Cary_Snow95
Member
Energy being held back has been a real nuisance this year
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
It kinda struck me like that, almost like a B.
Cmon man
this is hell
this is hell
There’s always this 
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
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GEFS backed off some but says we still have a chance
The biggest thing that sticks out to me about those is that most seem to support the idea that the EURO has been showing for several days now of the upper trough induced back side for the Piedmont… there would likely be convective pockets within that with very intense rates… perhaps similar to February 2013
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Honestly we’re just seeing the windsheild wiper effect atp on models, seeing ticks back and fourth, but I like the euro here in this setup, models are converging on the euro look. perhaps 1-2 for the Lee side band and a bit more in E/NE NC
Even the later phased members, have that band
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yup that’s what I’ve been interested in for the last couple days for us in the western part of the state. I wonder how well the RGEM is with upper troughs. Even the icon shows a back side snow band.
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I think that’s a reasonable expectation at this point, but we certainly need to watch the Hi-res to see if they start picking up on convection in that backside stuff
Cary_Snow95
Member
Kind of. For central nc though the gfs and NAM’s from last night is what we needed. Stronger closed off energy with the low tucked right offshore. We are quickly losing any hope of that
Cary_Snow95
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
If i could place a low where most of NC got good snow thats where i would put it. Last storm we had some really good last minute changes. I imagine things will be somewhat different at 18z and by 6Z tomorrow different still.
With such a sensitive set up you can’t just look at one run and think it’s 100% the right answer .. windshield wiper effect is always happening especially for a storm more than 2 days away .. we’re not going to get a pants bursting run every 6 hours especially when the H5 can take small steps in any direction and cause major impacts .. we will bring you up from the cliff in 24 hours
last weds we saw something similar with trends east and i thought we had no shot, and then thurs and friday things trended back quickly.
I see why no one is talking about the GEM. It's downright terrible for winter weather. Little precipitation outside of the Outer Banks. Even NE North Carolina doesn't get a lot of snow on this run.
