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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
RAP time. This should be interesting
Those snow totals chance charts are senseless. Idk why mets do that.
Stormsfury
Member
GFS erroneously develops the SFC LOW in a convective squall (QLCS) ... sureeeee.
snowlover91
Member
GFS issue is the northern vort it shifted EAST whereas none of the other 00z models have that vort east like the GFS did. Either GFS is seeing something they’re not or it just is completely missing something. 
snowlover91
Member
By contrast here is the 00z RGEM. Notice it’s further west. Tiny shifts make all the difference.
CMC looks like a pretty good step in the right direction at H5
snowlover91
Member
Cmc also has that northern vort west and not east like the gfs shows. Makes a huge difference in downstream implications. 
Oh 
You love to see it 
RAP digging even more
Prestige Worldwide
Member
This is going to be an epic storm for all of us
NCSNOW
Member
Canadian family of models made big shift west tonight.
You've been a good place the whole time. It's just amounts you are down to figuring out
Oh boy 
BHS1975
Member
RAP is a woof 
We know we can’t trust the NAM .. I mean we know that right? Okay but maybe our big storms can’t be caught in advance .. something like this phased bomb potential just like JAN 2000 the models never really picked up on it until 24-48 hours out .. maybe that’s how close we need to be for models to really be able to see this complex situation unfold .. because literally every small tweak matters maybe the models just still aren’t built to catch these types of systems
snowlover91
Member
UK much improved at 5h.
A lot of these short range models look similar to the NAM except that damn dry slot .. is this genuine convective feedback issues? Will there be more moisture in place .. hmm
Ended off with this 
BHS1975
Member
Yeah boi 
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Hypsometric
Member
So the NAM misses our last storm completely and doesn’t show a lick of precip 24-48 hours out.. now it’s the one leading the charge into a big snow storm 24-48 hours out .. I mean good grief if this model ends up completely wrong (which I suspect has to happen right?) I will absolutely never forgive it and or never believe it from this moment forward. I already had less than 10% confidence in it after last weekend but after this weekend .. it will be unforgivable and lose all its credibility
UK is 1-3 for a lot of the state with localized bands of warning criteria snow .. fun and much improved
CMC looks closest to what I think will happen. A more tucked sfc low that yields a decent snow in East-Central and parts of E NC, but not a huge snow. Then the backside of the storm will fill in snow across most of NC and parts of N and C SC with the approaching trough - some pockets of decent snow with that trailing backside
BHS1975
Member
snowlover91
Member
Only use for the NAM is to see what trends it shows in the short term as an indication of what the rest of the model suite might do. It showed the faster southern shortwave which every other model followed except the GFS. That and the northern wave being further west are the two keys.
Euro looks a tick better at H5
Columbia SC !! 
Weenies must be crashing WeatherBell. I can’t get the 00z Euro to load right now!!!
??
Euro has CLT with snow from 10pm Friday to 6am Saturday
Philconnors
Member
Watch for some decent snow showers in the STRONG NW flow in central AL. That’s some serious CAA going on Saturday.
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ajr
Member
Been noticing that the Euro is consistently putting out higher totals than other models for the mountains along the NC/TN border. Does anyone know what’s causing that?