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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

RaleighWX updated map

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This is mainly for Southern areas outside CLT/Eastern NC etc:

Those old ARW/NSSL models are pretty darn good for stormy weather; but Winter they tend to run too cold. They haven't been upgraded and likely won't be again before full replacement by the new FV3 core versions. The NAM the same idea.. FV3 core taking over..

I like the idea that the RGEM has still.. it's really showing areas who are going to have lighter precipitation with warmer temperatures towards the surface.

With that said, the RGEM tends to run a bit cold also. I like the 3KM NAM for thermal soundings and if you look closely you will see pockets of "green" on the ptype maps over the central midlands that is trying to warn that the dynamics may just be nothing.... but as you head into the Northern Midlands / CLT region the rates/dynamic cooling really takes affect.

This is a very tricky forecast for this area, and I don't envy the NWS tbh. 700mb argues deeper saturation and someone is going to get thumped by accident and it's dang near impossible to figure out who... common sense says Fairfield North -> East
 
Shawn said:
This is mainly for Southern areas outside CLT/Eastern NC etc:

Those old ARW/NSSL models are pretty darn good for stormy weather; but Winter they tend to run too cold. They haven't been upgraded and likely won't be again before full replacement by the new FV3 core versions. The NAM the same idea.. FV3 core taking over..

I like the idea that the RGEM has still.. it's really showing areas who are going to have lighter precipitation with warmer temperatures towards the surface.

With that said, the RGEM tends to run a bit cold also. I like the 3KM NAM for thermal soundings and if you look closely you will see pockets of "green" on the ptype maps over the central midlands that is trying to warn that the dynamics may just be just nothing.... but as you head into the Northern Midlands / CLT region the rates/dynamic cooling really takes affect.

This is a very tricky forecast for this area, and I don't envy the NWS tbh. 700mb argues deeper saturation and someone is going to get thumped by accident and it's dang near impossible to figure out who... common sense says Fairfield North -> East
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I really like Kershaw and Fairfield counties from what I’ve seen. It also may be a rare time that the panhandle of Lancaster does worse than southern.
 
BullCityWx said:
I really like Kershaw and Fairfield counties from what I’ve seen. It also may be a rare time that the panhandle of Lancaster does worse than southern.
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When it comes to the upper level, I think that anywhere between Charlotte and slightly Southeast across Northeastern SC is going to be a sweet spot. This thing is going to anchor down and slowly pivot outward from the guidance I am seeing.. and if anything the event as modeled continues to trend stronger with it.

Then, we have to factor in the coastal itself.. how much atlantic moisture is really going to get involved here... is this coastal actually going to verify slower, deeper, and closer to the coast? Is something going to happen that the models aren't going to handle correctly? I'm not one to bring up dates of previous storms and the model misses; but this setup isn't something too common at these latitudes and it makes one question some of the runs we have seen over the past days.... is there a surprise in store?

Is the dry slot actually well over modeled... think about those vorticity maps we saw with shrapnel all over the coastal regions of SC/NC as the base of the trough goes belligerent and tries to explode. That is something I do not expect even the shortest range models to do well.
 
^ Those WRF/ARW models have their issues, but I've seen them perform well precip wise in these types of mesoscale setups. They did well in the Feb 2013 storm that was like this one with the backside precip. Need to get closer in to go time to better pinpoint where max precip is likely to be
 
smast16 said:
more in NC than Boston from this system after it was shown to be bringing the feet.... man, the meltdown in the NE threads would be tasty!
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We're not too far away from it coming back in towards the coast up there, though.
 
ILMRoss said:
oh come on guys. i really liked the nam and i think yall are being too pessimistic.
Two superb trends here- four corners shortwave keeps ticking east. I also love, love the subtle west shifts on the western edge of the longwave trough- it's ticking further west. think that favors a little more digging and helps with the tilt issue.

View attachment 110945

Thought the surface reflection was also remarkably reasonable. gun to my head somebody tells me "draw the precip shield of a sub 1000 lp 200 miles east of ILM" i probably draw something like this.

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_37.png

3km was a little iffier with cyclogenesis, it didn't have it building towards s florida- something to keep an eye on.
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I agree. I think the next few runs of the Nam will be even better.
 
