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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

I showed my wife some post on here this evening to prove to her I was not the biggest dork/weenie in the world. Not calling names, just saying. I still have no idea what to expect tomorrow eve.
Still thinking 1-3 here in Roanoke. Better than nothing.
 
View attachment 111173Now that’s consistency

Yeah, exactly... It seems like there are multiple low centers and the GFS continues to be confused on which one should be the primary. I've seen this same thing going on with multiple mesoscale and globals. Lots of confusion ongoing. Reminds me of what we dealt with on the January 2018 bombogenesis that occurred..
 
Tbh this looks great for the night before .. 1-2 inches for everyone with someone who will be lucky with banding .. it’s like we’re all playing the lottery .. some of us will win our money back and some will cash in big! B48B0609-70DC-4FA4-9C42-19909CFAB182.jpeg
 
Yeah, exactly... It seems like there are multiple low centers and the GFS continues to be confused on which one should be the primary. I've seen this same thing going on with multiple mesoscale and globals. Lots of confusion ongoing. Reminds me of what we dealt with on the January 2018 bombogenesis that occurred..
Hrrr continuing the trend of bouncing the low around off the SE coast trying to decide which one becomes dominate
 
Over 40” for Boston. Their all-time record is 27.6” back on Presidents Day weekend 2003.

View attachment 111193
I was in Dover, MA for that, which is ~20mi SW of Boston. It was epic! The following year got to catch a 20" storm there. If you ever have the chance get a front row seat for a Nor'easter, totally worth it!!
 
Mhx sounds confident.

Forecast challenges remain with the snow
potential of this coastal low with many factors fully reliant on
the timing and rapid intensification of this coastal low, both
factors of which are notoriously difficult to model
. The general
evolution for this system has the upper level trough becoming
more amplified as it digs across the Southeast, allowing for
rapid deepening of the coastal low. Trough becomes more
negatively tilted Sat morning and begins to lift across the Mid
Atlantic seaboard. Strong CAA on the back side of the low will
allow for overnight temps to drop across the FA and help
transition rain to snow by early Sat AM and continuing through
the mid to late morning hours.
 
Charlotte has lost the band on the 00z Euro. Now it looks like Burlington is the place to be.
Tell you boys what Global has knocked this out of the park all week. The UkMET. You can go back to Mondays run, using the 10;1 accum map and see it continuously paint this narrow finger of precip down out of VA in western /Central piedmont of NC. I thought it was sniffing glue, but It has held serve and never waivered. Well lo and behold most models have come into line with it.
Now I'm not saying, have no idea exactly where, who gets the big finger jackpot stripe. But its remarkable if it unfolds tonight that this got picked up on so early by a global. Cause lets face it, this like all big phasers are tough to nail down exactly, so sensitive to just one minor tweak.
The UKMET has had a reputation as a leader in nailing down big phasers, espeacilly for the SE. So its still up there in my book for the mid to long range most consistent on these type of situations.

Heres my fav from Wednesday

*****OLD RUN****


sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
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I dont know this Doesn’t really scream over performer to me lol View attachment 111197
Idk this still looks pretty good.. on this model anyways, soundings haven’t changed and mid level lapse rates have trended steeper, lots of lift in the snow growth zone, in real life this probably translates to a heavy band 12EB5335-31CE-4941-BBA6-511CC4D9BEDC.png
 
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I guess this subtle shift on the Euro is ticking whatever happens tonight a little east. ?‍♂️

trend-ecmwf_full-2022012800-f030.500hv.conus.gif
 
I guess this subtle shift on the Euro is ticking whatever happens tonight a little east. ?‍♂️

View attachment 111207
The 6z RGEM snows for roughly 10-12 hours and only drops around an inch over most of the area. A bit of a step back fro. The 0z run.
 
The 6z RGEM snows for roughly 10-12 hours and only drops around an inch over most of the area. A bit of a step back fro. The 0z run.

Yeah, that was a bummer to wake up to. I guess we should be happy at the prospect of seeing 1" of snow...who knows when the next time we might see that.
 
RGEM and ICON have been money for this event. Every model caving to them
Even the Korean model did better than the NAM and that’s just embarrassing. I’ll be glad when they replace that trash model. It needs to be turned off.
 
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Snapshot of active alerts this morning.
1643375877621.png
WWAs stretch out most of VA, NC, and into northern SC. Warnings for mountain elevation counties, and far eastern VA.

Oh and can’t really see from this image, but Delmarva peninsula has Blizzard Warnings. (sigh)
 
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