Heelyes
Member
Someone unplug the nam, it's time.
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
FV3 has better resolution and scales with increased computer resources, this will be an early test, very large gap inside day 2.
Interesting to note almost all models I can see right now show minimal coverage of what’s going on around Kentucky .. more moisture than models seeing right now could mean more moisture for us down the road
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
The 3K starts the precip in the Triad much sooner, like around 5pm. It depicts snow every hour here for the next 12 hours but the clown maps don't reflect much accumulation. Strange. I was expecting something like the FV3 maps.
lexxnchloe
Member
If the gfs makes the same adjustment the nam did then NE NC could easily outdo last weeks storm.
Don’t see many ping reports of ground truth though
Some of the CAMs are west with the band, some models are east with it, a few are in between
Nomanslandva
Member
Fro, are you running for office? Haha, seriously I feel like this could be just another shaft. I have been waiting for your RAP post to keep my weeniie hopes alive though.
That first shot with the coastal is interesting to me. Let's see if anything else supports it
Might as well stay up 15 more minutes. I've seen that band near Gboro show up on several models today. Pretty consistent.
The Euro, GFS, NAM and HRR all seem to have it starting into the Triad around 5-7pm with snow for most of the night. The 0z HRRR appears to show some much heavier precip with the onset vs. the NAM; but it still only leaves us with 1"-2" in the Triad. I'm not sure if we'll see more. it seems the past two events overperformed vs. 24h-36h out models. My memory tends towards rose colored glasses; so I'll stick with the higher hopes.
At least we'll have the ground temps working for us; I still have foot plus piles of iced up sleet from two weeks ago. But those sun angles...
Yeah looks good. Precip maxes all over the place, depending on your model of choice. At least you can go to bed now with that image in mind.
Beaut
Being near the jackpot zone 12 hours from event ?? Now that’s where u want to be .. seems to be the coastal influencing our totals around here … this is exhausting just to end up probably under an inch but I’ll be intrigued still
Here is Eric Webb's call map. It's interesting that he leaves CLT out of the snow band. It will certainly be interesting to see how the snow band(s) set up.
That 9-12z on the RDPS Sat brings a load thru Wake. See the heavy band?
Lol good grief 
Hypsometric
Member
Just insane that such subtle changes are making such a big difference. If only we could ride this trend until verification...
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All hail king rgem
Really nailing down the band with the upper low is painful. We may be pulling the spc meso page and matching it to the hrrr during the day tomorrow. I have a feeling we see a couple over/under performing surprises tomorrowWhy is no one in the Charlotte area posting the RGEM? ?
If Hickory to Charlotte gets blanked, I’ll be back in here on Saturday flying the red Maple Leaf flag again
The snowband is nearly impossible to pinpoint, but hopefully it will be close to the piedmont. If not in your back yard it'll be close enough to chase. It could be a swath 10-50 miles wide. We have seen it quite a few times in CLT. What we know is that with heavy rates the temps will plummet and a few of us will be overly surprised. It's fingers-crossed time and my wife thinks I am the biggest dork ever, so I really need this to overperform
SnowNiner
Member
LOL, is the GFS still basically missing Boston while the Euro is dropping 40”? Wow.
Nomanslandva
Member
I showed my wife some post on here this evening to prove to her I was not the biggest dork/weenie in the world. Not calling names, just saying. I still have no idea what to expect tomorrow eve.The snowband is nearly impossible to pinpoint, but hopefully it will be close to the piedmont. If not in your back yard it'll be close enough to chase. It could be a swath 10-50 miles wide. We have seen it quite a few times in CLT. What we know is that with heavy rates the temps will plummet and a few of us will be overly surprised. It's fingers-crossed time and my wife thinks I am the biggest dork ever, so I really need this to overperform
GFS pounds Boston
Still, 12” is very different than 40”, hah. Run of the mill up there.
wake4est
Member
- Joined
- Jan 3, 2017
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It drops 2 feet on Boston doesn’t it?
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