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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

RollTide18 said:
So close


namconus_ref_frzn_seus_47.png
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You are right so close!!!!
 
Jessy89 said:
There room where the precipitation field can be a little further NW. so I’d think a light event is possible but anything more then a light event I’m just not seeing it. Unless this low gets started in the gulf


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Again the surface low is not what is driving the moisture until it is sliding out of our area. It’s all about how the far the trough digs south and the energy phasing that gets it going to negative tilt and increasing precip. The surface low is not what is really going to give us any moisture back this way and usually doesn’t.
 
iGRXY said:
That is not true at all. The surface low is not driving the precip over the western Carolinas. It is driven from the H5 Dynamics. The surface low is what it gets eastern Carolinas, more specifically eastern NC the massive totals right now.
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I understand that but wouldn’t that precipitation transfer quickly to the coastal low? I could see a light event in upstate 1-3 type event mostly because I can’t see it lasting very long.


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ForsythSnow said:
Actually the ICON was a step in the right direction compared to its prior runs. Here's the last 3 in order from new to old

icon_z500_vort_us_22.png
icon_z500_vort_us_24.png
icon_z500_vort_us_26.png
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Agreed, improvement buy closer to reality most likely. Enough to remind us not to trust the NAM, yet haha
 
iGRXY said:
That is not true at all. The surface low is not driving the precip over the western Carolinas. It is driven from the H5 Dynamics. The surface low is what it gets eastern Carolinas, more specifically eastern NC the massive totals right now.
Click to expand...

Question. What are H5 Dynamics? Google is not being my friend.


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Jessy89 said:
I understand that but wouldn’t that precipitation transfer quickly to the coastal low? I could see a light event in upstate 1-3 type event mostly because I can’t see it lasting very long.


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You get a phase and a trough digging like the NAM, especially if it continues to show a phase further west as it has trended, and it would dump quite a bit of snow here and it would be way more than 1-3”
 
Oh know that everyone is mentioning comparisons to March 1980 and January 2000 with that NAM run. However I just looked it up, sorry I was having trouble attaching it, but the snow footprint from the NAM run is actually very similar to the late February 1989 storm.
 
rgem was indeed stellar last storm and nam was pretty uhh shall we say "tough to use as a forecasting tool" but i would recommend trying to harness the memory of a goldfish when looking at each new setup. it's good to keep context and track records in mind, but don't lean into that too hard. the rgem is going against the grain against the direction of every other model and at the end of the day you have to ask yourself if you're going to throw yourself into a tizzy because the 84 hour solution of a singular mesoscale model does not align with the nam, gfs, gfs ensembles, euro, and euro ensembles. time to find out if i'm full of hot air in about 20 minutes
 
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