Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

[KyloG]

Early on in the run is so key...a slightly weaker and less diggy southern energy is what's helping. We need it to come on out, and the weaker it is the quicker it comes out I would think.

Such a delicate balance....it's no wonder its so dang hard to get snow here.

That little piece of energy getting left behind in SoCal helps it seems.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Wasnt that historic for almost all of NC?

 

[Chazwin]

And about 3 more shifts away from lol

I think we're going to continue to see this thing power up. Just fingers crossed it can stay out there a little bit. I'm serious....someone nearby is going to get smoked. If we're wishing, might as well go ahead and find a wave in the arctic jet to drop in and go for broke. It's been a long time since we've had one to put in the legend book.

Agree with all this. I’ve just now been able to get caught up things as it’s been a busy day at work… last week of the fiscal year. Looking at the trends today there is definitely some reason for excitement right now… especially for those of us along and east of I-77 in NC and even down into north central SC. The one thing that I’m a little bit worried about is the possibility that this thing takes on a negative tilt too soon and then we have to worry about our old friend the warm nose again

 

[Shaggy]

Wasnt that historic for almost all of NC?

It was a d for the last 40 years it's been the bar we always want to reach but never do. The 1980 storm is a very rare event and while we see similarities it's such a high bar to.meet

 

[packfan98]

Wasnt that historic for almost all of NC?

 

[griteater]

What’s in the gulf? Near panhandle?

The trend loop is just showing how the precip is getting started earlier to the west. Doubt we'll be able to get the sfc low going as far west as the NE gulf, but let's see where we go from here

 

[Deleted member 1449]

I'm almost certain that the March '80 storm got cranking in the Gulf, which we will need now if we want a repeat of any kind.

 

[tempo47]

Any chance GA/AL sees anything from this the way its trending?

 

[Ollie Williams]

View attachment 110450

Here's what the storm looked like at the surface:

 

[Zander98al]

Any chance GA/AL sees anything from this the way its trending?

I'f we keep having a westward trend, and the low getting more organized in the gulf, it seems like we would.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Any chance GA/AL sees anything from this the way its trending?

Normally I would say absolutely not. But that was a bizarrely major shift and I’m not sure it isn’t a blip.


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[BHS1975]

View attachment 110450

I was in Carteret county and the drifts where massive. Don't know how they got a good measure.


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[ILMRoss]

as it stands now we do not have march 1980 on our hands, but i looked up the case study for it and was just generally completely floored at the similarities. would not take many more 10 mile tweaks to the southwest for this to become truly memorable. we've already gone from flizzard to uhh this could be an event in like 12 hours

 

[griteater]

If you have the heart and soul to rummage thru more GFS Ensemble members, here you go (images are 6 hrs apart....all we got)

 

[SD]

And about 3 more shifts away from lol

I think we're going to continue to see this thing power up. Just fingers crossed it can stay out there a little bit. I'm serious....someone nearby is going to get smoked. If we're wishing, might as well go ahead and find a wave in the arctic jet to drop in and go for broke. It's been a long time since we've had one to put in the legend book.

It's weird for you to be more bullish than me, unsure how to handle myself. I'd really like to get the vorticity closer to the US or in the US before getting way on board thing is that'll be with only around 24 hours to go. I do like the idea of a general dusting to 2 around here

 

[tramadoc]

Here's what the storm looked like at the surface:

What you’re showing says 1982

Edit: saw you changed it.

 

[Ollie Williams]

What you’re showing says 1982

Yeah, I fixed it -- the one you quoted is the correct one.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GFS snowfall trend for today's runs...someone living clean in NE NC.

View attachment 110429

Tired of being trolled lol

Beautiful just beautiful

Notice how most models and their ensembles continue to trend towards the CIPS analog projections. It’s good to trust what’s happened in the past to understand what can happen in the future. This looks to be a perfect example .. I wonder if models continue to trend that way to something actually close to that CIPS analog snowfall @KyloG was so nice to share with us

 

[Downeastnc]

I was in Carteret county and the drifts where massive. Don't know how they got a good measure.


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They didnt, there were 5-7 ft drifts everywhere, we could not stick a yardstick in the snow anywhere and still see it...

 

[superjames1992]

I'm almost certain that the March '80 storm got cranking in the Gulf, which we will need now if we want a repeat of any kind.

Indeed, but January 2000, for example, got cranking in the Atlantic, IIRC. Definitely going to be hard to throw precip further west than the Piedmont without it getting started up in the Gulf, though.