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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

@KyloG @SD and @Rain Cold could all chase one of these bands in Wake Co. Y'all could do a snow starved anonymous meet up

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It's obvious that even at the 11th hour models are having a very difficult time resolving all the dynamics with this system. The HRRR is shifting the backside upper level driven snow east while also trying to "fill in" that dry slot between that and the coastal low. I know models are 1000x better today but if there was still a major bust potential in the cards, this type of complex setup is it.
 
metwannabe said:
@KyloG @SD and @Rain Cold could all chase one of these bands in Wake Co. Y'all could do a snow starved anonymous meet up

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Definitely looks convective. This kind of setup will give a person 2" but his neighbor 10 miles away a half inch. We'll just have to wait until tonight to see how the larger band develops and then how the sub-bands set up.
 
Rain Cold said:
Watch this area here today. Nothing should be going on here. If the radar starts to light up, head to the store.

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Yeh, I looked at the radar and was like…wut? I know we’re out of the game but still didn’t expect to see even light returns today. Hope it bodes well for y’all later on.E5B55247-7A25-4B9B-8B7C-7AF876CD83B9.jpeg
 
DustinWx said:
Yes sir! Prob will post some videos as well. First time being in a nor easter so should be quite the experience
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You are going to absolutely love it. I was lucky enough to be in Boston (I guess technically Newton) for the 17 inches back in Jan 2018 during the blizzard. Just awesome. These videos were from my walkabout early in the storm. As usual, doesn't do it justice compared to being there in person. I had icicles growing on my eyelashes, eyebrows and beard after only a few minutes.

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Ron Burgundy said:
Yeh, I looked at the radar and was like…wut? I know we’re out of the game but still didn’t expect to see even light returns today. Hope it bodes well for y’all later on.View attachment 111216
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I noticed most of the short range models (HRRR/NAM/RGEM/RAP) bring some snow showers down to ATL tonight. 9z RAP is the most robust out of all of them. I guess it’s worth keeping an eye on.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
I noticed most of the short range models (HRRR/NAM/RGEM/RAP) bring some snow showers down to ATL tonight. 9z RAP is the most robust out of all of them. I guess it’s worth keeping an eye on.
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Ive noticed they seem to be a bit further west with more precip as well.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
I noticed most of the short range models (HRRR/NAM/RGEM/RAP) bring some snow showers down to ATL tonight. 9z RAP is the most robust out of all of them. I guess it’s worth keeping an eye on.
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If we get below freezing fast enough, and there are some snow showers, we could get a car topper in some areas... maybe.
 
Surprised how thick the clouds are right out of the gate this morning. Help slow the thawing of the frozen ground. Speaking of frozen ground its been almost 2 weeks since that big storm and up in NW NC the yards still have a foot plus of packed ice in them.
 
NCSNOW said:
Surprised how thick the clouds are right out of the gate this morning. Help slow the thawing of the frozen ground. Speaking of frozen ground its been almost 2 weeks since that big storm and up in NW NC the yards still have a foot plus of packed ice in them.
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I noticed that walking in to work this morning. The ground is frozen solid. That should help with sticking tonight.
 
Rain Cold said:
Watch this area here today. Nothing should be going on here. If the radar starts to light up, head to the store.

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Gale & (Possible) WWA's here on the coast here shortly..

First cup O' Joe this morning..
Looked @ the Radar..
Showed freezing precip over my head..
Went out & looked..

Sure enough It's Virga falling, from over head.

Through the (semi) broken clouds..
You could see, (Jet contrails/Cirrus clouds) are FLYING.. @ (30K?) feet West too about due North east?

Current temps are @ 32F
Winds North at 5mph..
 
Will be a interesting watch between the CAMs today as far as who resolves this band. FV3 remains consistent with its meso-low and better lift near the DGZ around the Charlotte metro. Its temps are really warm at the start though. Speaking of temps, we need to watch those as well. Some modeling has places like the southern peidmont approaching 50 today. Hopefully some of these thicker clouds can knock that down some.
 
fv3 looks good, more convection than the nam. still think we see a nice shot at t-1" from clt thru rdu. after 3 years of a trace we can't complain. i would prefer a quick burst of heavy snow vs a 6hr flizzard any day.
fv3-hires_ref_frzn_seus_14.png
 
Loganelliott99 said:
FWIW upper level systems are typically under modeled. Like 2 weeks ago when CLT got an extra inch. Wasn’t even showing up on models until it was happening
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Yeah that was a really bad bust by all short range models that setup. It is pretty typical for those to over perform. I press the doubt button on 50F today like many models show IF cloud cover holds
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah that was a really bad bust by all short range models that setup. It is pretty typical for those to over perform. I press the doubt button on 50F today like many models show IF cloud cover holds
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I agree. The facts that the models are even showing something is encouraging. Like on the HRRR here. I think the green areas are snow across the Piedmont IMO ACE7DC7D-4320-4528-8D0B-3DFC2C6C9215.png
 
Current DGZ/Saturation.. it's gonna be a while. Patience.

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