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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

Interesting to note almost all models I can see right now show minimal coverage of what’s going on around Kentucky .. more moisture than models seeing right now could mean more moisture for us down the road
Don’t see many ping reports of ground truth though
 
The rest of the run showed some nice light snow. Curious on what the better maps show. Past my bed time.
Might as well stay up 15 more minutes. I've seen that band near Gboro show up on several models today. Pretty consistent.
 
The 3K starts the precip in the Triad much sooner, like around 5pm. It depicts snow every hour here for the next 12 hours but the clown maps don't reflect much accumulation. Strange. I was expecting something like the FV3 maps.
The Euro, GFS, NAM and HRR all seem to have it starting into the Triad around 5-7pm with snow for most of the night. The 0z HRRR appears to show some much heavier precip with the onset vs. the NAM; but it still only leaves us with 1"-2" in the Triad. I'm not sure if we'll see more. it seems the past two events overperformed vs. 24h-36h out models. My memory tends towards rose colored glasses; so I'll stick with the higher hopes.

At least we'll have the ground temps working for us; I still have foot plus piles of iced up sleet from two weeks ago. But those sun angles...
 
Being near the jackpot zone 12 hours from event ?? Now that’s where u want to be .. seems to be the coastal influencing our totals around here … this is exhausting just to end up probably under an inch but I’ll be intrigued still
That 9-12z on the RDPS Sat brings a load thru Wake. See the heavy band?
 
Why is no one in the Charlotte area posting the RGEM? ?‍♂️

If Hickory to Charlotte gets blanked, I’ll be back in here on Saturday flying the red Maple Leaf flag again
Really nailing down the band with the upper low is painful. We may be pulling the spc meso page and matching it to the hrrr during the day tomorrow. I have a feeling we see a couple over/under performing surprises tomorrow
 
The snowband is nearly impossible to pinpoint, but hopefully it will be close to the piedmont. If not in your back yard it'll be close enough to chase. It could be a swath 10-50 miles wide. We have seen it quite a few times in CLT. What we know is that with heavy rates the temps will plummet and a few of us will be overly surprised. It's fingers-crossed time and my wife thinks I am the biggest dork ever, so I really need this to overperform;);)
 
The snowband is nearly impossible to pinpoint, but hopefully it will be close to the piedmont. If not in your back yard it'll be close enough to chase. It could be a swath 10-50 miles wide. We have seen it quite a few times in CLT. What we know is that with heavy rates the temps will plummet and a few of us will be overly surprised. It's fingers-crossed time and my wife thinks I am the biggest dork ever, so I really need this to overperform;);)
I showed my wife some post on here this evening to prove to her I was not the biggest dork/weenie in the world. Not calling names, just saying. I still have no idea what to expect tomorrow eve.
 
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