 700 mb level. A mix of rain and snow
remains in the forecast. Forecast PoPs are currently 20-40
percent, highest at the NC beaches, but may need to be adjusted
higher if later model runs show any consistency with this
system.
A new shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the
Rockies Thursday and move across Texas on Friday. Surface low
pressure will likely develop out ahead of this trough along the
Southeast coast Friday. The 00z Canadian is considerably faster
than the 00z ECWMF or GFS with the eastward extent of both the
surface and upper level features. A slower solution is
preferred which spreads clouds across the area Thursday night
with rain chances developing Friday...especially near the
coast.
Surface low pressure should deepen as it moves northeastward
Friday night and away from the Carolinas. The upper level trough
will move overhead later Friday night, and there appears to be
some potential for a period of wintry weather as low level cold
air deepens while lift and considerable moisture and some lift
continues aloft above the 700 mb level. A mix of rain and snow
remains in the forecast. Forecast PoPs are currently 20-40
percent, highest at the NC beaches, but may need to be adjusted
higher if later model runs show any consistency with this
system.
I don't see how the EPS is going to go from this cluster to running way inland. Once the EPS gets inside day 4 it's going to be in the ballpark of where the SLP will track.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Or it can be an AL and N GA storm as well. Miller A style storms tend to be the best chance at big snows out this way as well and it shows on some ensemble members. Could also be a N GA through most of NC storm as well. Too many solutions with a lot of time to fluctuate 3 very key pieces of energy. The trends I say are in a fair position at the moment.
Downeastnc
Member
MHX office bullish a bit
The forecast then gets a bit more complex towards the end of the
week. High pressure centered in the northeastern CONUS on
Thursday slowly slides eastward into the Canadian Maritimes in
the following days. At the same time a cold front will approach
from the west on Friday while a coastal low develops off the
Southeast Coast and strengthens as it tracks northeastwards
Friday and Saturday along the Eastern Seaboard. Although there
remain differences in the exact track and timing of this
feature, confidence is increasing that this coastal low will
bring impacts to Eastern North Carolina on Friday and Saturday.
The main forecast challenge here will be p-type especially
Friday evening into Saturday morning as thermal profiles are
forecast to become cold enough to support a rain/snow mix or
even plain snow across much of the Inner Banks and inner
Coastal Plain. This low then tracks off to the north and east by
Saturday afternoon with high pressure forecast to build into
the Carolinas behind this departing low Sunday and Monday
resulting in fair weather across the forecast area. Temperatures
are forecast to remain below normal through the end of the
forecast period.
The forecast then gets a bit more complex towards the end of the
week. High pressure centered in the northeastern CONUS on
Thursday slowly slides eastward into the Canadian Maritimes in
the following days. At the same time a cold front will approach
from the west on Friday while a coastal low develops off the
Southeast Coast and strengthens as it tracks northeastwards
Friday and Saturday along the Eastern Seaboard. Although there
remain differences in the exact track and timing of this
feature, confidence is increasing that this coastal low will
bring impacts to Eastern North Carolina on Friday and Saturday.
The main forecast challenge here will be p-type especially
Friday evening into Saturday morning as thermal profiles are
forecast to become cold enough to support a rain/snow mix or
even plain snow across much of the Inner Banks and inner
Coastal Plain. This low then tracks off to the north and east by
Saturday afternoon with high pressure forecast to build into
the Carolinas behind this departing low Sunday and Monday
resulting in fair weather across the forecast area. Temperatures
are forecast to remain below normal through the end of the
forecast period.
packfan98
Moderator
Definitely. I think the goal posts are set. I hope that the storm develops fast enough for some folks in the SE to benefit. New England snow lovers have to be licking their chops though.
Been thinking about how everyone wants the TPV to get going and I’m personally not a fan of routing for something like that for that exact reason .. I still think while there’s nothing backing the flow I don’t see much being able to really make this a “cutter” per say unless everything get going much earlier but I don’t see that in the cards yet
lexxnchloe
Member
If the cold front moves thru first then the low will track off the coast and most of NC will get a big snow.
That is the sticking point for me. While the trends are good and I would love to see a west track, on the other hand we are getting close to where the EPS isn’t off much.
The longwave trough configuration argues for a track east of the Apps (hopefully offshore please please please). We just need the PV to go on ahead and drop into the base of the trough and get it over with. ?
Sometimes I think people (not all just some) pull for buzzwords and acronyms with not much reasoning why they are or the end result of getting what they want
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It won't take much to move it by a couple hundred miles or so. If the low was already formed and tracking along, then maybe a different story. I think people tend to forget a little bit how we're dealing with several pieces of ill-defined energy, the timing, orientation, strength, and combination of which can have significant impacts on where the storm forms, how strong it gets, and where it subsequently moves. There's no way the models have a precise lock on all of that. Being off by just a little can make the difference between an inland bomb or a swing and a miss even for New England.
NCSNOW
Member
Like to see a minum 990 to sub 990 by the time its off NC Coast.
For MBY , I need a track no futher east than over Frying Pan shoals to Cape Hatteras shoreline. Futher East from there, more strength , lower surface pressue will be needed to chug moisture back this way.
Triad can live with a track up hwy 17 to maybe as far back as I 95. Anything west of there is usually BL problems until we are on the backside..
For MBY , I need a track no futher east than over Frying Pan shoals to Cape Hatteras shoreline. Futher East from there, more strength , lower surface pressue will be needed to chug moisture back this way.
Triad can live with a track up hwy 17 to maybe as far back as I 95. Anything west of there is usually BL problems until we are on the backside..
NCSNOW
Member
Notice the lesser press from tpv Sat. Good illustration of how close we are.
well, good trend for those of us west of the Apps....and that jet is just textbook.
lexxnchloe
Member
That actually looks pretty good to me. 80 miles SE and its a big one for NC.
Going to push back a little on the bold, I think this energy is a little more defined and consistent than our usual 5-day-away storm. Agree with everything else
By the way i'm going to ask an amateur question, what is a TPV lol, I'm sure i know what it is just under different terminology
Tropospheric polar vortex
NCSNOW
Member
Take the 6z EPS ens cluster bullseye circle, move it 80 miles SE like you said and thats money, puts it right over Frying Pan Shoals. Thats the target for me and still leaves plenty of wiggle room futher west. The GEfs is almost there, probably 25 miles.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’m guessing you mean SW?
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Someone in the East is going to get hammered
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Tokenfreak
Member
Hopefully this means the southeast and not the northeast as they get enough snow compared to the south lol
Someone in the East is going to get hammered
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