Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

[Mitch West]

00z GFS & GEFS went away from the 18z runs, but the 06z GFS & GEFS brought it back. The 06 GEFS has increased from the 00z, but not quite at the level as the 18z GFS & GEFS. Notice how the only different in the energy between the 2 is that the 06z digs just a little more.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wish the rgem didn’t look like dogcrap

 

[lexxnchloe]

The last storm had ups and downs. Thats to be expected. This could easily move back west a bit. Go chase in Elizabeth city for now.

 

[stephend122080]

EPS still making westward adjustments with the trough

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[NCSNOW]

6z GEFS. How does this not result in a moderate event. ?‍

Haven’t looked at the other overnight runs but hoping it’s close to this.

View attachment 110573

Here's why. Look close at 18z run last night in southern Mississippi and see how sharper the trough is and just a hair tick further west. Then look at same frame for 0z and 6z. Couple hours latter sharpening up and more positive tilt. Barely noticeable, but makes all the difference in the world. The sensible wx for our micro climate/back yards has a long way to go on this one before we iron it out.

18z last night

6z most recent

 

[KyloG]

GEFS v/s EPS

Can clearly see why the GEFS is better and besides the NAM it's on it's own...and we know how that works out.

 

[KyloG]

Seems like the low up in Hudson Bay has a say in this too...

Feels like we are playing jenga.

 

[ILMRoss]

Wish the rgem didn’t look like dogcrap

Actually thought the rgem looked a lot better at h5 than 00z. Lp placement got hijacked by a northern cluster of storms off the VA coast that I haven’t really seen in any other model. It would of had better surface reflection if that stuff wasn’t there

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[DopplerWx]

Man idk. Still love this look even 66 hrs out. And the fact the gfs and euro still spit out 1” even with the less than ideal runs. I just don’t ever remember a time when we didn’t have a super amped system trend west even up to go time.

 

[Chazwin]

View attachment 110590View attachment 110591

The EURO has been very consistent with backside stuff for several days now.

 

[Stormdoc]

Man idk. Still love this look even 66 hrs out. And the fact the gfs and euro still spit out 1” even with the less than ideal runs. I just don’t ever remember a time when we didn’t have a super amped system trend west even up to go

Yeah I agree. This is so close to our benchmark for the Carolinas and eastern Georgia, as in just a few mm pressure lower and we have a raging snowstorm. Just need to find a little more energy in the next 72 hours at the base of the trough

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Does anyone have the 06z EURO?


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[SD]

Does anyone have the 06z EURO?


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It's posted about 5 posts before this

 

[ajr]

Just noticed this — it looks like that in the Gulf is eventually what becomes our storm

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

It's posted about 5 posts before this

Thanks. Sorry I thought that was the 0z


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[Deleted member 1449]

Does anyone have the 06z EURO?


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I only have the free data from TD at 72 hours.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS showing that finger band associated with the upper level trough, like the euro in the NC Piedmont, then the higher QPF with the coastal

 

[Metwannabe]

06z eps still decent and tbh in a great spot at this range

 

[KyloG]

06z eps still decent and tbh in a great spot at this range

You are in such a great spot...you are further NE than Rocky Mount right?