Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

[Shawn]

Same time NAM vs RGEM:

 

[SD]

Yeah for real. Rgem nees to sharpen up. There's time.

Yeah the rgem shows my concern here that we just go flurries and cold.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yeah the rgem shows my concern here that we just go flurries and cold.

I like being on the line of snowstorm and light event 48+ hours out .. there’s always a NW jog by go time .. we sit patiently

 

[LukeBarrette]

Same time NAM vs RGEM:
View attachment 110644

Pretty easy to see it’s all about the speed of the system and if H5 is amplified enough.

 

[Heelyes]

I almost like being too far west right now, how many times have we been burned by being in the bullseye at this stage? Northwest trend is almost a given just how much?

 

[NCSNOW]

hr 33 GFS is further west SS energy

 

[BullCityWx]

I almost like being too far west right now, how many times have we been burned by being in the bullseye at this stage? Northwest trend is almost a given just how much?

We literally just went through nearly this exact scenario. It wasnt even a week ago.

 

[SD]

I like being on the line of snowstorm and light event 48+ hours out .. there’s always a NW jog by go time .. we sit patiently

There's always a NW trend until there isn't right? The nam probably has the overall precip shield more correct but it's probably too high on qpf and overall coverage. Until we find a way to really bomb out at the latitude of ILM or south I have a hard time seeing a large snow here

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Gfs looks much worse

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

GFS isn't going to end well:

 

[Faco Thomas]

I almost like being too far west right now, how many times have we been burned by being in the bullseye at this stage? Northwest trend is almost a given just how much?

A west trend is far from guaranteed here. The west trend will have everything to do if the phase occurs soon enough and if energy in the SW can move eastward. None of the Models outside of the NAM really that much hope for areas outside of NE North Carolina and points north for there.

 

[Faco Thomas]

GFS isn't going to end well:

Yeah it might time to move on. I did say wait until the energy gets sampled first,but with those sort of trends,I really don't see much hope for anyone outside of NE North Carolina and points north and even those areas might not be looking a big storm if we keep trending in this direction.

 

[superjames1992]

Snow breaking out across NC at hr 66 on the 12z GFS.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lee side band Concord NC special ?

 

[Heelyes]

A west trend is far from guaranteed here. The west trend will have everything to do if the phase occurs soon enough and if energy in the SW can move eastward. None of the Models outside of the NAM really that much hope for areas outside of NE North Carolina and points north for there.

When I say west I mean a few counties not states.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

I’m telling you. Upper lows can over perform. I think that’s what most areas should pay attention to. How good is the RGEM when ULLS?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Soundings under that Lee side band are beautiful and convective, 7C mid level lapse rates with the column way below freezing

 

[CaryWx]

Why is there a dry slot. Transition to coastal?

 

[Broken024]

Mid Atlantic and Northeast must be crapping bricks after that gfs run.