SnowNiner said:
Where do you find the lee side low forming, is that showing up still on the mesoscale models this morning? I can't find it.
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The maps on psu ewall are usually good at showing the meso low. Can see it here on the 06z GFS (top middle panel of images). It's not a Wham-Bam feature, but you can see the kink in the isobars where you can connect an inverted trough line from the meso low in the upstate to the sfc low off the coast. But there is some enhanced low level convergence associated with it (enhancing rising motion). As mentioned before, the precip will tend to form and expand in the lee of the Apps, then slowly move off to the east and southeast. Temperatures tomorrow aftn are likely to get up to 45-50, but the near sfc warm layer is tiny. Any meaningful precip should crash everything over to snow Fri evening/night

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At this juncture most models have come into agreement with that heavy band of snow pretty much centered around I-77 corridor. I actually don’t think I’ve ever seen models show this much agreement. And the fact that it’s less than 48 hours out makes me feel Charlotte is in a good position to see snow. Obviously, things can and will change but having the Lee Trough on our side is doing is a huge favor, much like it does during summertime storms. But like summertime storms it’s hard to nail down where exactly those storms set up. So, there is likely to be some disappointment for some of us. But if we end up with a 2-4 inch snow, I will call that a win for the rest of the winter. The NE can have their fabulous February too as far as I’m concerned. Having back to back storms like this is such a rarity for us. And that in itself is pretty damn exciting if you ask me. Good luck to everyone. I hope we can all score with this one!
 
Hate seeing such a "wack-a-mole" orientation of the precip around CLT on guidance. Such a small window. Euro I score, GFS I'm fringed. Who the heck knows at this point? RGEM verifies I get nothing.

I guess I'm rooting for a nice lee side low to form and have more solid precip blossom to my west to the apps like @griteater mentioned.
 
SnowNiner said:
Hate seeing such a "wack-a-mole" orientation of the precip around CLT on guidance. Such a small window. Euro I score, GFS I'm fringed. Who the heck knows at this point? RGEM verifies I get nothing.

I guess I'm rooting for a nice lee side low to form and have more solid precip blossom to my west to the apps like @griteater mentioned.
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Yeah, that's why I hate relying on these things but for now this all we have to hang out hats on. We really won't know until up to go-time.
 
SnowNiner said:
Hate seeing such a "wack-a-mole" orientation of the precip around CLT on guidance. Such a small window. Euro I score, GFS I'm fringed. Who the heck knows at this point? RGEM verifies I get nothing.

I guess I'm rooting for a nice lee side low to form and have more solid precip blossom to my west to the apps like @griteater mentioned.
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I will say…. The EURO has been very consistent with showing this now for the last few days and has had a ton of support from both the EPS and GEFS
 
SnowNiner said:
Hate seeing such a "wack-a-mole" orientation of the precip around CLT on guidance. Such a small window. Euro I score, GFS I'm fringed. Who the heck knows at this point? RGEM verifies I get nothing.

I guess I'm rooting for a nice lee side low to form and have more solid precip blossom to my west to the apps like @griteater mentioned.
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Going to be local winners and losers for sure with a splash of thunder. Euro/HRRR/ARW have the best precip shield back to the west/southwest at the moment.
 
One interesting observation I've noticed is the models that crank the surface low off the coast quicker focus heavier banding in ENC/NE NC. This RAP run was a big reduction in WNC but a big increase in ENC.
 
When I sample the latest point forecasts for various locations in RAH’s area, they’re not matching this morning’s probabilistic snow map. Highest totals are now west and extreme northeast. Highly likely that the afternoon discussion and map update will reflect some changes.
 
Ward Cleaver said:
When I sample the latest point forecasts for various locations in RAH’s area, they’re not matching this morning’s probabilistic snow map. Highest totals are now west and extreme northeast. Highly likely that the afternoon discussion and map update will reflect some changes.
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Yea, and if I recall the snowfall map isn't typically updated till at least 7pm.

My guess is RAH will throw out WWAs for the entire cwa even if some counties are technically below advisory criteria due to uncertainty. GSP too (just not entire cwa).
 
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