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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

I think the dupage page is missing some of the new GEFS members versus other sources since the upgrade btw.
 
KyloG thats 1003 prob very close to my amateur ideal location, looks a smidge east for my taste. Need, prefer sub 1000mb, deepening off GA,SC coast . Thanks for B and W maps
 
UKMet run

V9a3r1w.gif
 
BullCityWx said:
Some of y’all who were out here at the time can correct me if I’m wrong:

Wasn’t most of 1/25/2000 occurring during marginal temps?
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I can only speak for my area, but my temps in southern Cabarrus County were in the 32-35 degree range for most of the storm… as the low really started bombing out during the overnight hours was when temperatures crashed to 26-28, but at that point the snow starting to lighten up
 
BullCityWx said:
Some of y’all who were out here at the time can correct me if I’m wrong:

Wasn’t most of 1/25/2000 occurring during marginal temps?
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We had rain and ZR in FAY before the 850s crashed.
Also, IIRC, there was a weak system that slipped through beforehand that helped prime the pump to overcome mid-level warmth.
 
griteater said:
UKMet run

V9a3r1w.gif
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Looks ok. I can't remember how the previous version looked. Cyclogenesis starts off the coast of NC, it looks like. It really needs to get cranking about the latitude of the GA coast or somewhere in there if anybody is in the SE is going to see a big snowstorm.
 
Arcc said:
Seeing that weak low forming in the gulf really makes me think of January 2018. Too bad the temp profiles aren’t good or else I could feel good about a 2-3” snow across AL/GA.
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Arcc said:
Seeing that weak low forming in the gulf really makes me think of January 2018. Too bad the temp profiles aren’t good or else I could feel good about a 2-3” snow across AL/GA.
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I wouldn' t put too much stock in the temperature profiles yet, I'm more excited for the western trend.....much more potential now than last 4hr. the location and intensity of the storm is gonna make a huge difference.
 
ajr said:
Stalled by what, can you tell? Thought lack of 50/50 or -NAO means there isn't anything preventing the storm from quickly going up the coast/OTS
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Sometimes the process of the trough going neutral to negative and the phasing process slows a system down as it goes under cyclogenesis. I imagine that's what's happening here. Who has the link to Tomer Berg's GEFS 500mb plots? I can't find it. @iGRXY, was it you who posted that a day or two ago?
 
packfan98 said:
Sometimes the process of the trough going neutral to negative and the phasing process slows a system down as it goes under cyclogenesis. I imagine that's what's happening here. Who has the link to Tomer Berg's GEFS 500mb plots? I can't find it. @iGRXY, was it you who posted that a day or two ago?
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GEFS Panels

arctic.som.ou.edu
 
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