Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

[NCSNOW]

I remember the days when people wouldn’t even consider the RGEM solution (any time before this winter) and now we are looking at it like it’s the EURO of old. Just funny to see how things change so fast.

Its Grits fault for flying that maple leaf flag the other day lol.

Hey is fv3 the old gfs or a beta test of new one?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

GFS looks slightly worse

Yeah holding back just a little more with a slightly less favorable angle

 

[iGRXY]

Definitely worse

 

[NCSNOW]

Spread out energy is late

 

[NCSNOW]

Gfs wets bed right out of gate, never recovers in time. Maybe by 6z it figures it out.
Going to bed riding the nam, sref, fv3. Didnt see wrf. Holy grail of medelling right there.

 

[NCSNOW]

Fro with the 3.7

 

[BelmontWX79]

Fro with the 3.7

View attachment 110531

Gotta love that bullseye right over Charlotte!

 

[jrips27]

Think the GEFS might be slightly worse but we will see

 

[NCSNOW]

Looks same to me as 18z

 

[iGRXY]

GEFS probably going to be worse

 

[jrips27]

It’s a slightly less deep

 

[Metwannabe]

GEFS smidge worse but not horrible

 

[NCSNOW]

Gefs notch drier than 18z.

 

[Mackenzie]

Overall, think the GEFS is pretty similar to 18z. Little change at 500mb. There does seem to be a little more consensus within the individual members for the SLP position, but largely similar -- may lead to more of consolidation within the mean GEFS precip and less outliers to skew precip field

 

[iGRXY]

Still okay for far eastern Nc but worse for everyone else through 87.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GEFS smidge worse but not horrible

View attachment 110543

If you showed me this map last month and said this is what the GFS ensembles will show at hour 75 one day next month I would be licking my chops let’s tamper any cliff jumping tonight fellas

 

[Metwannabe]

If you showed me this map last month and said this is what the GFS ensembles will show at hour 75 one day next month I would be licking my chops let’s tamper any cliff jumping tonight fellas

Nobody is cliff jumping let's tamper telling everyone how they should react tonight fella

 

[Faco Thomas]

The CMC has a deeper trough,but the Low Pressure system is much futher north.

 

[CaryWx]

I will say this. These later phase runs on the other 0z suites make me believe the 6z NAM will more likely be different than it's 12z run than actually like it. Of course that is my belief prior to the 0z euro run.

 

[ILMRoss]

i was neutral on the christian mccaffery model, deeper but a little quicker and we don't really win the "where is it cutting off" sweepstakes. some mixed signals everywhere tonight, euro will break the tie.