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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

crecre9 said:
This is a positive trend on the NAM for the last three models run. Maybe it can continue and come more west?View attachment 110436
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Id say anything is in the realm of possibility, if I were a betting man I'd say we may see a few more trends west and then it'll lock in. My ultimate opinion was this was going back to it's OG forecast run that started all this. It'd. Be icing on the cake if this thing was off to the races when it moves through the gulf.
 
Faco Thomas said:
Looks like SC and maybe far eastern GA isn't done yet. The snow is inching futher south each run on the GFS. The NAM even prints out some snow for the Midlands. Only if we can get the Low to bomb out off the coast of GA/SC instead of off the coast NC, that would be amazing for many of us. I wonder what would it take for that to happen?
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I think our best shot is for models to keep sending this thing negative tilt sooner and sooner and take our chances with a bombing low to our south tugging poleward. We really need that thing to get going sooner.
 
Beautiful just beautiful

1643468400-7xdUwxPgPJ4.png
 
SD said:
You ain't lying. That's one more shift away from :)
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And about 3 more shifts away from :( lol

I think we're going to continue to see this thing power up. Just fingers crossed it can stay out there a little bit. I'm serious....someone nearby is going to get smoked. If we're wishing, might as well go ahead and find a wave in the arctic jet to drop in and go for broke. It's been a long time since we've had one to put in the legend book.
 
This is one of those cases where the eastern peidmont/ENC might get a legit storm, but western areas still manage to squeeze out a couple inches, unless we amplify way more. this ain’t a typical Miller A depicted by the GEFS ens, it’s a amped one. I’d favor amplification trends over eastern trends unless energy out west tries to feel the PNA ridge, get tucked in, and get stuck, and or the energy out west becomes to amped and gets stuck, we need a fast clean entry of the SS energy, and the northern stream can do the rest, we need entry of the northern stream quicker out of Canada/but further west for a good tilt and deeper trough base, and we could use that peice of energy that seemingly boosts the tilt (which many have mentioned). deeper trough base is responsible for Better CAA in all levels. Honestly the biggest issues is the fail options I stated
 
KyloG said:
The trends of the GEFS past 5 runs is nuts...

View attachment 110446
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It's very close to the date / time that shall not be named. Will be interesting to see how other guidance responds to this idea. I had figured the Euro would have done something like this by now, with it backing off and GFS taking over for the general idea. Since the Euro has super small baby steps to a better solution, this interests me how it pans out and the eventual winner.
 
griteater said:
With the deeper trough, GFS is trending toward getting the precip going earlier here in GA, and with colder temperatures aloft

Ga9yDrg.gif
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What’s in the gulf? Near panhandle?
 
Shawn said:
It's very close to the date / time that shall not be named. Will be interesting to see how other guidance responds to this idea. I had figured the Euro would have done something like this by now, with it backing off and GFS taking over for the general idea. Since the Euro has super small baby steps to a better solution, this interests me how it pans out and the eventual winner.
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What’s your feeling as of now for Midlands @Shawn?
 
KyloG said:
The trends of the GEFS past 5 runs is nuts...

View attachment 110446
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Amazing trends to say the least. The trough is digging futher South and west. The Low pressure is also trending stronger futher south as well. NE North Carolina and SE Virigna should love what they're seeing right now. This is appears to be the making of a huge and powerful storm for them. Also this isn't far away from being a bigger storm for Central NC and maybe even down towards Central SC as well.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is one of those cases where the eastern peidmont/ENC might get a legit storm, but western areas still manage to squeeze out a couple inches, unless we amplify way more. this ain’t a typical Miller A depicted by the GEFS ens, it’s a amped one. I’d favor amplification trends over eastern trends unless energy out west tries to feel the PNA ridge, get tucked in, and get stuck, and or the energy out west becomes to amped and gets stuck, we need a fast clean entry of the SS energy, and the northern stream can do the rest, we need entry of the northern stream quicker for a good tilt and deeper trough base, and we could use that peice of energy that seemingly boosts the tilt (which many have mentioned). deeper trough base is responsible for Better CAA in all levels. Honestly the biggest issues is the fail options I stated
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Yeah getting the trough deeper and doing that quicker is the ticket.....colder and more precip. Here is a speed max dropping down into the backside of the trough at 500mb which helps (North Dakota to North Florida). 2nd image is a trend loop on that sucker at hr78

ip0ViPX.gif


uduSa1R.gif
 
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