Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

[BullCityWx]

T

That SREF NMB was only 5mb off from being January 2000.View attachment 110471

So the other one is weaker but not by much

 

[Flotown]

View attachment 110470

I know it ain't much but can u show west??

 

[griteater]

That SREF NMB was only 5mb off from being January 2000.View attachment 110471

Models have improved...maybe instead of 2 hours of time to prepare we'll have 2 days this time

 

[BullCityWx]

I know it ain't much but can u show west??

Nothing really much west of the Savannah River

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Why

 

[BullCityWx]

@Myfrotho704_ your mean is 15z

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Okay okay haha

 

[BullCityWx]

Is that NMB the logical end of the 18z NAM?

 

[BelmontWX79]

I mean the SREF did consistently show higher QPF further west than many models with last week's storm but that was probably just dumb luck.

 

[CaryWx]

How reliable is the SREF at this range? I don't know all that much about it.

 

[iGRXY]

How reliable is the SREF at this range? I don't know all that much about it.

It’s basically the ensembles on the NAM so it’s usually telling of what to expect from the upcoming NAM run. It’s still way outside of its range right now.

But it’s also matching well with other guidance of shifting things further and further west so it may not be in another solar system like it usually is.

 

[Rain Cold]

How reliable is the SREF at this range? I don't know all that much about it.

The SREF is terrible. Believe it at your own peril.

Ok, there's my obligatory SREF bash post since it worked last time. Gotta stay with what works.

On another note, we should start to see the Euro get a clue in the next day or so. It took it a while last time, poor thing.

 

[CaryWx]

It’s basically the ensembles on the NAM so it’s usually telling of what to expect from the upcoming NAM run. It’s still way outside of its range right now.

But it’s also matching well with other guidance of shifting things further and further west so it may not be in another solar system like it usually is.

Thanks. So better range for it is 24-36hrs or so?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS was a very very slight improvement

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

Sref should never be used at all. The absolute worst- never trust them

 

[KyloG]

18z Op GFS v/s 18z EPS

Very impressive to be 84 hours out and literally on top of each other.

 

[Shaggy]

18z Op GFS v/s 18z EPS

Very impressive to be 84 hours out and literally on top of each other.
View attachment 110475

The rgem did great with Saturdays event and I will be eagerly watching it from here on in. If I can align with the gfs and the euro then I will start to feel better about this happening

 

[Clem282340]

It’s basically the ensembles on the NAM so it’s usually telling of what to expect from the upcoming NAM run. It’s still way outside of its range right now.

But it’s also matching well with other guidance of shifting things further and further west so it may not be in another solar system like it usually is.

how much further west do you think that this storm will shift

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Saw on Twitter .. just another model output you know the deal .. this one is the geos model

 

[Chazwin]

The SREF is terrible. Believe it at your own peril.

Ok, there's my obligatory SREF bash post since it worked last time. Gotta stay with what works.

On another note, we should start to see the Euro get a clue in the next day or so. It took it a while last time, poor thing.

Well I will join you in bashing the SREF as I still have bad memories of February 2015… also I’m keeping my word and no longer bashing the ICON after it started the good trends to a decent snow for me last week… so I got to have a model to bash. That being said if the SREF is on to something here and I end up with a 3”+ snowfall out of this, I will no longer bash it