• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

If you want to compare 18z Nam to Sat 18z GFS Pie Dream.

500hv.conus.png

500hv.conus.png
 
I'm guessing with the energy dropping more to the Southwest. That means like a pendulum it'll make it move Northeastward sooner? Through far eastern panhandle and southern Georgia?
 
FallsLake said:
RAH still watching. Might be looking at 0z runs tomorrow night before models align better.

Friday and Friday night: The upper trough over the central and
eastern US will reload as yet another strong, amplifying shortwave
trough dives SE, reaching the SE US late Friday/early Saturday.
Models keep any coastal low pressure system development offshore,
just how far offshore remains high uncertainty and remains a source
of large model spread in just how much liquid equivalent precip will
occur inland. Given that the shortwave trough in question is still
in a data sparse region over the Gulf of Alaska, expect to see a
narrowing/clustering of solutions once the system moves onto the NW
Pacific coast within the next 24 to 36 hours. Based on current model
projections, precip should begin as all rain with critical onset
timing occurring after daybreak Friday. If inland
precipitation/moisture is adequate, precipitation type could change-
over to snow Friday evening/night before ending from deep column
cooling as the northern stream trough moves into the area.
Click to expand...
This is a really good discussion. I know this probably gets overused a lot but the whole data sampling is definitely important with a set up like this. When it comes to phasing, being off by just a few hours can have huge implications to what actually verifies. I forgot who, some one earlier today brought up the comparison with what models are showing right now to March 1980, March 1993, and January 2000… while I was too young to remember March 1980, I do remember that with both 3/1993 and 1/2000 being off on phasing by a matter of hours very much effected what was forecasted and what verified.
 
Chazwin said:
This is a really good discussion. I know this probably gets overused a lot but the whole data sampling is definitely important with a set up like this. When it comes to phasing, being off by just a few hours can have huge implications to what actually verifies. I forgot who, some one earlier today brought up the comparison with what models are showing right now to March 1980, March 1993, and January 2000… while I was too young to remember March 1980, I do remember that with both 3/1993 and 1/2000 being off on phasing by a matter of hours very much effected what was forecasted and what verified.
Click to expand...
All the players should be on the field for data sampling by Wednesday ?
 
Chazwin said:
This is a really good discussion. I know this probably gets overused a lot but the whole data sampling is definitely important with a set up like this. When it comes to phasing, being off by just a few hours can have huge implications to what actually verifies. I forgot who, some one earlier today brought up the comparison with what models are showing right now to March 1980, March 1993, and January 2000… while I was too young to remember March 1980, I do remember that with both 3/1993 and 1/2000 being off on phasing by a matter of hours very much effected what was forecasted and what verified.
Click to expand...

Hasn’t model integrity improved since those storms?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ATLwxfan said:
Hasn’t model integrity improved since those storms?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Model integrity has improved, but we’re still talking about phasing which is still something very difficult for even today’s models to nail down to the detail. The computers need as much data as possible to come out with the most accurate solution… I’m honestly suprised that NOAA isn’t sending out some air craft to the Pacific on this one with number of people a potential storm could effect
 
Long winded AFD of ever Conservative KLIM AFD Disco..

Still watching an area of low pressure that is likely to
develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday into
Thursday night. This storm system will develop ahead of a mid-
level trough and jump over to the baroclinic energy provided by
the Gulf Stream where it is likely to deepen as it tracks along
the US East Coast through Saturday. While this could be a
significant winter storm for portions of the northeastern US,
locally, impacts look to be minor or non-existent.

Moisture is likely to spread northward during the day on Friday
(worth noting some time difference among various global models
with the consensus being Friday afternoon) which will allow
temperatures to increase above freezing. Without some form of
cold air advection, in the form of high pressure to our north or
northeast, we are unlikely to have a supply of cold air
available during this event.

The main cold air for this system is likely to be sourced from
high pressure over Quebec, far too removed to impact our area.
Various models agree on the location of high pressure and cold
air advecting sources, so the main concern for our area is
rainfall intensity and the potential for changeover on the
backside of this deepening low.

Uncertainty only increases for Friday night into Saturday when
the potential for wintry weather increases. NW flow as the
system moves northward will rapidly bring below-freezing
temperatures throughout the column. How much moisture remains
will be the main question. The latest forecast maintains a
chance of snow on Friday night into early Saturday morning. Too
early and too much uncertainty for specific amounts; generally
expecting little to no impacts as dry air advection limits our
precip intensity.

Frigid and blustery on Saturday with highs struggling to hit
40. Clear and cold through the remainder of the weekend with
temperatures well below normal. Moderating and returning to
near- normal temperatures by Monday.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Wasn’t the euro showing something similar last night though? Super flat?
Click to expand...
Wave packet dropping down thru the Rockies just split…one to the Ohio Valley and another to Arizona. GFS pulled that move some with the last storm before correcting late. CMC was doing this a couple days ago too
 
griteater said:
Wave packet dropping down thru the Rockies just split…one to the Ohio Valley and another to Arizona. GFS pulled that move some with the last storm before correcting late. CMC was doing this a couple days ago too
Click to expand...
Yeah I think we’re still at a point that we’re gonna see different solutions. Ultimately I think Wednesday as the data sampling is better is when we’ll see a solution form. There is just so many moving parts with this set up
 
Personally I think the gfs looks about how you’d want it to at this point, for this to work out for anyone south of Virginia we need to keep this ots for as long as possible
 
Models clearly showing now the options we have here. Haven’t seen many inland solutions .. so I’m willing to bet we’re dealing with a 1. out to sea scenario (nothing but cold for us) 2. Up the coastline (best case scenario snowing to beat the band) 3. Middle ground solution (a light event(flizzards) for many as a phase tries to get going but is too late for us and of course the NE gets this beast)

Right now I would continue to harp that option 3 seems the most likely scenario given current guidance. BUT this is another situation where very minute changes in the H5 evolution can have massive impacts on storm development and track which has big implication for our weather this weekend. With this much lead time still remaining I kind of like the models moving further East at this time vs west .. as we have all seen the trends west we usually see in the 24-72 hour range
 
Disco_Lemonade said:
Personally I think the gfs looks about how you’d want it to at this point, for this to work out for anyone south of Virginia we need to keep this ots for as long as possible
Click to expand...
It's not really ots though. It's sheared out which is really bad if we want the energy consolidated at the base of the trough in order to amplify quicker.
 
Rain Cold said:
That may be better than the last run. That's rain for you, though, buddy!

And the GFS is allowed one bad run. It needs a break. It's probably tired from whipping the Euro all over the place this winter.
Click to expand...
That’s a big snow for us on the JMA! ?

If I had a nickel for every day 5 snow the JMA showed for Raleigh. ?‍♂️

99FB9270-D9D3-49E6-A5ED-848965585462.png
 
I don't see the big cause for concern. Both/all waves are really still stuck in their parent trough/vortex somewhere north/south of AK. Let's at least save the freak outs until they become their own identifiable features that can be initialized.
 
SD said:
I don't see the big cause for concern. Both/all waves are really still stuck in their parent trough/vortex somewhere north/south of AK. Let's at least save the freak outs until they become their own identifiable features that can be initialized.
Click to expand...
We have a clear target…day 3 or so we will see if models converge or diverge from that energy coming out. Let’s hope RGEM shows that tonight or into tomorrow.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top