Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

[Metwannabe]

I'll never forgive the NAM for this



As it is still pounding, just once just once ???

 

[ForsythSnow]

We could easily trend it to the 2000 storm. That is like one tick away. Interesting. It’s only the NAM. Everyone say it with me! It’s only the NAM. It’s only the NAM. It’s only the NAM.

With it being so far out and it being the NAM, I expect at least another day or so of W shifts with these trends until the thing gets all sampled, then there's probably a few more adjustments as the waves successfully or fail to phase. At this rate I expect them to succeed but how soon it tilts nicely is going to take a couple more days to sort out. I think this thing being exclusively a NE storm is losing likelyhood.

 

[Arcc]

Amazing how the trough keeps getting deeper. 500mb winds

That is so close to cutting off.

 

[Oconeexman]

View attachment 110494

Um okay I guess I'll take one for the team...again...back to back

 

[BullCityWx]

I'll never forgive the NAM for this

View attachment 110514

As it is still pounding, just once just once ???

View attachment 110515

The back edge stalled out from 81-84. It was fixing to pivot over a lot of us.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Rgem looks worse. Southern stream further west and northern stream quicker. Not what I wanted to see

 

[BullCityWx]

In the last frame, according to extracted data, it was 29 degrees and heavy snow.

 

[Oconeexman]

Is this what y’all call Nam’d? I think I got it. I got different colors than y’all……

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Yea me too brother again. My happy for everybody seeing snow kinda ran out last storm.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Don’t let the nam Suck y’all in. It could very well just be wrong

 

[KyloG]

RGEM going the wrong way. ?‍

Off to bed.

 

[griteater]

Dang, the RDPS is going the other way the last 2 runs....bringing the SW wave out slower

 

[iGRXY]

No not with the low developing off the Carolina coast. For it to work out for Pickens county west we need the low to develop in the gulf.


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That is not true at all. The surface low is not driving the precip over the western Carolinas. It is driven from the H5 Dynamics. The surface low is what it gets eastern Carolinas, more specifically eastern NC the massive totals right now.

 

[Chazwin]

Rgem looks worse. Southern stream further west and northern stream quicker. Not what I wanted to see

I know the RGEM has done very well the last storms, but those weren’t really dealing with a lot of phasing… how well has the RGEM done in the past with phasing systems?

 

[Rain Cold]

The back edge stalled out from 81-84. It was fixing to pivot over a lot of us.

Yep, that's exactly what would have happened if it ran out more.

It's fun to see the monster solutions, but we really need to inch forward and not make these massive shifts every cycle. Still way too much time on the clock for Mahomes to drive down the field and beat us with a warm nose.

 

[RollTide18]

So close

 

[CaryWx]

The back edge stalled out from 81-84. It was fixing to pivot over a lot of us.

Yeah, that's kind of what it looked to be about to do

 

[LukeBarrette]

I know the RGEM has done very well the last storms, but those weren’t really dealing with a lot of phasing… how well has the RGEM done in the past with phasing systems?

It did well with Jan 3 from what I remember at least for Roanoke.

 

[Jessy89]

I still believe we will get something from it

There room where the precipitation field can be a little further NW. so I’d think a light event is possible but anything more then a light event I’m just not seeing it. Unless this low gets started in the gulf


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[Metwannabe]

Oh well ICON and RGEM bringing reality back to fantasy land.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

RGEM lagging the southern peice behind like @metwannabe internet connection plan