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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

SnowNiner said:
Yeah, looking at that just makes me sigh for clt area. No matter what the clown maps say, if a low forms that far east off the coast, I don't feel like anybody in the western/central piedmont is going to get anything other than maybe backside flurries. Really feel this is just too late of a tilt for us. Hoping it's not too late for eastern NC.
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Do you literally say that every storm we get. We were never going to get snow from the coastal low. It’s the upper level low that the Piedmont would get snow. I’ve seen upper level is produced 1 to 3 inches of snow several times.
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FV3 at the end of its run favored the NAM's solution. FV3's evolution was a littler quicker, but the amplitude and tilt occurred at pretty much the same time as it crossed the Mississippi River. Precip really gets going at at hour 60 and probably would have been a decent event for most of NC8542427f-dad8-4823-98e4-cd9043ddd104.gifezgif-2-f01c3f6423.gif
 
Not that I have much if any faith in the WRF models but this shows what the 5H might look like if the southern vort-max doesn't temporarily park itself on the SW. This model keeps it in phase the whole time and winds up looking like this:
wrf-arw_z500_vort_us_49.png
 
Hey look that Jack Sillin guy who I don't know who he is is mentioning latent heat above...

Now isn't that what happened in Janurary of 2000? What the ETA failed to realize...? I see what you're doing there Jack... I'm onto you.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Do you literally say that every storm we get. We were never going to get snow from the coastal low. It’s the upper level low that the Piedmont would get snow. I’ve seen upper level is produced 1 to 3 inches of snow several times.
c2b93694e636247a5967c77803e88f50.jpg



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Haha, yes for the last two that were ridiculously off the coast to not benefit us. Interesting point about the trough through. I guess we'll see.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I don't see it. The NAM is currently the best case scenario for the SE and it's still not really there for us. Maybe far Eastern GA(like Augusta), but don't see it for many other places in GA. Could be wrong though...
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You won’t be wrong. It’s an outlier that still doesn’t deliver for most of GA. It’s almost 100% a coastal storm with some benefits to the Carolinas.


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The RGEM did well with the last storm but that doesn't mean it is going to lead the way here. The two situations are different. It's still a good model, don't get me wrong.

For the NAM, it's probably best to view somewhere near the 48 hour mark as the delineation between good and grain of salt land. If there's anything to be gleaned trend-wise within the first 48 or so, I'd give that more weight than what happens after that period, particularly if it's arriving at different solutions than most other guidance.

We're really going to want the globals all stepping towards a better outcome pretty soon. Two steps back, one step forward is not what we want to see.

Gun to head, this ends up farther west than they're seeing right now.
 
You can clearly see that the RGEM even at 700mb is dry vs other guidance when quickly taking a look. Something it did not look like for the last event.....
 
Lickwx said:
Is the rgem an outlier ? Euro , cmc , uk haven’t been seen in the threads for a while either .
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Then post them and discuss it, nothing stopping you.... if you want to complain that it isn't being discussed do it in the whamby.
 
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