iGRXY
Member
GFS actually looks a little further east with the SW at 42 lololol
'fraid that leaves a gap over the Triangle thoughYes it’s a very good look. The other thing is… this isn’t just an ULL… this a Lee side trough/ULL… it’s a set up that has done very well for the Piedmont over the years and it’s something that has and is gaining more support from models… both operational and ensembles
I think it depends on where you are.'fraid that leaves a gap over the Triangle though
-12 to -18 deg C.....maximized at -15 deg COkay, the DGZ is wherever you are from -10 to -15 in the atmosphere, right?
-12 to -17 COkay, the DGZ is wherever you are from -10 to -15 in the atmosphere, right?
Wow yeah RGEM really picking up on those localized bands that can develop over the Carolina’s .. simply won’t know where those bands develop until almost go time .. also I like the beefing up of precip overall for most of NC
I agree. For Wake County I could see us in the dry slot if things set as the models have been showing lately. I’ve seen that happen a few times with Lee side trough setups.I think it depends on where you are.
18z gfs confirming this as well. Seeing it on nearly all the models except maybe the NAM. Have to see where HRRR sets it up when the time comesI agree. For Wake County I could see us in the dry slot if things set as the models have been showing lately. I’ve seen that happen a few times with Lee side trough setups.
It could. I remember in the January 2003 storm, the Triangle was in that area of much lighter totals… these set ups tend to favor CLT metro up to the Triad'fraid that leaves a gap over the Triangle though
Even at that, it looks like a really cold column.-12 to -18 deg C.....maximized at -15 deg C
Somehow that looks better to me for eastern areas. No doubt we will see if this corrects more west in later runs. That is a nice band out west.
Yeah I’m certainly fine without being in the jackpot of mesoscale band development 60-80 hours out .. if it holds at 10-24 hours I’m crying but these usually over preform for most involved whenever I see something like this.. plus with NWS talking about those rapidly rising ratios in these bands .. have to assume an over preformed is incoming for someoneCLT jackpotView attachment 110740
Obx gets more than the NE. Lock it in
I’m not buying the Nantucket jackpot yet. Heaviest totals should shift westward.
This certainly could happen but the set up and dynamics here are different I'm afraid. Lots of agreement right now between models for this to actually occur as plotted. Dependent on where it sets up though of course. Have to see what 0z NAM does now. Is it cave time?Yeah I’m certainly fine without being in the jackpot of mesoscale band development 60-80 hours out .. if it holds at 10-24 hours I’m crying but these usually over preform for most involved whenever I see something like this.. plus with NWS talking about those rapidly rising ratios in these bands .. have to assume an over preformed is incoming for someone
Areas along and east of highway 25 in the upstate probably get in on some decent snow from the ULL rotating through.
Almost look like a meso low could be trying to cut off around Florence sc, that could lead to a lift for central sc and nc.
Northwest shift?Meanwhile, the 18z ICON came in and jackpotted Raleigh. And Roxboro, which makes it believable.
View attachment 110754
NC is very greedy when it comes to snow.. We want our own set up with our own meso low than won’t give anyone but us snow.. take that NEAlmost look like a meso low could be trying to cut off around Florence sc, that could lead to a lift for central sc and nc.
I think this saved my winter of ‘12, from being a total disaster! Had something like this come thru around noon, started as graupel and 41 degrees, snowed very hard for like 20 minutes, temp dropped to 31 and had about an inch accumulation, that was it for that horrible winter, but was nice to witnessThe infamous upstate mesolow showing up here on the 18z GFS and 12z UKMet (1st 2 images below).....forms in the lee of the Apps as the trough swings thru, with associated area of low level convergence and rising motion
I don't think this will be nearly as dynamic as Jan 2003. Looking at similar setups in the past, the one that this looks most similar to to me is Feb 2013 (has been mentioned in the thread). Loop and NC snow map for that storm included at bottom. Hopefully, this one will produce more down east associated with the sfc low.
Let's see how the models trend in terms of strength of the trough and associated 500mb vort max that swing through (and placement / track). Precip output specifics can be a wildcard / less predictable in this setup. Temperatures may be a bit warm Fri aftn before crashing with any significant precip that develops into the evening
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Think you meant '13?? But yeah, I see 2.0 inches logged at GSP (02/16/13)I think this saved my winter of ‘12, from being a total disaster! Had something like this come thru around noon, started as graupel and 41 degrees, snowed very hard for like 20 minutes, temp dropped to 31 and had about an inch accumulation, that was it for that horrible winter, but was nice to witness
Yeah this reminds more of the February 2013 set up, but I think with more coverage overall like what these in house models are picking up on. Actually a week before the January 23,2003 storm, there was another one with a Lee side trough that produced widespread 2-4” snowfall across the areas that the Euro and these in house models are showing… that storm like the February 2013 storm saw temperatures crash extremely fast… CLT went from the mid 40s to low 30s in under 30 minutes as snow began fallingThe infamous upstate mesolow showing up here on the 18z GFS and 12z UKMet (1st 2 images below).....forms in the lee of the Apps as the trough swings thru, with associated area of low level convergence and rising motion
I don't think this will be nearly as dynamic as Jan 2003. Looking at similar setups in the past, the one that this looks most similar to to me is Feb 2013 (has been mentioned in the thread). Loop and NC snow map for that storm included at bottom. Hopefully, this one will produce more down east associated with the sfc low.
Let's see how the models trend in terms of strength of the trough and associated 500mb vort max that swing through (and placement / track). Precip output specifics can be a wildcard / less predictable in this setup. Temperatures may be a bit warm Fri aftn before crashing with any significant precip that develops into the evening
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Mods , You can hang me or tie me to the whippping post for placing this here, but at least it may get noticed ... is the site terribly slow? All other websites are zipping along nicely; here is taking forever to load ... "lust asking for a friend" ...
It seems to be better for most. Is it alot closer to the coast?18z CMC looks better with that Lee side band and everything else in general View attachment 110765
Than BermudaIt seems to be better for most. Is it alot closer to the coast?
I’m noticing how low placement hasn’t changed tremendously yet precip shield looks more expansive18z CMC looks better with that Lee side band and everything else in general View attachment 110765