Stormsfury
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
NAM was worse at H5 but the surface reflection is all out of wack. It still tries to pump a ton of moisture back towards the eastern Carolinas while underselling the ULL driven stuff back towards the western Carolinas. Even the 3K NAM doesn’t look anything like the 12K.
NCSNOW
Member
Shaggy
Member
Mhx issued a WSW for 2-3 and as high as 4 inches for my area.
Woof 
All Models are locked in the this band… not often you get so much agreement on a mesoscale band 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Also, those bands are typically stronger than modeled .
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Latest rap has over 4 inches in spots in that band getting close to 5 lol, Charlotte gets that lucky pivot
Here was the 00z euro also 
NCSNOW
Member
6Z RDPS
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This sounding lord have mercy.
I’m still skeptical about that dry clot .. also we’re still 1-2 days away here there is room for changesCan see why the Euro wants nothing to do with the SLP precip extending west.
The very thing that is going to dump snow on CLT is killing RDU’s chance at coastal snow. ?
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iGRXY
Member
Best shot for snow at this point for most is going to be the pivoting ULL band. Luckily these things are usually more widespread with precip and have heavier returns within them. I think 2-4” is going to be a strong possibility from GSP to CLT to GSO and yes even down towards Columbia (especially the northern suburbs) as it stand a right now.
Parts of the midlands will get smoked based on h500 / 700mb. too bad it will be 35F.
NCSNOW
Member
For what its worth rest of 6z suite: GFS, FV3 which only goes out to 60 are knocking on the door step of warning criteria snowfall: Assuming its 3 inches in 6 hours In parts of Triad.
Be nice to squeeze about 3-4 out. I still think the coastal guys, especially from SD/Met over to G-Vegas crowd and down to Wilm can score big here. Definitely our Elizabeth City / SE VA posters. It really only takes one little nudge for these guys and jury is gonna be out till it unfolds tomorrow.
"Game of Inches" as they say in football , applies to chasing this soon to be phased storm for the Coastal plain/far NE piedmont crowd.
Be nice to squeeze about 3-4 out. I still think the coastal guys, especially from SD/Met over to G-Vegas crowd and down to Wilm can score big here. Definitely our Elizabeth City / SE VA posters. It really only takes one little nudge for these guys and jury is gonna be out till it unfolds tomorrow.
"Game of Inches" as they say in football , applies to chasing this soon to be phased storm for the Coastal plain/far NE piedmont crowd.
Oh 
Yes I agree… that track is close enough to the coast that precip should be filling in that dry slot… I would watch the HRRR in coming runs to see if it fills it in
If we can just not waste precip on initial rain we could really score here.
This is mighty depressing watching from Raleigh I need a shift East please ?
NCSNOW
Member
Thats definietly the case for your area. I sit right on the line of both and preferably for myself would feel more confident in the coastal winding up and staying tugged in tight than depending on some upper level energy getting lined up just right in a pivot. This would require the ULL to stack quicker along SC coast so its deepening as it rides in tight up the NC coast, Course , there is a way to score both ways. But west of 85 no doubt your rooting for pivoting ULL. I have pretty decent/ not perfect odds whichever way it plays out.
What is the total accumulation? Trying to see what it’s showing In Columbia sc?
Your bulls eye will be fairfield county north per 06z euro with almost .5 qpf
This just isn’t something that would help Raleigh much, as this is more geared to helping the western Piedmont… CLT metro to the Triad and west. I still think if the surface low follows the track the Euro is showing, Raleigh will get in on more from that than what’s being depicted
Getting inch mean all the way down i26 in SC to Charleston. Wow I honestly think it’s possible with this setup.
Based on the soundings, it should be solidly snow even while the surface depicts rain… perhaps there’s a bit of drizzle very initially while the lowest levels become saturated, but as soon as the rates get beyond that the temperature crashes to freezing in a matter of minutes
Yeah I’m not concerned about that aspect of the setup either
Are we dealing with higher ratios down here like RAH was mentioning for the Raleigh area?
Snippet from MHX’s overnight AFD
“
Accumulation amounts remain notably uncertain, dependent on the track and timing of the low offshore and, perhaps to a greater extent, the character of the aforementioned weak inland troughing, which could abate CAA and limit the wrap-around moisture transport, limiting accumulation totals. Unfortunately, not much confidence increase in how these features will behave since the last forecast update, with a nearly persistent snowfall accumulation forecast mainly 2-3 inches across the US Hwy 64/264 corridor trending to little to no accumulation south of New Bern, which is representative of a blend of the models which seem to be resolving the rapidly deepening offshore low the best. A Winter Storms Watch has been issued for the these counties along US Hwy 64/264 given the potential for 3 inches of accumulation, with locally higher amounts possible. It is also worth noting that, dependent on how long the snowfall persists into the day Saturday as the gradient is tightening along the Northern Outer Banks, Blizzard conditions of gusts > 35 mph and falling snow combining to reduce visibilities to 1/4 mile or less are possible at times”
“
Accumulation amounts remain notably uncertain, dependent on the track and timing of the low offshore and, perhaps to a greater extent, the character of the aforementioned weak inland troughing, which could abate CAA and limit the wrap-around moisture transport, limiting accumulation totals. Unfortunately, not much confidence increase in how these features will behave since the last forecast update, with a nearly persistent snowfall accumulation forecast mainly 2-3 inches across the US Hwy 64/264 corridor trending to little to no accumulation south of New Bern, which is representative of a blend of the models which seem to be resolving the rapidly deepening offshore low the best. A Winter Storms Watch has been issued for the these counties along US Hwy 64/264 given the potential for 3 inches of accumulation, with locally higher amounts possible. It is also worth noting that, dependent on how long the snowfall persists into the day Saturday as the gradient is tightening along the Northern Outer Banks, Blizzard conditions of gusts > 35 mph and falling snow combining to reduce visibilities to 1/4 mile or less are possible at times”
Thundersnow 
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
For what it's worth, the 3K NAM looks a lot like the EC/RAP and whoever else may be in that camp.
That’s so difficult to say. I always lean on climo around here when it comes to ratios, because it’s so hard to get much above 10-12:1 here… I thought last week may be the exception but we still just managed 13:1.
SnowNiner
Member
I am always concerned about a rain to snow transition. Especially when NWS mentions it in their discussion. I think it's reasonable we lose a bit of qpf in the changeover.
Shame we're pitting east versus west here. Hate to get the mesolow and leave eastern folks out, hate to get tucked coastal and leave us out. Wish we could get both. Frankly not sure which is going happen.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Here's the 3K showing a nice evolution of the band associated with the upper trough. I hate relying on these things. They can be fickle and can also disappear like a fart in the wind. But if these trends remain steady today then WSW may be needed for the 85 corridor from CLT to the Triad. Best of luck to everyone.
By the way: TD now has precip maps for the EC.
By the way: TD now has precip maps for the EC.
See how that thing dives down at the tip? If it weren't for the "meh" temps, I would say that the Midlands 100% jackpot with this look.. but the Central areas are just so darn warm.