iGRXY
Member
GFS actually looks a little further east with the SW at 42 lololol
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
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'fraid that leaves a gap over the Triangle though
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I think it depends on where you are.
-12 to -18 deg C.....maximized at -15 deg C
-12 to -17 C
Wow yeah RGEM really picking up on those localized bands that can develop over the Carolina’s .. simply won’t know where those bands develop until almost go time .. also I like the beefing up of precip overall for most of NC
I agree. For Wake County I could see us in the dry slot if things set as the models have been showing lately. I’ve seen that happen a few times with Lee side trough setups.
Yep and latest
18z gfs confirming this as well. Seeing it on nearly all the models except maybe the NAM. Have to see where HRRR sets it up when the time comes
It could. I remember in the January 2003 storm, the Triangle was in that area of much lighter totals… these set ups tend to favor CLT metro up to the Triad
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Even at that, it looks like a really cold column.
D
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Gfs has it
GFS 3hr QPF progression
CLT jackpot
lexxnchloe
Member
Somehow that looks better to me for eastern areas. No doubt we will see if this corrects more west in later runs. That is a nice band out west.
Jessy89
Member
This will be a decent snow for the mountains. Probably blank the western upstate and fire back up again for the eastern upstate and really dump a decent amount on the eastern Carolinas especially eastern NC
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Yeah I’m certainly fine without being in the jackpot of mesoscale band development 60-80 hours out .. if it holds at 10-24 hours I’m crying but these usually over preform for most involved whenever I see something like this.. plus with NWS talking about those rapidly rising ratios in these bands .. have to assume an over preformed is incoming for someone
If that happened we could hear the screaming and gnashing of teeth. That and shotgun breeches being slammed shut.
I’m not buying the Nantucket jackpot yet. Heaviest totals should shift westward.
iGRXY
Member
Areas along and east of highway 25 in the upstate probably get in on some decent snow from the ULL rotating through.
This certainly could happen but the set up and dynamics here are different I'm afraid. Lots of agreement right now between models for this to actually occur as plotted. Dependent on where it sets up though of course. Have to see what 0z NAM does now. Is it cave time?
lexxnchloe
Member
Here is WXrisks rather detailed map. He mentions 18z RGEM to the rescue but i cant find what he is referring to. Anyway, here is the map and you can find out his thoughts.
Jessy89
Member
This is exciting, lots of 700mb lift/vertical velocity, probably signaling thundersnow/heavy convective snow, it’s legit when you even see elevated K-index numbers over this which is the index for thunderstorms 
packfan98
Moderator
Van Denton just showed the in house IBM model and said it did well with last week’s system.
Almost look like a meso low could be trying to cut off around Florence sc, that could lead to a lift for central sc and nc.
Meanwhile, the 18z ICON came in and jackpotted Raleigh with a streamer. And Roxboro, which makes it believable.
Northwest shift?
NC is very greedy when it comes to snow.. We want our own set up with our own meso low than won’t give anyone but us snow.. take that NE
The infamous upstate mesolow showing up here on the 18z GFS and 12z UKMet (1st 2 images below).....forms in the lee of the Apps as the trough swings thru, with associated area of low level convergence and rising motion
I don't think this will be nearly as dynamic as Jan 2003. Looking at similar setups in the past, the one that this looks most similar to to me is Feb 2013 (has been mentioned in the thread). Loop and NC snow map for that storm included at bottom. Hopefully, this one will produce more down east associated with the sfc low.
Let's see how the models trend in terms of strength of the trough and associated 500mb vort max that swing through (and placement / track). Precip output specifics can be a wildcard / less predictable in this setup. Temperatures may be a bit warm Fri aftn before crashing with any significant precip that develops into the evening
I don't think this will be nearly as dynamic as Jan 2003. Looking at similar setups in the past, the one that this looks most similar to to me is Feb 2013 (has been mentioned in the thread). Loop and NC snow map for that storm included at bottom. Hopefully, this one will produce more down east associated with the sfc low.
Let's see how the models trend in terms of strength of the trough and associated 500mb vort max that swing through (and placement / track). Precip output specifics can be a wildcard / less predictable in this setup. Temperatures may be a bit warm Fri aftn before crashing with any significant precip that develops into the evening
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I think this saved my winter of ‘12, from being a total disaster! Had something like this come thru around noon, started as graupel and 41 degrees, snowed very hard for like 20 minutes, temp dropped to 31 and had about an inch accumulation, that was it for that horrible winter, but was nice to witnessThe infamous upstate mesolow showing up here on the 18z GFS and 12z UKMet (1st 2 images below).....forms in the lee of the Apps as the trough swings thru, with associated area of low level convergence and rising motion
I don't think this will be nearly as dynamic as Jan 2003. Looking at similar setups in the past, the one that this looks most similar to to me is Feb 2013 (has been mentioned in the thread). Loop and NC snow map for that storm included at bottom. Hopefully, this one will produce more down east associated with the sfc low.
Let's see how the models trend in terms of strength of the trough and associated 500mb vort max that swing through (and placement / track). Precip output specifics can be a wildcard / less predictable in this setup. Temperatures may be a bit warm Fri aftn before crashing with any significant precip that develops into the evening
Think you meant '13?? But yeah, I see 2.0 inches logged at GSP (02/16/13)
pcbjr
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Mods , You can hang me or tie me to the whippping post for placing this here, but at least it may get noticed ... is the site terribly slow? All other websites are zipping along nicely; here is taking forever to load ... "just asking for a friend" ...
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Yeah this reminds more of the February 2013 set up, but I think with more coverage overall like what these in house models are picking up on. Actually a week before the January 23,2003 storm, there was another one with a Lee side trough that produced widespread 2-4” snowfall across the areas that the Euro and these in house models are showing… that storm like the February 2013 storm saw temperatures crash extremely fast… CLT went from the mid 40s to low 30s in under 30 minutes as snow began fallingThe infamous upstate mesolow showing up here on the 18z GFS and 12z UKMet (1st 2 images below).....forms in the lee of the Apps as the trough swings thru, with associated area of low level convergence and rising motion
I don't think this will be nearly as dynamic as Jan 2003. Looking at similar setups in the past, the one that this looks most similar to to me is Feb 2013 (has been mentioned in the thread). Loop and NC snow map for that storm included at bottom. Hopefully, this one will produce more down east associated with the sfc low.
Let's see how the models trend in terms of strength of the trough and associated 500mb vort max that swing through (and placement / track). Precip output specifics can be a wildcard / less predictable in this setup. Temperatures may be a bit warm Fri aftn before crashing with any significant precip that develops into the evening
somethings going on out of our control as the server/resources have been fine today on our end.
18z CMC looks better with that Lee side band and everything else in general 
lexxnchloe
Member
It seems to be better for most. Is it alot closer to the coast?
Than Bermuda
It seems to like the upper level energy more than it previously did, though. Hopefully, that will do some work.
I’m noticing how low placement hasn’t changed tremendously yet precip shield looks more expansive