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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

Our LP on the coast has remained same strength past 4 runs of Nam. This 12z is a little further north with placement, but fortunately still tucked in pretty tight, not out over or east of the gulf stream.
 
crazy thing is that i think it can be better. both the nam and the rgem have this nonsense forming near bermuda
1643207833699.png
that really stunts the lp development/moisture transport in the early stages. funny thing is it still looks like it overcame things. stranger things have happen but i just.... don't think that convective mass will be there.
 
Still spitting light in NE NC at this frame

sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
malak05 said:
Good for the Carolina boys.... It just seems this thing won't tilt early enough and further west for anybody else it's just there winter
Click to expand...
Yes. But, it is so close for us Ga. peeps. IDK if we can get the mean trough further west, but if that southern vort-max comes out even six hours sooner a deeper negatively tilted or even cut off southern lobe is on the table IMO.
 
ILMRoss said:
crazy thing is that i think it can be better. both the nam and the rgem have this nonsense forming near bermuda
View attachment 110621
that really stunts the lp development/moisture transport in the early stages. funny thing is it still looks like it overcame things. stranger things have happen but i just.... don't think that convective mass will be there.
Click to expand...
I was noticing that too. The end of the 3k Nam didn't have that.
ref1km_ptype.conus.png
 
ILMRoss said:
crazy thing is that i think it can be better. both the nam and the rgem have this nonsense forming near bermuda
View attachment 110621
that really stunts the lp development/moisture transport in the early stages. funny thing is it still looks like it overcame things. stranger things have happen but i just.... don't think that convective mass will be there.
Click to expand...
Especially since is goes from 1004mb at this frame you posted to like 996mb in the next one. Glad Nam is keeping the true surface Low in close to the coast
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Yes. But, it is so close for us Ga. peeps. IDK if we can get the mean trough further west, but if that southern vort-max comes out even six hours sooner a deeper negatively tilted or even cut off southern lobe is on the table IMO.
Click to expand...

I don't see it. The NAM is currently the best case scenario for the SE and it's still not really there for us. Maybe far Eastern GA(like Augusta), but don't see it for many other places in GA. Could be wrong though...
 
Another thing is the Euro is catching western piedmont with those finger strips from NS energy flying by and crashing into the coastal forming. Its late with the phase compared to all other modeling. Why we don't see that on the nam as much to my untrained eye. Definitely think the Nam is they way to root for / go here. Get neutral and not be messing with that boogeyman reflection/convection wilm ross pointed out. Should/would have been more precip back into Carolinas imo.
 
ILMRoss said:
crazy thing is that i think it can be better. both the nam and the rgem have this nonsense forming near bermuda
View attachment 110621
that really stunts the lp development/moisture transport in the early stages. funny thing is it still looks like it overcame things. stranger things have happen but i just.... don't think that convective mass will be there.
Click to expand...
Not 100% sure it's convective nonsense. That's the residual storm system and lingering boundary that'll be hanging around FL over the next few days. Could still be present as our storm gets going and could be a wildcard in how things end up forming along the coast depending on how long it lingers and disrupts moisture transport
I'd imagine our storm will still end up pulling closer to the coast along the gulf stream and more general baroclinic zone though
98fndfd_init_2022012600.gif
sfcthetae_b.conus.png
 
ILMRoss said:
crazy thing is that i think it can be better. both the nam and the rgem have this nonsense forming near bermuda
View attachment 110621
that really stunts the lp development/moisture transport in the early stages. funny thing is it still looks like it overcame things. stranger things have happen but i just.... don't think that convective mass will be there.
Click to expand...
I was about to say the same thing. The sfc doesn't really match the mid and upper levels that well until it magically jerks the sfc low west
 
NCSNOW said:
Another thing is the Euro is catching western piedmont with those finger strips from NS energy flying by and crashing into the coastal forming. Its late with the phase compared to all other modeling. Why we don't see that on the nam as much to my untrained eye. Definitely think the Nam is they way to root for / go here. Get neutral and not be messing with that boogeyman reflection/convection wilm ross pointed out. Should/would have been more precip back into Carolinas imo.
Click to expand...
Yeah,especially with the Low being that far east. If Phasing does happen like suggested on the NAM, The Low pressure system would be stronger and futher west and we would be looking at a even bigger storm for SC and NC than shown. I still can't get excited however becasue the NAM solution isn't being supported by other models and we know it performed with the last storm
 
ILMRoss said:
crazy thing is that i think it can be better. both the nam and the rgem have this nonsense forming near bermuda
View attachment 110621
that really stunts the lp development/moisture transport in the early stages. funny thing is it still looks like it overcame things. stranger things have happen but i just.... don't think that convective mass will be there.
Click to expand...

Yeah, looking at that just makes me sigh for clt area. No matter what the clown maps say, if a low forms that far east off the coast, I don't feel like anybody in the western/central piedmont is going to get anything other than maybe backside flurries. Really feel this is just too late of a tilt for us. Hoping it's not too late for eastern NC.
 
Mackenzie said:
Not 100% sure it's convective nonsense. That's the residual storm system and lingering boundary that'll be hanging around FL over the next few days. Could still be present as our storm gets going and could be a wildcard in how things end up forming along the coast depending on how long it lingers and disrupts moisture transport
I'd imagine our storm will still end up pulling closer to the coast along the gulf stream and more general baroclinic zone though
Click to expand...
you're right and it's going to be a factor. that being said i don't see the convection having that much tug and influence on the whole complex. scanned as a little convective-feedbacky to me, there's a reason we don't really utilize these things that much when dealing with the tropics
 
Heelyes said:
When do we start to take the NAM serious? 24hrs from now? 24hrs before the storm or never?
Click to expand...
Never unless it gets this storm correct. I have no faith in the NAM unless other models start following it’s footsteps .. I suppose the GFS looks similar which makes sense since they’re in the same camp but I would love to see more reliable models jump on board as well .. still lots of time for wiggle room
 
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